Anatomy of a First-Place Team

With last night's win over Buffalo, the Bruins are (at least temporarily) the banner team in the Northeast Division -- a tough feat, considering the division includes 3 of the Eastern Conference's top 4 teams. While it's still far too early to talk about being in first place in April, the division lead is a testament to the team's resilience in the face of a tough early schedule... and a sign that they are a force to be reckoned with as they play a favorable schedule in November.

What's behind the sudden success (6 wins in 7 games) of a team that many pundits predicted would miss the playoffs? It boils down to a few key factors tilting in Boston's favor:

Hot Goaltending - This is the #1 factor in the Bruins' current streak. In the past 7 games, Tim Thomas has allowed only 5 goals on 168 shots, and Manny Fernandez has won both of his starts by stopping 60 of 65. More importantly, both goaltenders have played their best at key moments, allowing only 4 third-period goals during the streak.

Breakout Games - Milan Lucic had scored only one goal entering the Oct 25th matchup against the Thrashers, when he broke out with a hat trick. Blake Wheeler doubled his scoring total with a hat trick against Toronto on Nov 6th. Marco Sturm scored twice against Dallas after scoring only once in 11 previous games. Last night, Chuck Kobasew tallied a goal and an assist after missing a month with injury. Though Savard is the only player consistently producing at a point-per-game level, it seems that each night brings a new breakout game from a different player.

Depth Players - One of the best-kept secrets in the Eastern Conference is the outstanding play of Boston's 4th line. Shawn Thornton, Stephane Yelle, and a revolving right wing (at times filled by Sobotka, Nokelainen, and Kobasew) consistently dominate their ice time with hard-nosed cycling in the corners. They only pot the occasional goal, but more importantly they sap the ability of opponents' top players to take advantage of their matchups -- an especially important advantage on the road.

Blueline Scoring - In the first 8 games of the season, Boston defensemen accounted for only 1 goal. Since then, they have scored 5. This hardly makes them a threatening bunch of goal scorers, but it's enough to create some extra room for Boston's forwards. Still, one goal from Zdeno Chara (a fluky, bouncing shot that surprised Toskala) is not enough -- look for defensemen scoring to increase as the season goes on.

Bruins vs. Flames: Stuff To Look Out For

- Streaks: Boston and Calgary both enter the game on winning streaks -- four straight dubyas for the Flames, three for the Bruins. Also, both teams carry a significant shutout streak -- 5 periods for Calgary, 6 for Boston. If this isn't a setup for a 0-0 shootout, I don't know what is.

- Motivation: Both teams play in tight divisional races, in which every point is crucial. When playing a non-conference opponent in such circumstances, teams tend to lock it down and play for the OT point. Again, if this isn't a setup for a 0-0 shootout...

- A Relief: Calgary hasn't gone to a shootout yet this season. The Bruins haven't won a shootout in 3 tries.

- No Relief: Tim Thomas gets the third straight start, suggesting Claude Julien isn't exactly "rotating" goalies any more. The ball will be squarely in Manny Fernandez's court to match Thomas' hot streak once he gets the chance. Meanwhile, the Kipper has played every game for the Flames and doesn't look like he's getting a break tonight.

- Massive Hits: Phaneuf. Chara. Iginla. Lucic. Break out the seismograph.

- Special Teams: The Bruins and Flames are #9 and #10, respectively, in PP production. Calgary is 9th on the PK, whereas the Bruins are 29th but have killed 7 straight after a slow start. Calgary is 6th in PP opportunities against, Boston is 20th. This all adds up to: don't take dumb penalties.
BONUS STAT: Bruin 4th-liner Petteri Nokelainen has the highest rate of penalties drawn per minute in the NHL.

- Lucic can see: According to WickedBruinsFan, Lucic had been playing without contacts until the Toronto game on Oct. 23rd. Good god, the man was a beast while playing blind! Since then, he's checked a guy through the glass, scored a hat trick, and conked Luongo. Good god.


