Showing posts with label preview. Show all posts
Showing posts with label preview. Show all posts

Thursday, April 30, 2009

Respect Thine Enemy: 10 Things to Like About the Canes

10) Hartford connections
Let's get this one out of the way early. While the Hurricanes will never be completely forgiven for breaking the heart of Hartford, they deserve credit for embracing their history instead of wiping it away. Many Whalers personnel, from the broadcast team to the equipment managers, are still with the Canes. The Hurricanes have honored Ron Francis and Glen Wesley with emotional number-retirement ceremonies, and the goal horn from the Hartford Civic Center is still in use at Canes games. As far as possible, they've given longtime Whalers fans an opportunity to remain connected with "their" team.


No. Just... no.

9) Paul Maurice
You have to respect this guy, considering how much crap he took in Toronto. Hard as it is to believe, Maurice is now the 6th most experienced active coach in the NHL. Along the way he has always been civil and low-key, in spite of virtually-nonstop speculation about his job security.

8) Ray Whitney
When "Jonesy" is considered a book-title-worthy nickname, you know the NHL is getting short on high-quality handles. So when you come across a guy who goes by "The Wizard", it's worth keeping an eye on him. What you find with Whitney is perhaps the league's most underrated clutch scorer. Since the lockout, he has 15 points in 15 games against Boston.


If McFarlane ever makes a Brind'Amour figure...

7) Rod Brind'Amour
Rod the Bod is a piece of the NHL circa 1950, time-warped to the present. Big, mean, and ugly as sin, he's exactly the guy you want in your foxhole. He's probably the best faceoff guy in the league, has captained a Cup team and is frequently cited as the hardest-working player on ice.

6) Cam Ward
Everything that Carey Price was supposed to be, Cam Ward has already become. It takes a huge amount of strength and character to win the Conn Smythe as a rookie goalie, but even more to be an NHL star without an ego problem. Ward is intense, yet unflappable in big games. The last time he played, he proved more stable in a 7th game than Martin Brodeur.

5) Ronnie Franchise
He's only the classiest player you'll ever live to see. And also a two-time Cup winner, Hall of Famer and the 4th highest scorer in league history... 4th! He's now behind the bench in Carolina, and the heir apparent to the head coaching position. That's the equivalent of Ray Bourque being groomed to take over the Bruins bench.

That's more like it!

4) The RBC Center
Gameday in Raleigh is unique. They tailgate college-football style at the arena. They play Ric Flair clips on the Jumbotron. Their mascot is a pig. And it's loud as hell in the arena. Given some time to become more sophisticated about the sport, the Hurricanes fanbase will become the Sun Belt equivalent to Calgary's Sea of Red.









Bring earplugs.

3) Eric Staal
People who like hockey usually like Eric Staal. He's big, fast, skilled, and aggressive. He makes big plays in big games, including a last-minute Game 7 winner against Brodeur this season. He's shown that he can lead a Cup run. He was the NHL '08 cover star, and the All-Star Game MVP. Oh, and he's 24. Twenty-four.

2) Teamwork
Carolina is not a team of superstars. They win because they outwork and outhustle their opponents. Guys like Staal and Whitney and Brind'Amour have practically zero mainstream media presence, yet they come up huge again and again when it counts. Though they don't roll 4 lines like Detroit and Boston, the Canes expect every player to contribute to the final outcome -- witness Paul Maurice taking a leap of faith and putting grinder Chad LaRose on the first line late in their series against New Jersey. That's what it means to be a hockey team.

1) They're clutch.
For some reason, this team is charmed when it comes to the playoffs. In 2001 they bounced Montreal and Toronto in successive playoff rounds to make the Finals. In 2006 they won two consecutive 7-game series to take the Cup. This month they upset the Devils and are now considered a dark horse to take out the Bruins. They are money from the goal crease outward. And let's be honest -- once all the NASCAR jokes are set aside, this team generates some serious envy from "traditional" fanbases with their tendency to win through sheer force of will.

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Sunday, March 15, 2009

Bruins vs. Pens: Somehow, This Could End Up Being Lame

You would think this matchup would be one of those A-plus, scalper's wetdream, destiny-making games. The defending Eastern champ on a hot streak, the would-be Eastern champ recovering from a slump, both of them pissed about their recent play, one of them playing for a playoff seed and the other for the President's Trophy. Chara and Malkin. Sid and Savard. Tim Thomas and Sergei Gonchar. The stuff that hockey fans just friggin' love.

But it looks like there might be a little bit of rain at this picnic:

- The goalie matchup will in fact be Fernandez vs. Garon. I taste vomit in the back of my throat.
[edit: glove tap to BewareoftheBear at espn.com for pointing out that Tim Thomas is in fact the likely starter for Boston, at least according to the team website. Looks like Manny is now a true backup...]

- A weird 3:00 starting time... who is watching hockey at 3 in the afternoon?

- Both teams playing back-to-back nights, and both of them were disappointing yesterday. The Bruins narrowly beat the dead-last Isles, the Pens lost to the hopeless Sens in a shootout.

- Neither Raymond Bourque nor Mario Lemieux has announced plans to suit up for this game.

So in spite of the name-brand label, this one looks like a relative dud compared to next Sunday's matchup with the Devils.

Good news -- after this game, the Bruins play only 2 games in their next 12 days. That'll give them some time to breathe and relax before hitting the home stretch.

