Is the backup goalie "controversy" manufactured?

I'm having a hard time swallowing the media-driven storyline that Tuukka Rask has competition for the backup goalie position.

Yeah, the Bruins went out and signed Danny Sabourin as a third option in goal. But does anyone seriously think that Sabourin, who has played all of one preseason game in a Boston uniform after being ditched by the Pens, is going to take away Rask's opportunity to break into the NHL as a regular contributor?

So far, the Bruins organization has so far invested the following in Rask:
- Andrew Raycroft
- Manny Fernandez
- Three years of careful development
- $9.6 million in salary

Rask is now 22 and in a contract year. He has made the most of his NHL audition so far, shutting out the Rangers last season and holding them to one goal in his lone start this preseason. He has the opportunity to play behind a 35-year-old Vezina winner on a defending conference championship team. Bruins GM Peter Chiarelli has effectively cleared a path for him to the backup position by choosing not to even negotiate an extension for Fernandez.

The plan is obvious: Rask plays the next 2-3 seasons as a 30-game backup, and gradually begins to compete with Thomas for playing time. By the end of Thomas' contract in 2013, Rask should be the nightly starting goalie.

All of this adds up to an obvious truth: The backup job is Rask's alone this season. Only in dire circumstances will Sabourin have a shot at playing in Boston.

Bruins: Deeper than a Zen monk.

One thing that every Cup-winning team has in common: depth. As we go deeper into the playoffs, it becomes more and more important to be able to match up all 4 lines and insert new players into the lineup to cover for injury.

Boston has been blessed with an embarrassment of riches this season, dealing away two solid prospects (Lashoff and Nokelainen) at the trade deadline and still retaining more NHL-quality players than can fit on a roster. Here are the guys who could have a big impact despite watching the occasional game as a scratch:

Shane Hnidy

Why he's on the bench: Lack of skill, mostly. Hnidy has a hard time moving the puck under pressure, especially when he's forced to make a quick and accurate pass. He also offers relatively little upside when he has the time and space to make a play.

How he could play a role: The "Sherriff" is a decent defensive player, but his most valuable contribution is grit. He goes into the tough areas with reckless abandon and is always the first to jump into a scrum. In a tough Montreal series he added much-needed snarl.

Steve Montador

Why he's on the bench: Since his deadline trade from Anaheim, Montador hasn't really found a place in the Boston lineup. He's not quite skilled enough to justify a regular shift on defense, and his time as a forward was unproductive.

How he could play a role: Utility players are more valuable in the playoffs, when substitutions are more urgent. Montador's ability to play at nearly any position could make him an attractive "band aid" when injuries start to pile up.

Byron Bitz

Why he's on the bench: Because he's redundant as long as Shawn Thornton is in the lineup. Both are cut from the same mold -- large, bruising enforcers with enough skill to justify a regular shift. Bitz is a little larger, but Thornton's skill set and leadership make him a safer play.

How he could play a role: Bitz and Thornton showed they were capable of playing effectively together, combining for a key goal against Montreal. If a Bruins forward goes down with injury, Bitz is likely Julien's first choice off the bench. He'll be expected to hit, hit, and hit some more to generate offense off the forecheck.

Vladimir Sobotka

Why he's on the bench: The Boston system has proven a bit too deep for the NHL-ready forward. Sobotka would most likely be an "energy" player in most organizations, but veteran forwards like Kobasew and Yelle have kept him in Providence for most of the season.

How he could play a role: Sobotka gives the Bruins a little extra yap when he's on the ice. If Kobasew were to go down, he might be a better replacement than Bitz or Montador. He's hardly a blue chip prospect, but can hold his own in the big leagues.

Tuukka Rask

Why he's on the bench: Manny's making too much money to be the towel boy.

How he could play a role: To be honest, if Tim Thomas gets injured it doesn't really matter what role Rask plays. We could hope for him to have an experience similar to Varlamov in Washington, but realistically it would be asking too much for him to carry a late playoff run.

Other depth options for Boston:

Johnny Boychuk - Stud defensive prospect, not yet ready for prime time.
Jeremy Reich - Depth winger lost in the system after blowing his chance in Boston.
Martin St. Pierre - Undersized but skillful, he won't sniff a callup unless something truly horrible happens.
Peter Schaefer - Remember this guy!? His massive cap hit will keep him safely in Providence, where he can do less harm.