Other Previews:
The Jumbotron
Stanley Cup of Chowder
Cornelius Hardenberg and the Hockey Blog Adventure
The Bear Cave

Bruins vs. Canucks: Takeaways

- Vancouver should definitely stick with the blue sweaters. They are by far the best uniforms they have ever had, and a major upgrade over the black. Seeing Edmonton's retro jerseys on Monday and then the Cancuks in green/blue on Tuesday was like being transported back to the NHL of the early 1980s... and that felt good.

- As expected the goaltending was superb on both ends. Luongo and Thomas are opposite ends of the goalie spectrum: Luongo is composed, has near-perfect form and smacks of Jean Girard-like confidence. Thomas is scatterbrained, has no form to speak of, and has a personality comparable to the fat goalie from "The Mighty Ducks". Luongo was born in Montreal; Thomas was born in Flint. Both were superstars last night. If a 0-0 tie was possible these days, it would have been a fitting outcome.

- The Bruins were very, very lucky not to be scored upon in the final 10 minutes. After 110 minutes of shutout hockey against two playoff-minded teams in hostile arenas 3 time zones away from home, things finally started to unravel. The Canucks repeatedly took the puck from their own zone to the Boston goal crease in less than 10 seconds. "Scrambly" was a fitting description for the Bruins defense, who seemed to simply chase the Canucks around.

- On the "breakthrough" front, Michael Ryder finally pots goal #2 of the campaign. He's generated some quality chances the past couple of games but been stoned by some really good goaltending. Nevertheless, he has to produce more to justify his cap hit and ice time. Ryder just isn't a good enough two-way forward to overlook a long goal-less streak.

- Hide the children -- Milan Lucic has his game back. Few players have the natural ability to dominate a shift with both skill and physicality; Lucic does it repeatedly throughout a game. He threw several large hits, and rang a snapshot hard off Luongo's mask in the third period... leading Brickley Jack Edwards (thanks andrine) to coin the instant classic: "He conked Luongo!".

- Chara is now a team-worst -3 and has only 3 points in 10 games, all assists.

- The Bruins now have 4 points on their 3-game road trip, making it a successful venture no matter what happens tomorrow night in Calgary. This brings the road record to 4-1-2, with nearly all of those games being in distant, hostile arenas. As mentioned Monday, the November homestand should be an opportunity to regroup and make some hay in the standings -- where the Bruins are only 1 point out of the division lead (overlooking a slight disadvantage in the GP column).

Other reviews from around the blogosphere:
Stanley Cup of Chowder
The Bruins Report
Cornelius Hardenberg and the Hockey Blog Adventure
The Bear Cave
Hub Hockey
Wicked Bruins Fan
Waiting for Stanley
Canuck Nation
Crashing the Goalie
Vancouver Viewpoint

Bruins vs. Sabres: Takeaways

From tonight's 3-2 SO loss:

- Manny Fernandez bought himself a little more time as #1A, and looked a bit more like his old self through most of the game.

- The night's big head-to-head matchup was Vanek vs. Chara. The Mountain Man won the battle in regulation, as Vanek took only two shots and was generally not much of a factor. But Vanek scored in the shootout after Chara whiffed on a slapshot. Barring injury this will be Chapter One in a 6-game war of attrition.

- David Krejci is better than advertised. At the end of last season he was making progress in spite of consistency issues. This year he's a much more complete player, and does all the little things that make coaches smile on the inside.

- The Bruins continue to have an awful time getting the puck into the net. For the second night in a row they outplayed their opponent through most of the game, led in shots and chances, and set up numerous quality opportunities near the crease. But for the second night in a row, they were stymied by a hot goaltender and some unfriendly posts.

- The Bruins did better in the faceoff circle, with Bergeron winning 13 of 19 and almost everyone else better than .500. They still seem to lose the key draws, which takes a big toll in the long run.

- Mark Stuart continues to underperform. He has 0 points and at least 2 ill-timed penalties so far this season. Tonight his unnecessary penalty immediately following the 2-0 lead may have cost his team a win. I wouldn't be opposed to replacing him with Matt Hunwick if this continues.

- Phil Kessel is a beast this year.