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Friday, February 27, 2009

Could Boston win the East on Saturday night?

Pardon me while I shamlessly quote myself.

On February 5, I wrote:
If the Bruins can maintain a 10-point gap entering their 2/28 game against Washington, a win in that game would effectively clinch the conference.

Turns out that the Bruins will enter Saturday night's game with a 9-point lead.

So, is it really over if Boston beats the Caps for the second straight time? Not officially, but consider the following scenarios -- each of which assumes that the Bruins win Saturday's game outright:

- The Bruins could mathematically clinch the Eastern Conference title by going 13-5-1 over their final 19 games, a winning percentage of 68% compared to 67% for the season so far.

- If Boston simply cruises through the rest of the season with a .500 record (9-9-1), Washington would need to go 16-3-0 in order to surpass the Bruins.

- If Washington continues to win 62% of their games for the rest of the season, the Bruins would only need to go 7-12 in order to stay ahead of the Caps.

Even if the Caps win, their chances of rallying for the conference title are slim -- especially if the game goes to overtime.

But Thursday's game against Anaheim, in which both Marc Savard and Milan Lucic were injured in pointless late-game fights against the frustrated Ducks, should be a clear lesson as to the importance of closing out your opponents early. Far better for the Bruins to be able to spend the month of March fine-tuning their game and giving extra time off to the guys with bumps and bruises.

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Thursday, February 5, 2009

Can Anyone Catch the Bruins?

Before you read, let me provide a disclaimer: I hate cocky fans who think their team cannot lose. I hate fans who jinx their own team. I hate announcers who say "shutout" with 10 minutes left in the game. The point of this analysis is not to ruin my own team down the stretch.

Nevertheless, we're getting close to that part of the season where we can cautiously project end-game scenarios for each team. Like the guy on CNN who plays with the map on Election Night, we can "call" certain races before all the votes are all tallied. With that in mind, I'm going to call the Eastern Conference race in favor of Boston against every team other than Washington and New Jersey.

What makes this decision interesting is that Washington has a 3-point advantage over the Devils (which is very significant when there is so much ground to cover), but the Devils have played one fewer game and still have two head-to-heads against Boston. In that respect, New Jersey is currently in a better position to make a charge for the Eastern title. For this analysis, I will ignore the head-to-head games (too many W/L scenarios to track) but I will include the Devils' games-played advantage.

Here are a few scenarios to help you handicap the possibility of a last-minute finish:

IMPLOSION: The Bruins inexplicably pull a Senators and fall off the face of the earth. They go 10-20 over their last 30 games.
To catch the Bruins:
Washington must still have a winning record at 16-14.
New Jersey must go 17-12-1, a very respectable stretch run.

MEDIOCRITY: For whatever reason, the Bruins lose their mojo and go an ordinary 15-15.
To catch the Bruins:
Washington would need to go 21-9, considerably better than their current win%.
New Jersey would need to go 22-7-1, or roughly the same win% as the Bruins have this season.

SLIGHT DROPOFF: Boston runs into some tougher competition and goes 20-10, a slight slowdown from their current pace.
To catch the Bruins:
Washington must go 26-4 to tie. Um...
New Jersey must go 27-2-1. Either of these would be legendary comebacks.

EVEN KEEL: Boston just keeps plugging along at its current rate, going 22-8. Based on recent results, this is the most likely scenario.
To catch the Bruins:
The Caps would need a 28-2 record to tie.
New Jersey would need a 29-0-1 streak, challenging the 1979-80 Flyers' record 35-game undefeated streak.

EVEN BETTER: Somehow, the Bruins actually step up their game and go 25-5. Neither the Caps nor Devils could mathematically catch up, even if they won all their remaining games.

Projecting forward:
For every Boston win, and for every Caps and Devils loss, the likelihood of a comeback drops significantly. If the Bruins can maintain a 10-point gap entering their 2/28 game against Washington, a win in that game would effectively clinch the conference.

If that were the case, Boston would play the final 6 weeks of their schedule without any pressure to jockey for playoff positioning. Their only motivation for winning would be to try and get the #1 overall seed from San Jose, to hone their execution in advance of the playoffs, and to keep the roster as healthy and productive as possible.

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Saturday, November 29, 2008

Red Wings vs. Bruins: Stuff To Look Out For

It's a clash of the titans tonight in the marquee matchup of the weekend: Bruins vs. Red Wings in Boston. Each team is #2 in their conference, with games in hand on the #1 seed. Needless to say, this is a true measuring-stick game for both sides and a very possible Finals preview. The matchup is so good that it speaks for itself, but here are a few items to chew on as we lead up to gametime:

- Boston is tied for 2nd in the East in goals-per-game, and is tops in goals-against. The Wings are 2nd and 11th, respectively.

- Detroit's power-play operates at an astounding 32.3%. Boston tops the East at 23.3%.

- Word is now out that Marco Sturm is sidelined with a concussion. Apparently he suffered it in the 11/12 game against the Hawks, played three more matches (scoring two against the Habs) and was finally told to sit. He expects to be back soon, but this is the sort of injury that saps your scoring depth.

- Milan Lucic owned up to throwing an illegal hit from behind against the Isles' Tim Jackman, apologizing via the media. Though it was a relatively minor incident (Jackman was close to the boards and was not injured), Looch says he needs to be more careful in the future. IMO, the NHL is going to have to address this issue as soon as the Cup is paraded off the ice in June, because it's getting worse daily.