Bruins Cap Crunch Pt 2: Bergeron's Days Are Numbered

Since last Friday, when Part 1 of this article was written, we've learned of key details in the Tim Thomas contract:


The contract is a 4-year deal worth $20 million -- more time and money than had been previously reported in the press. Despite the fact that Thomas signed the contract before his 35th birthday, the league will consider him "age 35" at the time of signing. Therefore his cap number cannot change; buying him out will have no effect, a wrinkle that Peter Chiarelli appears to have miscalculated. Oh yeah, there's a no-movement clause in the first 3 years of Thomas' contract. The $5 million cap hit is written in stone.



Good News

As pointed out at Bobby Orr's Bastard, the cap hits for Tuukka Rask and Blake Wheeler will be greatly reduced next season. In a nutshell, the terms of the new CBA will be in effect and players currently on entry-level contracts (including Rask and Wheeler) will have a maximum cap hit of $875,000. This will save the Bruins about $4 million if both players are on the active roster.


Pink Slips


At this point it's clear that the Bruins will have to move some salaries in the offseason. The question is -- who stays and who goes?

For now, we can generally guess that the team will move forward with a Thomas/Rask tandem in net. It's given that Manny Fernandez and his $4.3 million cap hit will be long gone by training camp. Compared to this season's cap numbers, that makes the goaltending position more or less a wash. All things considered, it's also unlikely that the blueliners' combined cap hit will be much different from one season to the next (unless Matt Hunwick hits the jackpot).

That brings us to the forwards.


PJ Axelsson will surely not be brought back at $1.85 million; it's up to him and his agent whether they want to re-sign for significantly less. If not, Axelsson could be replaced by Vladimir Sobotka for only $750k. The net balance of this situation should be a $1m advantage for Boston.


After that, the decisions start to get tougher. Cap casualties could include Chuck Kobasew ($2.3m), Marco Sturm ($3.5m) or Michael Ryder ($4m), though all of these would come at a significant cost to the team's forward depth. Of course, they would also need to be replaced by a bargain-basement player, leaving the Bruins shallower and damaging their chemistry.


A more emotionally-charged option would be to trade Patrice Bergeron. At $4.7 million, Bergeron made roughly the same salary this season as Saku Koivu, Alex Semin and Eric Staal. With all due respect to Bergeron's brave battle against concussion problems, he's being paid too much to score only 7 goals and to be one of only three regular forwards without a + rating.


The cost of keeping Bergeron would be more than meets the eye. Not only would it affect contract negotiations for the team's younger players (Kessel, Lucic and Krecji), but it would threaten the Bruins' chances of re-signing Marc Savard in two years. It's only speculation at this stage, but this pundit would be shocked to see Bergeron in a Bruins uniform at training camp.

How do they do it?

Only two teams in the league have managed to navigate these issues year-after-year, without seeing a significant downturn in the quality of their roster. Detroit and New Jersey have seen potential dynasties crumble in Tampa, Pittsburgh, Boston, Anaheim, Dallas and Colorado... and they keep plugging along, winning division titles and staying in the Cup race despite significant roster turnover. There are lessons to be learned from them:

1) Drafting, developing and trading new players is key to suriving turnover. Trading Petteri Nokelainen and Matt Lashoff in return for veterans made sense for this season's playoff run -- but the cost to the organization's depth is not insignificant.

2) If at all possible, it's vital to work "hometown discounts" into new contracts. Clearly this was not the case with Thomas, but Chiarelli needs to convince players like Kessel and Wheeler that playing for the Bruins is worth a slight pay cut. The Red Wings have been masterful at this game.

3) Today's hero is tomorrow's goat. The biggest risk in the Thomas extension is that he'll turn out to be the next Byron Dafoe. Signing players to long-term, high-dollar contracts is not an advisable approach to franchise-building.


So the Bruins' approach should boil down to a few simple principles:


- Ditch players like Bergeron and Axelsson who are not playing to their pay level. If possible, trade them for picks or prospects who will restock Providence when the P-Bruins are called up.