Gaborik to Boston -- In Three Easy (And Highly Unlikely) Steps!

Since this rumor won't go away, let's address it head-on.

DISCLAIMER: I think it's quite farfetched that the Bruins would pursue Gaborik at this time. Hopefully they have learned from the cautionary tales of teams which threw the proverbial kitchen sink at a handful of individuals rather than building a deep, well-rounded team. Furthermore, it seems to me that the B's are at least 1-2 full seasons away from making a major free-agent acquisition toward a Cup run, and by that time they will probably have developed at least a couple of reliable 40-goal scorers from within. But for now I will accept the hypothesis that Pete Chiarelli considers Gaborik the next step toward Stanley Cup glory.



Step #1: Trade or waive Manny Fernandez

This is the toughest part of the equation, because there is no "ideal" option for making it happen. Fernandez carries very little trade value due to his injury history and less-than-insipring comeback effort so far this season. The Bruins would be well-served to wait until he strings together a few decent games and shop him for some kind of return in futures -- either a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick or a prospect from some desperate team. But that risks the possibility that he could be re-injured or simply melt down before the trigger is pulled... or that nobody would take the bait, in which case the only option would be the waiver wire. I believe that if Fernandez were waived he would be snatched up by the Avs, who have the cap space and the need for a decent puckstopper. In this case the Bruins would lose a $4.3 million, former #1 goaltender and get nothing in return.



Step #2: Offer either Phil Kessel or Blake Wheeler for Gaborik

Another tough decision, as Kessel and Wheeler are both excellent long-term projects for the Bruins and appear to be making large strides this season. But these are the only two players on the roster who would be suitable returns for Gaborik, carry a large enough salary ($2m+) to clear significant cap room, AND would not be considered a crippling loss to the Bruins franchise.



Step #3: Negotiate a $7m-ish/year contract

This is the biggest risk of all for Boston. The truth is that Gaborik is worth between 7 and 8 million on the open market, yet he has reportedly turned down a long-term offer from the Wild in the range of $10m/year. Conventional wisdom says that he's stonewalling the Wild regardless of their offer sheets and will take less money to play elsewhere. But as Pittsburgh found out this summer, conventional wisdom is often misguided. It's entirely possible that Gaborik, upon being traded to the Bruins, would stonewall Chiarelli as well and simply leave town as a free agent. In that case the Bruins would have traded a quasi-#1 goaltender and a future star forward for half a season of Gaborik. Bottom line: Gaborik MUST be receptive to a $7-8 million multi-year contract with Boston before any move is made.


Of course, this would have a massive long-term impact on the Bruins roster and cap situation. Gaborik and Chara would combine for a cap impact of $15m/year, and the Bruins would be squeezed against the ceiling for the forseeable future. Not to mention that if Gaborik is injured, underperforms or simply leaves town the Bruins will have lost significant futures in either Kessel or Wheeler.

The upside, of course, would be the addition of the first 50-goal threat since Cam Neely. It's much more difficult to win a Cup without at least one top-level scoring threat, so the addition of Gaborik would at least superficially signal a serious commitment to building a top-quality team.

Overall quality of this trade for the Bruins: 7 on a scale of 10
Likelihood of it actually happening: 4 on a scale of 10

Good Signs of Things to Come

When Tim Thomas woke up in a waterbed covered in whisky and urine this morning, these were the fuzzy memories that cycled through his head:

- Blake Wheeler laying Darcy Tucker flat on his ass, then scoring his first career goal in his first career game.
- Marc Savard making a nifty (almost)no-look pass to Michael Ryder, who buried it like a guy who can score 30 goals.
- Patrice Bergeron being stoned on three brilliant opportunities, yet still managing a 2-point game.
- Phil Kessel whirling around the ice like a dynamo, or a guy trying not to be traded.
- David Krejci not missing a beat since last season.
- Aaron Ward shattering the glass with a slapshot.
- Zdeno Chara taking one decent slapshot all night, and ringing it right off Savard and into the net.
- Chuck Kobasew being an X factor, and picking up 2 assists.
- Dennis Wideman scoring a +3.
- Chara blocking 6 shots.
- Andrew Ference getting 6 takeaways.
- Milan Lucic throwing 5 hits in 13 minutes.
- Despite all of that, Thomas having to make 35 shots to preserve a crazy win... the first time the Bruins have won an opener since Steve Shields was the #1 goalie.
- Some twat from Def Leppard inverting the Stanley Cup, possibly with Satanic significance.