- The Wings called up Darren McCarty for last night's game against Columbus, but he reaggravated his groin injury and will not skate. Also, keep an eye on former Bruin d-man Brad Stuart, who is skating with 9 stitches in his leg after being stomped by Alex Tanguay.

- The Globe reports that Manny Fernandez will start in net -- an unusual move but not unprecedented considering Julien has gone with the hot hand so far this season. Chris Osgood has been brutal for the Wings and was not sharp last night against Columbus; don't be surprised if Conklin gets the nod.

- In the past three games, the Bruins' opponents have opened up the game with a lot of body contact -- and it appears to be working in their favor. Montreal outplayed the Bruins through most of their game, Buffalo pulled off an upset win and the Isles kept it close for 40 minutes. Expect the well-coached and very-physical Wings to come out hitting hard tonight.

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Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Bruins vs. Sabres: Stuff To Look Out For (plus other items)

Bruins play in Buffalo tonight after a long layoff. The opponents get much easier after this game; with the exception of Saturday's date with the Red Wings, we won't see another top-5 team until after Christmas.

Things to keep in mind tonight:

- The Sabres will wear their classic road jerseys. It's good for the soul to see them looking like a team that plays on ice skates and not rollerblades.

- Not to make any crazy predictions before Thanksgiving, but a regulation win in this game would put us 13 points ahead of the Sabres with a 3-1-1 record against them head-to-head, and only two matchups left (1/3 and 4/11)... that would pretty much mean we no longer have to worry about them catching up. Not that we should be thinking that way just yet. But I am.

- The Sabres have lost 5 straight. After this game they have the Pens and then the Habs. They play Pittsburgh 3 more times before Christmas. If they don't turn it around in this game, it might not happen at all.

- Ryan Miller usually plays pretty well against us, but last time he melted down and got chased. Will he be intimidated or motivated? We'll see tonight. I suspect he'll play lights-out.

- Buffalo rolls out an outstanding top line, but that's about it. Afinogenov has only scored once this season. Craig Rivet is a -5. Numminen is a great story, but -7 after 20 games is ugly. Still, they're not an easy team to defeat because Lindy Ruff is a great coach. This is a must-win and they should come out fast and furious.

Thoughts on other goings-on leaguewide:

Interesting to see how chippy the Leafs and Thrashers got last night. Combined, these two teams are a veritable chowder of suck, but that just brings frustration to the table and leads to extra intensity. Apparently the Leafs were running Kovalchuk, who finally snapped Bure-style and stood up for himself. Later in the game Jason Blake got explodified by a very illegal jump-check, something we're seeing far too often lately. Check out the highlights here. Leafs fans are now beginning to clamor for an enforcer. Meanwhile, the Thrashers are perhaps the worst-run franchise of all time, at least in terms of player movement.

Patrick Roy's son got suspended for 15 games. No, not that son. The other one. This happened 4 days after Roy's number was retired. Five days after he broke the all-time wins record, the police had to investigate him for domestic battery. Karma has a way of catching up, sometimes quickly, and the way a man runs his family is the truest window into his soul. There is no doubt that Roy was an all-time great. But his legacy shrinks almost daily.

Great writeup on Felix Potvin by Pierre LeBrun. If you liked hockey in the '90s, you probably liked Felix the Cat.

Darren McCarty is now playing in Grand Rapids of the AHL. Claude Lemieux is playing for Worcester. Tragically, Worcester does not play Grand Rapids at all this season.

Keep an eye on Habs/Wings tonight. A win for us and a loss for Montreal would open up a very nice cushion, while the reverse would draw them within striking distance. Meanwhile, we have the Wings on Saturday and it would be nice for them to be a little banged up by the typical Montreal cheapshottery.

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Monday, November 24, 2008

Are The Bruins For Real?

Whether or not you're a Bruins fan -- but especially if you're a Bruins fan -- you're probably asking yourself that question every time you look at the league standings. Improbably, almost inexplicably, the B's have rockted to the top of the Eastern Conference by beating or tying every opponent in the month of November so far. They are now 7 points ahead of Montreal in the division, with a steep advantage in tiebreakers.

Considering the Bruins were widely picked to either miss the playoffs or just make the cut as a bubble team, this is a bit of a shock to the dynamics of the East. Suddenly the Habs are struggling to stay ahead of the Devils. Suddenly the Sabres are on the outside of the bracket looking in. Suddenly the Bruins are playing for home ice in a hypothetical Cup series against the Sharks. To say the least, this is not what we expected to talk about while watching the Lions lose on Thanksgiving.

Let's hang on to that last thought -- it's only Thanksgiving. The playoffs start just after April Fool's Day. It's a long road, a difficult one that will be filled with injuries and momentum swings. Things will almost certainly change, especially if it turns out that this team is just a wintertime mirage. So let's look at a few key factors to see if we can spot the potholes in the road to June Hockey:

Goaltending: The #1 element that can kill a team, and it seems to be completely under control. Tim Thomas is in the wonderful position of performing at an elite level AND approaching each game as an underdog. The All-Star snub works quite nicely for motivation, though it stings less when the selection process is a joke. Manny Fernandez has played brilliantly for the most part, and has not become the locker-room cancer I had expected. It will take a major reversal for this to become an issue.