- Lock up cornerstone players like Lucic and Krejci to short, incentive-laden contracts that will keep them in Boston without removing accountability.

- Exploit Thomas' contract by working Rask into the lineup a few games at a time. He has a minimum of 3 seasons to work on his game behind a possible Vezina winner.

And pray that the cap doesn't shrink too much.

The Bruins' Slowly-Developing Cap Crunch

First, let's take a moment to revel in some good news:

- The Bruins won their 50th game of the season for the first time since 1993.

- The magic number for clinching the Eastern Conference is now 1.

- For the next 3 years (potentially), we'll have a goaltending duo of Thomas/Rask. A Vezina-potential veteran and a Calder-potential rookie on the same team? Good grief.

Now, the unsettling part. Boston.com reports that the Bruins signed Thomas to a 3-year, $5.2 million deal. While this might not even break the top 10 in goalie salaries next year, it is still Brodeur money and puts the team in a difficult cap situation moving forward.

Getting too close to the ceiling

The root of the problem is that the Bruins are a bit too young for their own good -- six key players under 25 (Kessel, Krejci, Lucic, Hunwick and Stuart) are up for contract renewal in the next two years and all but Stuart will be looking for a significant raise. But the Bruins are already squeezed against the cap ceiling, so extending these players' contracts will involve trimming salary in other parts of the roster. This is where a team can go from elite to mediocre in a hurry.

Next season GM Peter Chiarelli will need to re-sign Kessel, Krejci and Hunwick as restricted free agents (meaning they are free to entertain offers from other teams, but the Bruins will have the right to match). Their current salaries combine for a $3.8m cap hit; after renewal that number will likely be closer to $9m.

Trimming fat

There is a bit of relief on the horizon -- Glen Murray's $1.4m buyout could expire this summer, giving Boston extra breathing room [edit: Murray's cap hit is in the appeals process. If he wins, the $1.4m comes off the books; if the Bruins win, it remains until the end of next season. Perverse, isn't it? Thanks to the Bastahd for pointing this out]. Also, veteran Shane Hnidy will presumably be replaced by AHL standout Johnny Boychuck, a net cap relief of $250k. It's a safe bet that P.J. Axelsson will not be renewed at $1.8m, but there's no clear answer as to who will take his place (the Bruins could save about $1m if they can find a bargain). Also, Manny Fernandez is clearly done in the organization so his $4.3m will be a major relief. Altogether, Chiarelli will be working with between $5.5m and $6.9m.

$5-7 million in cap space... roughly $5 million in new salary. You can see the problem developing.

But wait... there's more!

As if this weren't already a fairly distressing situation, a similar crunch will develop in summer 2010. Lucic will be seeking a dramatic upgrade from his current $850k; it's hard to imagine the Bruins retaining him for less than Michael Ryder's $4m.

Then there's Blake Wheeler, who is currently making $2.8m and is eligible for arbitration if the team can't come to terms. Given his outstanding rookie campaign, it's also quite possible he will be making something like $4m in his new contract. Don't forget Stuart, who will likely hold steady at $1.3m, and Marc Savard will hit the free agent market at the completion of his $5m deal.

Oh yeah... and that's the summer that Rask will be ready to ask for a starting-goalie salary.

Sounds a little bleak, doesn't it? There are options on the table for Boston to keep the ship steady through all these changes, but none of them will be easy to swallow. Chiarelli is going to be faced with some tough decisions; check back tomorrow for details.

Manny considering retirement... WTF???

Glove tap to Cornelius Hardenbergh for linking over to this quote, buried somewhere in the bowels of the THN website:

“Uh, no. I think this is one of my last runs. You never know, but it’s going to be a summer I think (in which) the whole family is going to have to sit down and really talk about this. It’s been a good run. I’ve had ups and downs. I’ve got to look physically at if I can still accomplish all these things."
- Boston backup goalie Manny Fernandez when asked if he wanted to be a starter in the NHL again.

Well that's an interesting turn of events. Fernandez hardly seemed to be at the end of his rope, having only just recovered from a devastating knee injury and playing pretty well through the first half of the season. At one point he won 7 games in a row, lost one, then won 6 more straight.