He's pretty confused about that last memory, which might have had something to do with the crusted blood on his nose, but Timmy Tom will sleep easy tonight knowing it's turning out to be a damned fine road trip already.

Bruins Training Camp: Top 5 Storylines

1) Two's company, three's a crowd
Coming into camp, we knew that Tim Thomas and Manny Fernandez would be fighting for the starting spot in goal. What we didn't know was that Tuukka Rask would emerge as the leading contender.

As if it's not complicated enough already, the Bruins are now operating with a 1A/1B/1C goalie tandem. Thomas and Fernandez have both looked rusty at times, while Rask appears cool and confident against big-league snipers. It's unlikely that the Finn will find himself in the driver's seat before the New Year, but he's giving Bruins management a good reason to take a Habs-like approach to their goaltending controversy.

2) Trade coming down the tracks
Hubhockey.com quotes Pete Chiarelli as saying there is a "better than 50 percent" chance that the Bruins will make a salary-clearing trade in the next few days. Phil Kessel's name is being floated as a possible piece of trade bait, though I suspect there would be a minor revolt in the fanbase if Kessel were traded so early in his development. Peter Schaefer, on the other hand, is probably keeping a packed suitcase handy -- if Chiarelli can't find a trade parter, waiving Schaefer wouldn't be out of the question.

[update: The Boston Herald has dropped Marc Savard's name as a possible casualty in a blockbuster trade. This would be not only shocking, but senseless for a host of reasons -- Savard nearly led the league in assists last season on a defensive-minded team, Patrice Bergeron is still a question mark as #1 center, the Ryder/Savard combo would be gone, and frankly it just doesn't make sense for the Bruins to make a blockbuster trade right now.]

3) Lucic struggles
Milan Lucic is all the rage in Boston these days, with Cam Neely comparisons being thrown about quite liberally among the fans and media. So the big winger's lack of production in the preseason might be a damper on the hype -- perhaps it wasn't such a good idea to assume that the 19-year-old would enjoy a Hall of Fame career before being crippled by Ulf Samuelsson.

In 4 preseason games, including an 8-3 thrashing of the Habs, Lucic has one secondary assist. That's not exactly top-line production, and suggests that extra defensive attention might become a factor in the dreaded sophomore season. Keep an eye on Looch's development, because it will figure into expectations not only for this season, but the Bruins' long-term outlook as well. The Bruins Hockey Blog suggests we might still be a year or two away from seeing the "real" Lucic.

4) Wheeler rolling
A counterbalance to Lucic's struggles is the encouraging play of Blake Wheeler. The young winger, who ditched the Coyotes organization to play in Boston, has been turning heads with a goal and three assists so far in the preseason. By all appearances, Wheeler has earned at least a brief opportunity to impress at the NHL level, probably displacing Jeremy Reich as a 4th-line winger. As a #5 overall pick in 2004 (just behind some guys named Ovechkin, Malkin, Barker and Ladd) Wheeler was expected to be a future All-Star -- perhaps we're seeing a turning point in Bruins history. The Bear Cave details Wheeler's chances of snagging a roster spot.

5) Ghosts of Injuries Past
Like the goaltending issue, this storyline has been played to death in the media already. Nevertheless, B's fans will be on the injury watch for the first several weeks of the season to ensure that several key players are able to recover from the injury-riddled 07-08 campaign. The Bruins Hockey Blog reports that Zdeno Chara is expected to suit up tonight in Montreal, testing his injured shoulder for the first time this preseason. In the same game, Manny Fernandez will continue to work on his recovery from IR, and of course Patrice Bergeron will be on the watch list all season to ensure he's not the next Lindros.

Fortunately, the Bruins don't face the Flyers until February.