Schedule: Taking the 12-Step Program approach to the schedule, the Bruins are right on track for discharge. We've almost gotten through Step 4 with flying colors, and are approaching the relatively soft Step 5. But look ahead -- extremely tough stretches in December and Februrary could send this young team off the rails. A distinct lack of long road trips will help, but rest and maturity are going to be much needed in those months. One day at a time...

Distractions: Thankfully, there are none. The biggest "distraction" we've seen this season was Lucic choosing to score a goal instead of fight a goon. This will not be a problem for a well-disciplined squad with good team chemistry.

Return to Earth: Sometimes an individual's overachievement can lift the entire team; usually this ends in heartbreak when reality sets in over the course of the season. Fortunately, the Bruins are not seeing a lot of overachievement at the individual level; other than Thomas, everyone seems to be pretty much on a normal track. This team wins with good coaching, good chemistry and good defense. That doesn't leave much likelihood of a reality check.

Injuries: So far the Bruins have been very, very lucky. Chuck Kobasew was out for a month, but his replacements were adequate and he came back with a vengeance. Ference is out for 6 more weeks, but Matt Hunwick might earn a permanent roster spot in his absence. Those situations won't happen every time. There is still talk that Chara's shoulder is less than 100%; we still hold our breath when Bergeron goes into the corners; Lucic's right fist looks like it got caught in industrial machinery every time he fights. This team is deep and disciplined, but could not survive a major injury to Savard, Thomas or Chara. And that can happen at any time, to any player.


Hot opponents: To begin the season, the B's were in the unenviable position of sharing a division with two of the top three teams in the conference. It looked like it would be one of those frustrating seasons when your team is amazingly talented and focused, but has to settle for a 4th place finish and road ice in the second round. Since then, both the Sabres and Habs have stumbled. The Bruins could put a stake in Buffalo's division-title hopes on Wednesday, but Montreal will be a season-long nemesis. There will also be intense competition in the conference from the improving Penguins, surging Flyers and schizophrenic Rangers. Eventually the winning streak will end, and losing streaks will happen, and that will naturally tighten the race.

So from where I sit, two things are pretty clear:

1) Yes, the Bruins are for real. They are not the sort of front-loaded, streaky team that is likely melt down in the home stretch.

2) The most likely "backslide" scenario is for the Bruins to hit the tough December-through-February schedule, suffer a key injury or three, and start feeling the heat of trying to stay ahead of more media-friendly teams in Pittsburgh and New York.

But for the time being, we've got something pretty sweet to be thankful for on Thursday -- a hard-nosed, hard-working team getting its due.

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Friday, November 21, 2008

Thoughts on Bruins/Sabres, Bruins/Panthers

All good things must come to an end, but this hot streak just seems to stretch on and on. Therefore, I believe, we should be prepared for a major letdown very soon. All things considered, I'd rather it be tonight than on Saturday. But first, the positives:


Bruins/Sabres

- For most of the season so far, Zdeno Chara has had no room to operate. Even on the PP, he always has a defender stuck to him like glue. That's why he's rarely able to unleash his nuclear slapshot, and hasn't been much of a factor as a pointman. So it's odd that the Sabres (who should know better, since they play him 28 times this season) gave Z so much room -- he scored twice, so don't expect them to do it again Wednesday.

- At their best, the Lucic/Savard/Kessel line is just dreamy to watch. Lucic and Savard are to the 2000s what Neely and Oates were to the 90s. Kessel is something different altogether, a pure goal scorer like the Bruins haven't seen in a long, long time.

- One door closes, another opens: Matt Hunwick has a goal, two assists and a +2 in relief of Andrew Ference. He's got great foot speed and a sense of when to jump into the play. Though he still makes the occasional rookie mistake, his career arc will be a lot like Ference's... which makes this early experience invaluable.

- Games against the Sabres are important enough anyway, but after Wednesday the Bruins will only play them twice -- January 2 and April 11. So winning a 4-point divisional game is huge for a team now eyeing a division title.

Bruins/Panthers

- The Panthers are astonishingly low-powered on offense -- Nathan Horton leads them with 11 points (Savard has 25 for Boston).

- Though his stats are poor, Tomas Vokoun is one of the league's elite goaltenders. He can shut you down no matter how you play. Putting him up against Tim Thomas is a great matchup of underrated netminders.

- Jay Bouwmeester still hasn't scored yet this season. Think he's squeezing the stick by now? You better believe he will shoot the puck at every possible opportunity.

- The Bruins have to be very careful not to look past this game to Saturday night, when they visit Montreal for Roy's number retirement. The Montreal media will be on them as soon as this game is over. In a sense, I'd almost rather they lose this one if it helps relieve some pressure against the Habs.

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Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Bruins vs. Blackhawks: Stuff To Look Out For

Tonight the Bruins break a 4-day gameless streak when they visit the Blackhawks for their only matchup this season. Here are a few threads to keep an eye on.

Don't Get Caught Looking: The Bruins, who are playing 4 of the other 5 teams from the Original Six in the next week, have some huge matchups on the schedule. Tomorrow night's game against Montreal will essentially be a grudge match for the division title, and games against the Rangers and Sabres also have major conference implications. It's a textbook setup for the Bruins to come out flat on the road, and get torched by a team in the middle of an important homestand.