But sometime in January it seems that his back started to give out, and he's only started 5 games since 1/08. The numbers in those starts are ugly - 5 losses, 22 goals against, and a save percentage that starts with an 8.

Maybe the severity of Manny's back problem was disguised by Tim Thomas' stranglehold on the starting position. His struggles were downplayed as "maintenance", but his recent performances suggest he's not going to find many bidders on the open market this summer. That leaves him in goalie limbo -- does he try to plug out a few more seasons as a middling backup, or hang 'em up before his time?

In either case, this would seem to cement Tuukka Rask's position as heir-apparent to the backup spot next season. The only question now is how much Thomas is going to be seeking in contract negotiations.

The Trade Deadline: A Plea For Sanity

My, what a difference a season can make.

This time last year, Peter Chiarelli played a conservative hand at the trade deadline -- no moves were made, as the team's biggest concern was to dump veteran salaries and make space for young talent.

Early this season, on the heels of an unexpected playoff berth, Bruins fans were talking about the possibility of making a long playoff run within 2-3 seasons. This year was to be a bridge between the past and future, and another road-ice playoff berth was the optimisitic outlook.

Now here we are reading articles speculating on the possibility that Chiarelli could make a blockbuster move for Chris Pronger, Keith Tkachuk or Erik Cole. All of these rumors assume that he would be willing to let go of promising young talent or high draft picks, and that the end-game would be a Stanley Cup run this spring.

Maybe it's time to stop and take a deep breath. We're moving a bit too fast, aren't we?

Some perspective: Phil Kessel (21), David Krecji (22) and Matt Hunwick (23) are all coming up for contract renewal this summer. The size and length of those contracts will set the landscape for the Chiarelli-era Bruins -- presumably for the next 3-5 years. At the same time, the Bruins will likely dump or cut the salaries of veterans Stephane Yelle, P.J. Axelsson and Shane Hnidy. And of course, in the process they'll work out a plan of succession for the goaltending position -- which is complicated by the fact that Tuukka Rask's contract is finished after next season.

Perhaps more importantly, next summer the Bruins will renegotiate contracts with Marc Savard, Milan Lucic, Blake Wheeler, Andrew Ference, Aaron Ward, Mark Stuart, Shawn Thornton and Petteri Nokelainen.

All of this means that the Bruins are, effectively, still in the middle of the rebuilding process. As good as they may be at present, only a handful of players are locked up through next summer. It would be unwise to move prospects or draft picks under the assumption that they're expendable, without knowing for certain whether key players such as Savard and Kessel will be around for much longer.

Of course, it's difficult not to see this season as a now-or-never opportunity to bring home the Cup, with the Bruins playing their best hockey in 35 years. But let's take a lesson from last year's Pens -- today's rental player is tomorrow's lost scoring depth. For a team that's got such a bright future, that might be the difference between a dynasty and a bunch of 8th-place finishes.

When does it become official?

Nothing shakes up a first-place team like the words "Goalie Controversy".

All season long, Claude Julien has artfully dodged the obvious conflict between having two starters. To watch or listen to Tim Thomas and Manny Fernandez, they're the best of friends and simply enjoying their experience as co-number-ones. Everyone's acted the consummate professional -- Julien has shown no preference for either goalie, both have played well and stayed polite, and the Bruins have surged into an uncontested first-place position.

Wasn't all of this supposed to get easier when the deadlock was broken, and the Bruins had a clear-cut #1 again?

When Manny succumbed to nagging back issues just before the All-Star break, Thomas stepped in for 8 consecutive starts, ringing up an impressive 5-1-2 record against stiff competition. According to the playbook, this is where Timmy was supposed to take full control of the #1 position, and Manny was supposed to assume the role of reliable backup for the stretch run. Manny might sulk a bit, but he would be gone either at the March trade deadline or during the summer. Meanwhile he could be counted on to take over if Thomas were injured or rattled during the playoffs.

Enter Tuukka Rask.

Rask, who outperformed every other goaltender during Bruins training camp last fall, is the Bruins' answer to Carey Price -- young, talented, fully developed and simply waiting for his destiny to arrive. He is the future, 13 years junior to both Fernandez and Thomas and already playing at their level. For the past two seasons the Bruins have promised him the starting position as soon as the Thomas/Fernandez dynamic is resolved.

Rask upped the ante during yesterday's matinee against the Rangers.. With Fernandez in the press box and Thomas exhausted from 8 straight starts, the rookie stopped 35 shots for a 1-0 victory in his first NHL appearance in over a year. It was more than a promise of things to come; it laid down a mandate to Bruins management to clear up their goaltending situation immediately. Suddenly, the future is now for a team stocked with young talent and a salary-cap bubble about to burst.

So, perhaps it's time to make it official: the Bruins have a goalie controversy. Tim Thomas is an All-Star, a Vezina candidate, and a fan favorite. Fernandez is a former Jennings winner and has been a top-10 netminder all season -- but is injured and a potential time bomb in the locker room. Rask is a would-be Calder candidate, a legitimate NHL starter and the future of the franchise. All three are circling around the starting position in Boston, but at least one will be the odd man out.

How does Peter Chiarelli break the deadlock? He has three options:
1) Trade or waive Fernandez before the March deadline, clearing $4 million in cap space that could be used to pursue a rental player. Move Rask into the backup spot for the rest of the season, and use Thomas as a "mentor" figure for the next couple of seasons as Rask takes on the starting role.
2) Reassign Rask to Providence, and risk the psychological fallout of sending a young goaltender back to the minors after 2 years of promises that he could play himself into the starting position in Boston. Continue to rotate Thomas and Fernandez during the stretch run, and let them hash it out in contract negotiations this summer to see who stays and who goes.
3) Reassign Rask to Providence, with the explicit promise that he will start next season. Let both Thomas and Fernandez walk in the offseason, and use the roughly $4 million savings to secure long-term contracts for RFAs Phil Kessel and David Krejci.

If you were Chiarelli for a day, which would you choose?

Bruins vs. Rangers: Stuff To Look Out For

Too damn early: These afternoon matinees are great for young families, terrible for bloggers. I woke up at 9 CST (10 EST) this morning and realized that the Bruins game was less than three hours away. Great for hangovers, terrible for game previews.

Mini-playoffs: The Rangers jumped out to an early lead in the Eastern Conference, largely as a result of playing 3-5 more games than anyone else but have been gradually losing ground ever since. They're walking a fine line between "contender" and "first-round fodder", so expect them to treat this as -- say it with me -- a measuring stick game. The peril of playing every Eastern contender in the space of a week is that the pressure never lets up. It's like the playoffs; every other night you face a team with that "I've waited all season to beat YOU" look in their eyes.

So far the Bruins are 1-0-1 in their mini-playoffs. That gives me reason for cautious optimism in this game, as the Bruins and Rangers always go to a shootout and therefore a charity-point is usually in play.

Fernandez chatter: Here is comes again -- without doing anything at all, Manny Fernandez is becoming a distraction. Hub Hockey reports that Fernandez' "general soreness" in his back is related to the knee injury that cost him all of last season. If this is true, it might torpedo any plans to swap Manny at the trade deadline, while simultaneously making him a giant question-mark for the late season and playoffs. Meanwhile, Stanley Cup of Chowder calls for Tuukka Rask to start this game, to see what the kid's got to offer and give Tim Thomas a day of relief. If Manny's going to be unreliable from now on, I'd like to see Rask getting one out of every five starts... just in case.

Which Rangers will it be?: So far this month, the Blueshirts have been torched twice by the Pens, crushed by the Habs and lost squeakers to the Caps and Sabres. They've also picked up victories against opponents from all over the spectrum of difficulty: Islanders, Ottawa, Pittsburgh, Carolina, Anaheim, Chicago. Pressure is starting to build on King Henrik, who was awful in the third period of their previous game (after being abused in the All-Star game). I'm thinking Tom Renney's neckties are starting to feel a little tighter every night.

"Maintenance Day"?: Hub Hockey also reports that David Krejci skipped practice for what Claude Julien called a "maintanance day". Just when you thought the Bruins were finished with injuries to their top-5 forwards...