Evenly Matched: All the buzz around this game is that the Bruins and Hawks are doppelgangers. Both are young, emerging squads playing for the hearts of their respective cities. Both are focused squarely on the playoffs and developing a winning attitude... with secret hopes that they're witnessing the birth of a dynasty. Both are dealing with an embarrasment of riches in goal. Both come into the game on a hot streak with a division lead within sniffing distance. But their styles are almost entirely opposite -- the Blackhawks have a run-and-gun team stocked with top-shelf talent. The Bruins play tooth-loosening defense and get their offense through depth and tenacity.

Home Cookin': The Blackhawks have not lost a regulation game at home this season (6-0-2). Then again, Boston ended the Sabres' undefeated road record last time they played. It'll be tougher tonight as the Blackhawks are retiring the #3 worn by Pierre Pilote (overdue) and Keith Magnuson. Ideally this would be a distraction, but the Blackhawks have been drawing huge crowds this season and the fans will be expecting a big game.

Matchups: Since they have the advantage on line changes, the Blackhawks will presumably match up their top line of Kane-Toews-Versteeg against the Bruins' 4th line of Thornton-Yelle-Kobasew when possible. I would advise them to do otherwise -- the 4th line has probably been Boston's best at keeping possession of the puck lately. The combination of faceoff prowess, intelligence, speed and hulking body mass have kept the puck squarely in the offensive end of the ice while the Bruins wear down opposing goalscorers. This has been a key... nay, a vital element of their recent success. If I'm Joel Quenneville, I'm matching my scorers against Boston's weaker third line of Sturm-Krejci-Wheeler.

Change Is in the Air?: These teams have a combined Cup drought of 83 years.

Other Previews:
Stanley Cup of Chowder
The Bear Cave
Cornelius Hardenburgh
Wicked Bruins Fan
Hub Hockey
Kynch's Bruins Korner

PS -- Vote for Timmy!

The campaign has begun to elect Tim Thomas to his rightful place in the All-Star game (he was left off the ballot despite currently leading the league in GAA and Save %). Don't forget to go to http://fanballoting.nhl.com/ and vote for him. Blackhawks fans, we'd appreciate the support if you are going there to vote for your own guys... on the Eastern Conference section, just write in Timmy's name.

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Thursday, October 30, 2008

Bruins vs. Flames: Stuff To Look Out For

- Streaks: Boston and Calgary both enter the game on winning streaks -- four straight dubyas for the Flames, three for the Bruins. Also, both teams carry a significant shutout streak -- 5 periods for Calgary, 6 for Boston. If this isn't a setup for a 0-0 shootout, I don't know what is.

- Motivation: Both teams play in tight divisional races, in which every point is crucial. When playing a non-conference opponent in such circumstances, teams tend to lock it down and play for the OT point. Again, if this isn't a setup for a 0-0 shootout...

- A Relief: Calgary hasn't gone to a shootout yet this season. The Bruins haven't won a shootout in 3 tries.

- No Relief: Tim Thomas gets the third straight start, suggesting Claude Julien isn't exactly "rotating" goalies any more. The ball will be squarely in Manny Fernandez's court to match Thomas' hot streak once he gets the chance. Meanwhile, the Kipper has played every game for the Flames and doesn't look like he's getting a break tonight.

- Massive Hits: Phaneuf. Chara. Iginla. Lucic. Break out the seismograph.

- Special Teams: The Bruins and Flames are #9 and #10, respectively, in PP production. Calgary is 9th on the PK, whereas the Bruins are 29th but have killed 7 straight after a slow start. Calgary is 6th in PP opportunities against, Boston is 20th. This all adds up to: don't take dumb penalties.
BONUS STAT: Bruin 4th-liner Petteri Nokelainen has the highest rate of penalties drawn per minute in the NHL.

- Lucic can see: According to WickedBruinsFan, Lucic had been playing without contacts until the Toronto game on Oct. 23rd. Good god, the man was a beast while playing blind! Since then, he's checked a guy through the glass, scored a hat trick, and conked Luongo. Good god.


Other Previews:
The Jumbotron
Stanley Cup of Chowder
Cornelius Hardenberg and the Hockey Blog Adventure
The Bear Cave

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Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Bruins vs. Canucks: Stuff To Look Out For

- Letdown. The Bruins played an exciting, fast-paced, emotionally gratifying overtime game in Edmonton last night. While it should do wonders for their love of the game, it might not be so great for their focus. Expect confidence and sloppiness to characterize the first period.

- Breakthroughs. Chara, Bergeron, Ryder, and Sturm are all painfully overdue for a big game. Lucic was in that boat until he put up a hat trick on the Thrashers. Eventually your stars have to be your stars.

- Offense. The Bruins had some of their best puck control of the season last night, and it led to the shutout over a very offensive-minded Oilers team. On the road, extra risks are a bit more acceptable because they can take a crowd and a team out of the game. I'd expect to see the Bruins continue to pinch the D, crash the net and take as many shots as possible.

- 4th-liners. The Canucks get a lot of traction from their 4th line of Alex Burrows (7 pts), Ryan Kesler (9) and Jannik Hansen (4). The Bruins have gotten some fine defensive games from their 4th line of Shawn Thornton, Stephane Yelle, and Petteri Nokelainen. In the second of back-to-back road games, depth is a key factor.

- Goaltending. Thomas vs. Luongo... should be the best matchup in the league tonight.