Key matchup: Scott Gomez vs. Marc Savard. Gomez is one of the few stable things about the Rangers roster, reliably scoring points while making things difficult on opposing centers. Savard will be trying to get pucks to both Phil Kessel and Milan Lucic, both of whom are trying to rediscover their touch after returning from injury. If Gomez can make life difficult for Savard, he might be able to take a big bite out of the Bruins offense.

Fight I want to see: A matchup between Colton Orr and Shawn Thornton? Yes, please!

Other Previews:
Stanley Cup of Chowder
The Hockey Blog Adventure
Wicked Bruins Fan
The Big Bad Bruins
The New York Rangers Blog
Rangers Report

Providence vs. Hamilton: Stuff To Look Out For

It's a battle of the M.A.S.H. units tonight in Boston. The NHL's most active rivalry will be missing, oh, a few names you may recognize.

Injury rundown
Boston: Phil Kessel will be out for about a month with mono. Patrice Bergeron is skating but has no timetable for return. Marco Sturm is done for at least the regular season with knee surgery. Milan Lucic has simply been AWOL for the past several games (hopefully he didn't share a water bottle with Kessel). Andrew Ference is getting closer to returning from his broken leg. Manny Fernandez is out tonight with an unspecified injury, but expected to return soon. Shane Hnidy took a puck in the face but is expected to play with a visor.

Montreal: Carey Price will sit with a "lower body injury" (aka groin pull). Saku Koivu is close to returning from a foot injury, but won't play tonight. Alex Tanguay could miss up to 6 weeks with a bum shoulder. Christopher Higgins also has an injured shoulder, but won't come back until after the All-Star break. Mathieu Dandenault is out indefinitely with a broken arm. Georges Laraque is still out with a groin injury.

Montreal's been dealing with their injury issues for a bit longer than Boston, so their callups have had a bit more time to gel with the rest of the team. Prospects like Kyle Chipchura and Matt D'Agostini have become quasi-regular players for the Habs, while Max Pacioretti and Yannick Weber are still finding their place on the roster (Pacioretti has been skating on the top line).

Meanwhile the Bruins have been racking up frequent-flier miles this week, sending Matt Lashoff back to Providence and recalling Martin St. Pierre, Byron Bitz, Martins Karsums, and Kevin Regan. Goalie phenom Tuukka Rask was recalled for one game and sent back down in order to get playing time instead of riding the pine.

Got all that?

Lines? We don't need no stinkin' lines: To say the least, it's going to be a hectic night for Claude Julien as he has to completely reassemble his lineup and try to manage line changes on home ice. It's a fool's errand to try and predict what he'll do, but here's a shot in the dark at what the B's lines might look like:

Kobasew-Savard-Karsums
Wheeler-Krejci-Ryder
Axelsson-Yelle-St. Pierre
Thornton-Nokelainen-Bitz

Yikes. This is starting to feel a lot like last season. But then again, if it weren't for last season's injury issues we wouldn't have discovered guys like David Krejci and Looch. Que sera sera.

Wait, some players will actually be available?: Among those actually able to dress for the game, expect the Bruins to lean most heavily on Marc Savard, Krejci and Zdeno Chara for production. One of the advantages to having good centers is that they can make nearly any linemate into an offensive contributor. Look for Kobasew and Karsums to charge the net hard and take advantage of Savard's playmaking wizardry, and Krejci's #1A line to get some extra ice time to continue their torrid streak.

As for Chara, the Bruins simply need him to be a threat from the blue line. With reduced skill in the forward ranks, Chara's slapshot can give his teammates a little extra breathing room and ideally set up some rebound opportunities. Whether or not he tallies on the scoresheet, Chara needs to have an active game.

Goalie matchup: Looks like it'll be Tim Thomas vs. Jaroslav Halak. Goalies can be the difference in a close game, etc.

The big picture: Winning a rivalry game is great, but there's more at stake in this game. The Bruins and Habs are two of the hottest teams in the league, and separated by 10 points for the division title. It's a safe bet the Bruins are going to come back down to earth soon, so a 6-game lead would be a very reassuring cushion against the Habs' winning ways. If Montreal takes this game, the pressure on Boston will ramp up significantly. Also, the hot Capitals (who lost to the Habs the other day) are still pushing to catch up to the #1 seed. The winner of this game gets a lot of marbles.