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Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Bruins vs. Sabres: Stuff to Look Out For

[Edit: Those following Oiler-Blogger-Gate might want to check out this interview with Oilers PR man J.J. Hebert in the Edmonton Journal. I am stunned at this man's inability to understand the difference between print media and the blogosphere. Want to know why the NHL lags behind other pro leagues in media relations? THIS is why. It reminds me a lot of the RIAA's misguided and costly persecution of online music sharers... a mistake which set them back a decade. Take heed, sports management professionals! Fans will turn on you much more quickly than you think.]

Inevitably, the Bruins and Sabres will end up shooting it out for a playoff spot this season. They finished only 2 points apart last season, and neither team has changed dramatically since May. So every time they match up, it's like a little play-in game.

- This is Versus' game of the night, so expect an audience of hundreds if not thousands.
- But seriously though, Versus has incrementally improved their hockey coverage. Like the growth of a tumor, you don't really notice it until you consider the state of things only a couple of years ago.

- Manny Fernandez gets the start again. He was solid but not special against Ottawa, especially considering he let in another softie. Tim Thomas was outstanding against the sniper-ific Pens last night. If Manny shows up with his B-game against the Sabres, this blog will officially endorse Tim Thomas for starting goaltender.

- These teams have lost only one game combined -- and by only one goal at that. The Sabres are undefeated, but lost to Atlanta in a shootout (the Bruins are better than the Thrashers). The B's have earned charity points from Montreal and Pittsburgh, but lost to the Wild (are the Sabres better than the Wild? We'll find out Thursday).

- Thomas Vanek was the Player of the Week to start the season. He's really good, and underrated. But he should not lead the league in scoring. Tonight would be a nice time for him to come back to earth.

- Buffalo has eaten the Bruins' lunch lately, especially at home. Tonight is not an insignificant test for an improving Bruins team which fancies itself playoff-material.

- The Sabres are one of the teams I really hate, along with the Habs and Flyers and Avs (the Oilers earned an honorary spot this week). I suspect that many Bruins fans feel pretty much the same way, and that Sabres fans share the sentiment. The players don't seem to care much for each other either. There is a lot of animosity in this series -- expect it to produce some venom this season. PS -- Sabres, Habs, Flyers and Avs... which one doesn't belong and why? I kid, I kid. (not really)

- PJ Axelsson will probably miss another game, which would make 3 in a row. That's getting close serious-injury territory, though everyone's mum on the exact nature of the injury. I'm predicting a groin pull -- any takers?

- A win tonight would put the Bruins only 1 point behind the currently-unbeaten-in-regulation Sabres. A loss could put them in a last-place tie with the Leafs heading into Thursday's game against Toronto. Don't listen to those tired old cliches of, "We're just trying to play 3 games at a time" and "We're definitely looking past this game". This one is big, and it will be scrappy. Good watchin'.

- Click here to watch a great anti-Sabres rant by that arrogant kid you hated in middle school, while he wears a hairy gumdrop hat.

Other Bruins-friendly previews:
WickedBruinsFan
Stanley Cup of Chowder
boston.com
Previews from enemy trenches:
Blue & Gold
Bfloblog

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Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Bruins vs. Habs: Stuff to Look Out For

Not that a Boston-Montreal matchup needs any extra hype, but here are a few little plotlines to consider as we go into tonight's game:

Ryder's homecoming: Lost in all the pregame centennial hoopla will be the return of Michael Ryder to the BellForum. So far he's lived up to his hype (and contract) with 3 points in his first 2 games. More importantly Ryder has clicked with Marc Savard, as each of them has made a sweet dish to the other for a goal. There will be a lot of nerves prior to gametime, and probably a lot of heckling, but Ryder has been one of the Bruins' best players and has to show up in top form tonight.

Sobotka back in the lineup: Everybody knew that Vlad the Lesser deserved to make the big-league roster, so it might be a blessing in disguise that he was called up to replace Kobasew. Sobotka, like Kobie, adds a spark to the lineup that can jump-start the Bruins out of their mental hibernations. More importantly, I would expect him to be on the 4th line with Yelle and Thornton, meaning Milan Lucic will most likely be taking on a larger role.

[update: bruinshockeyblog reports that George Laraque will make his Habs debut tonight, and Carbonneau has stated more or less directly that the intention is to erase Lucic as a physical presence. This will be a major clash of muscle, and is pretty much guaranteed to lead to a punching contest sooner or later.]

The Habs are a bunch of pricks: They're bad enough under normal circumstances, but with a large pregame ceremony celebrating a full century of being poor winners, the Canadiens and their fans will have a little extra French in their system tonight. Look for guys like Kovalev and Lang, to whom obnoxiousness is precious fuel, to have a big game.

Sweet, sweet discipline: Though nobody will say it out loud, Andrew Alberts' tendency to jump out of position had a lot to do with his banishment to Philadelphia. The Wild had some success stretching the Boston defense and forcing them out of position, and the Habs would love to catch the Bruins playing a little pond hockey. The only way the B's win the game is by playing smart, disciplined defense... keep an eye on Matt Hunwick to cause a few skipped heartbeats.

The odds are on our side: The Bruins haven't won a game in Quebec in nearly two calendar years. Tonight will be either their 100th victory or their 200th loss in Montreal. The laws of probability favor victory for the Bruins on several fronts, though probability has never been much of a factor in this rivalry.

Other preview action:
the-jumbotron has a pre-game primer including all the French you should ever need to know.

Stanley Cup of Chowder has some fun link action and vids.

Inside the Den has a nice piece on Michael Ryder's return to Montreal.

WickedBruinsFan makes it all seem very easy to understand.

The Bear Cave has all the stats you can handle, fool.

The Big Bad Bruins is having marriage problems.

Cornelius Hardenberg teaches a life lesson at the end of the post, not unlike G.I. Joe.

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Thursday, October 2, 2008

Rask Leaves Camp Disappointed (that the Bruins aren't being sold)

Quick updates today, as we draw ever-closer to games that count:

- Sadly, Jeremy Jacobs is not interested in selling the Bruins. So much for my proposal that the Federal Government bail out Jacobs by purchasing the team and selling it to someone who gives a rat's ass.

- Four more players were sent back to Providence: Tuukka Rask, Matt Lashoff, Jeff Penner and Martin St. Pierre. Rask and Lashoff will be on the short-list for a callup to the NHL, and Penner might see a little ice time later this season. St. Pierre is an AHL lifer.

- Gabe and John at the Jumbotron put together a player-by-player preview for MYFO that will make you far more intimate with the Bruins' roster than you really would've wanted.

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Saturday, September 20, 2008

Gettin' Hypocritical on Pierre LeBrun

Ok, in the context of my last post -- in which I brazenly predicted a Bruins division title -- this one might sound like I'm speaking out of the other side of my mouth. I'm comfortable with that, for two reasons:

1) The Bruins actually have a legit shot in such a weak division, with only three or four X-factors in play.

2) It's the preseason. All this stuff is bullshit anyway.

In the past X days, ESPN blogger Pierre LeBrun (who is, by the way, the best addition to the site since Bucci and might actually help return the WWL to hockey credibility) has predicted that both the Oilers and Sabres will be this season's "feel good stories" by squeezing out a couple more wins and making the playoffs in their respective conferences.

Now, I hate to be the sort of guy to piss in anyone's Cheerios.

Ok, I lie. I love pissing in the Cheerios of teams I dislike. So here we go.

Oilers

The question is not whether the Oilers have improved. The question is, how many teams are going to fall OUT of the playoffs in the West?

You can pretty much lock in Detroit, San Jose, Dallas, Anaheim and Calgary. I don't know anybody who thinks Chicago is missing the playoffs again. Minnesota looks weaker this season, but it would take a lot to drop them 10 points in a single offseason -- unless the Gaborik situation crumbles. That leaves one measly playoff seed open for Colorado, Nashville, Edmonton and Vancouver to pursue.

If they stay healthy and Granato does a decent job, Colorado is a better team than Edmonton. I made a comment to that effect on Lebrun's blog and the Oilers fans nearly lost their minds -- but it's time to face the facts, folks. Colorado has two All-Star quality centers, not counting Peter Forsberg. They have two 20-30 goal scorers on each wing. They have a very solid top 3 defensemen in Liles, Foote and Hannan. Their goaltending is as good as the Oilers' (Raycroft/Budaj vs. Garon/Roloson... not a franchise goalie in the bunch). Aside from having decent depth and a pretty good #1 defenseman, the Oilers simply don't bring as much to the table... injuries notwithstanding they'll have a hard time keeping pace with the Avs.

Nashville is less talented but they always overachieve and play a relatively easy schedule. Vancouver seems to be out of steam, but has a rejuvenated Luongo and might be desperate enough to make a major trade (they already showed willingness to pay Ovechkin money for Sundin).

Too many pundits are disregarding the Oilers' sub-.500 first half and remembering the streaky team that finished the season. But playing well in the basement for a couple of months is not to be compared to going wire-to-wire as a playoff-caliber team. If the Oilers make it, they'll do it by the skin of their teeth and as a result of other teams' misfortune. This is shaping up to be a miss-by-one-point season for them, a learning experience to make the roster a little less raw for the future.

Sabres

Lebrun's mistake was to imply that Buffalo is in a "rebound" season when in fact they are in a "rebuild" season. Everything about the Sabres suggests they are not building momentum for a playoff run, but rather insulating the franchise against the emotional turmoil of dismantling the roster.

Consider the moves they have made since 07-08 (with numbers from last season):

LOST

Daniel Briere (31-41-72)
Chris Drury (25-33-58)
Brian Campbell (8-54-62)
Dainus Zubrus (13-25-38)
Ty Conklin (2.51, .923, 18w, 2so)
Steve Bernier (16-16-32)

GAINED
Patrick Lalime (2.82, .897, 16w, 1so)
Craig Rivet (5-30-35)

EXTENDED
Paul Gustad (4 yrs)
Daniel Paille (2 yrs)
Ryan Miller (5 yrs)
Jason Pominville (5 yrs)

That is not a team "getting up off the mat", but rather one which is just trying to stop the bleeding. Obviously the front office is going to try and spin a storyline that they're trying to compete for a Stanley Cup this year, because that's what sports execs do. But from where I sit, it looks an awful lot like they're actually preparing for a stripdown/rebuild to last 2-3 years. The plan here is to lock in the core players in the meantime, so as not to have to start all the way back with lottery picks -- the Sabres could use trades and free agent signings to have a pretty decent team in place with a minimum of pain.

But playoffs? C'mon, they'll field a weaker team against a stronger conference... "feel good story" is a real stretch.