Rask Leaves Camp Disappointed (that the Bruins aren't being sold)

Quick updates today, as we draw ever-closer to games that count:

- Sadly, Jeremy Jacobs is not interested in selling the Bruins. So much for my proposal that the Federal Government bail out Jacobs by purchasing the team and selling it to someone who gives a rat's ass.

- Four more players were sent back to Providence: Tuukka Rask, Matt Lashoff, Jeff Penner and Martin St. Pierre. Rask and Lashoff will be on the short-list for a callup to the NHL, and Penner might see a little ice time later this season. St. Pierre is an AHL lifer.

- Gabe and John at the Jumbotron put together a player-by-player preview for MYFO that will make you far more intimate with the Bruins' roster than you really would've wanted.

Can the Bruins Trade Fernandez?

Aside from the all-important return of Patrice Bergeron, the biggest issue facing the Bruins this offseason is a brewing goalie controversy.

In the red corner, standing 5'11" and weighing 201 lbs (think Stay-Puft), we have Tim Thomas:

- 34 years old, injury history includes minor tweaks to the groin and knees
- Career GAA of 2.80, Career Save % of .913
- Style of play similar to that of a beached dolphin trying to flop back into the water
- Career highlight - Led the league in save % most of the 2007-08 season, and was the winner of the All-Star game.
- Cap hit of $1.1M, and it's a contract year.

In the blue corner, standing 6'0" and weighing 185 lbs, we have Manny Fernandez:
- 34 years old, recovering from devastating knee injury
- Career GAA of 2.49, Career Save % of .912
- Style of play switched to butterfly late in career
- Career highlight - Won William Jennings trophy in 2007, along with Nicklas Backstrom.
- Cap hit of $4.33M, and it's a contract year.

With Tuukka Rask waiting in the wings, it's clear that one or both of these guys will not be returning next season. Therefore the Bruins are left with a difficult decision: to platoon the two goalies in a 1/1A system, or to cut one loose and hope to get a little return on their assets.

In this blogger's opinion, it's a pretty clear decision: unless Fernandez comes out and rocks our world, his salary hit makes him a liability to the growth of the team. Provided Thomas continues to flip-flop his way to a winning record, he has earned the starting spot and should be kept on the team.

So, the REAL question is: who might be willing to trade for Manny Fernandez? Any potential suitors would have to meet three conditions:
1) Lack of a legit starting goalie, or at least the need for a Plan B in case of implosion
2) A decent shot at the playoffs, and therefore motivation to trade for a B-list starter
3) Something to give back to the Bruins in return... particularly a #2 defenseman or high draft picks

Crunch the numbers and you get this short list of potential suitors:
Colorado
Montreal (if Price underwhelms)
Nashville (ditto Ellis)
Ottawa

It's a safe bet that the Bruins wouldn't swing such a trade with a division rival, so Montreal and Ottawa are off the list. The only two teams remaining who make sense would be Colorado and Nashville.

Colorado - With a ridiculously soft duo of Raycroft/Budaj, the Avs are lucky to be in the playoff hunt at all. They have enough cap space to absorb Manny's salary, but not much in the way of useful commodities to return in a trade. Their most obvious option would be to move Jordan Leopold, who will be a UFA at the end of the season. The Bruins might be willing to bite on that offer.

Nashville - Preds fans are hoping that Dan Ellis continues to overachieve and a trade would be unnecessary. But if his sophomore season brings him back down to earth, Nashville will need to move quickly to stay in the playoff race. The Bruins might be willing to accept a straight-up trade in order to get some cap relief (the Preds have a cushion of $12.4M), or they could make an offer for contract-year veteran blueliner Greg de Vries. Ellis would make a nice #2 goalie in order to buy time for Rask in Providence.

Of course, Fernandez could dismiss all of this moot speculation by having a career season... but allowing 2 goals on 12 shots against the Habs in the exhibition opener wasn't a good sign that he's coming on strong this season. It's in the Bruins' best interests to move him quickly, to reduce the chance of losing him to injury or failing to find a suitor later in the season.