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Thursday, July 31, 2008

Bruins Prospect Preview (or, the legend of the one-eyed Swede)

If you have made it all the way to this corner of the interweb, chances are you are already familiar with Hockey's Future, the best online resource available for researching prospects. Considering I rely pretty heavily on them for scouting notes on young players, I thought I ought to go ahead and give them a shameless promo up front.

But we're not here to talk about the possibility of my getting reimbursed for that comment. We're here to talk about new talent in the Bruins organization.

One of the most positive developments that the B's have pulled off in the Pete Chiarelli Era is the shift away from using veterans as key roster pieces (compare to the veteran-laden rebuilding effort in Toronto, which might go on for another 10 years) and the quick development of young talent to replace them. This season we should see a major shift forward as several youngsters are on the verge of losing the "prospect" label and becoming full-time contributors in the big league. In particular, Milan Lucic and David Krejci will be expected to take some of the ice time freed up by Glen Murray's departure.

Looking deeper in the organization, this is what's coming down the pipeline:

G Tuukka Rask - The Bruins have done the right thing with Rask, signing veterans Tim Thomas and Manny Fernandez to keep the ship stable while Rask develops in the AHL. All indicators suggest that Rask will be the next elite goaltender to break into the NHL, and frankly we can afford to wait as long as necessary to be sure that he's truly ready when the time arrives. But there is no question that Rask is the heir-apparent to the starting spot in Boston, so if either of the Bruins' goalies go down with injury or are otherwise unserviceable, don't be suprised to see Chiarelli "cheat" a little in hopes of finding instant success.

RW Blake Wheeler - A steal from the Coyotes organization, Wheeler has the size and skills to be a long-term contributor in the NHL. There are persistent questions about his character, though, and that might be the biggest obstacle to his development. He'll likely start the season in Providence, but I expect he'll be playing regular minutes in Boston by the end of the season. Certainly the best winger prospect in the Bruins system right now.

D Matt Lashoff - Having done pretty much everything expected of him in the AHL, Lashoff should be ready to break through this season. Like Wheeler he'll probably start the season in Providence, but as soon as a defenseman is injured in Boston he's the obvious choice for a callup. At this point he would seem like a good third-pairing prospect, and might get some PK time given his defensive skill.

C Vladimir Sobotka - The list of centermen in Boston is a bit crowded, and Sobotka may end up being the odd man out. He played 48 games with the Big B's last season and scored only once... not much of a recommendation for a smallish forward with average speed. Winning only 48.6% of his faceoffs doesn't help. He'll get another shot this year, but consider him trade bait if he doesn't improve quickly. At best he might develop into a second-rate agitator.

C Zach Hamill - Another center most likely to spend the majority of the season in Providence. Hamill seems to have a little more upside than Sobotka and I don't get the sense that he's as vulnerable to being traded. Someone to keep an eye on in a couple of years.

C Carl Soderberg - The white elephant of the Bruins organization. Folks on the other side of the pond say he's got the skill to be a contributor at the NHL level, perhaps even a potential All-Star, but an eye injury and general lack of interest in playing in North America put a damper on that enthusiasm. Apparently he has agreed to play in the Bruins system this season, but teams have been known to wrongfully hitch their wagons to a moody European scorer in the past.

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Thursday, July 24, 2008

Peeking ahead

Two significant moves in the past two days -- re-signing flying defenseman Dennis Wideman and taking the first steps toward buying out the contract of old-school forward Glen Murray -- have given us, at least in broad strokes, an idea of what the Bruins' roster will look like this winter. Of course, there's still a lot of shuffling left to be done, but it doesn't appear there are any major surprises in store.

We can foresee this season's roster with clarity in part because the Bruins remain handcuffed by the salary cap. In fact, Wideman's contract renewal (a healthy 4-year, $15.5 million extension) put the team temporarily over the cap limit of $56.7 million. The obvious solution was to buy out Muzz's $4.15 million salary, even though the team will continue to carry a $1.4 million penalty. When the dust clears, the Bruins should enter the season with $55.469 million locked up -- leaving a paltry $1.3 million of "wiggle room" for a rainy day.

So, don't expect any major trades or free-agent signings this season (check us off the Mats Sundin destination list). Assuming the Bruins benefit from the recovery of Patrice Bergeron and Manny Fernandez, the lineup for Opening Night should look something like this:

Sturm - Savard- Ryder
Lucic - Bergeron- Kessel
Axelsson - Krejci - Kobasew
Reich - Nokelainen - Wheeler

Chara - Wideman
Alberts - Ward
Stuart - Hnidy

Thomas/Fernandez

Not too shabby! The top line should be explosive, with Michael Ryder adding much-needed scoring punch from the right wing. Granted, his production slumped off to a mere 14 goals last season. But taking passes from Marc Savard, and playing opposite the sneaky-dangerous Sturm, should give Ryder the quality opportunities he needs to reach the 30-goal level once again. 30 from Ryder, 30 from Sturm and 20 from Savard... that's the kind of line that can be a real bitch in the playoffs.

But it's the dynamic second line that could really have Bruins fans drooling. The pairing of Bergeron and Lucic is only natural -- a talented scorer and a grinding enforcer with good hands in the crease will usually work pretty well together. Add the enigmatic Phil Kessel, who is poised to take a step toward stardom now that he's got some playoff street cred, and you've got a personality cocktail that will either implode or blow the hinges off the Eastern playoff bracket.

Perhaps the biggest question mark going into the late summer will be the development of young talent in the Bruins organization. More on that topic later this week.

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