Who Should We Cheer For?

We've reached that time when playoff matchups start to become tangible. Right now, there are four teams (Sabres, Panthers, Habs, Rangers) who could likely become the Bruins' first-round opponent. The obvious question: which poison would we pick?

Over the next couple of days, we'll break down the potential matchups according to traditional "who's ready for the playoffs" categories. These should reveal any red-flags which might signal a potential first-round upset. First up...

SABRES

Matchup: Early in the season, the Sabres were seemingly the only team who could figure out the Bruins. They play a fast-paced game and sometimes carry a large chip on their shoulder. Generally, divisional matchups favor the underdog.
Record vs. Bruins: Split 4 regulation games, and won a shootout.
Notable performances: Miller has been subpar against the Bruins, with an ugly stat line of 3.36 and .895. Pominville led the team with 1-6-7 and Derek Roy chipped in 3-3-6.
Recent play: Despite collapsing under the loss of Miller, picked up some timely wins against playoff competitors -- including an inspiring comeback against Florida.

Clutch player: Miller is the heart and soul of the team; he has to play big for them to win. Coaching: Lindy Ruff is the league's most stable and experienced coach.
Injury Situation: Mair and Numminen are banged up, but the real question: Is Miller 100%?

Recent playoff history: The Sabres made Conference Finals runs in '06 and '07. Historically, they lost their first 5 playoff series against Boston before winning the past 2. It was an epic matchup in the early '90s and still has that division-rival flair.
Tough barn?: Yes. Buffalo might be cursed for championships, but you don't want to play there in April. That's about the snow starts to melt and the local residents come out of hibernation.

Overall: C-minus. The Bruins would rather play a team who doesn't have their number lately, but the Sabres are clearly not a major postseason threat. The bigger question is whether the Bruins would survive this series in a condition to win the second round.

PANTHERS

Matchup: The Panthers can't seem to crack the Bruins' defense, and even a phenom like Vokoun can only hold a game close for just so long.
Record vs. Bruins: Brutal. A tight 2-0 win doesn't compensate for their 3 losses, in which they were outscored 14-3.
Notable performances: Vokoun (2.30, .941) would surely get the start over Anderson (5.04, .864). Against the Bruins, Horton (0-1-1), Weiss (0-0-0) and Zednik (0-0-0) were invisible.
Recent Play: Cooled off considerably. They've shown little poise under pressure.

Clutch players: Vokoun. There would be a lot of pressure on Bouw, Booth and Horton.
Coaching: Rookie Peter DeBoer has done an admirable job, but is not a magician.
Injury situation: Hulking D Bryan Allen is a longshot to return from a knee injury.

Recent playoff history: None. Upset B's during '96 Finals run, their only successful playoff year.
Tough barn: No, barring any rat-throwing.

Overall: A. This is the sort of opponent that a #1 seed is supposed to draw. The Panthers are spunky but they would be clear-cut underdogs in this series.

Could Boston win the East on Saturday night?

Pardon me while I shamlessly quote myself.

On February 5, I wrote:
If the Bruins can maintain a 10-point gap entering their 2/28 game against Washington, a win in that game would effectively clinch the conference.

Turns out that the Bruins will enter Saturday night's game with a 9-point lead.

So, is it really over if Boston beats the Caps for the second straight time? Not officially, but consider the following scenarios -- each of which assumes that the Bruins win Saturday's game outright:

- The Bruins could mathematically clinch the Eastern Conference title by going 13-5-1 over their final 19 games, a winning percentage of 68% compared to 67% for the season so far.

- If Boston simply cruises through the rest of the season with a .500 record (9-9-1), Washington would need to go 16-3-0 in order to surpass the Bruins.

- If Washington continues to win 62% of their games for the rest of the season, the Bruins would only need to go 7-12 in order to stay ahead of the Caps.

Even if the Caps win, their chances of rallying for the conference title are slim -- especially if the game goes to overtime.

But Thursday's game against Anaheim, in which both Marc Savard and Milan Lucic were injured in pointless late-game fights against the frustrated Ducks, should be a clear lesson as to the importance of closing out your opponents early. Far better for the Bruins to be able to spend the month of March fine-tuning their game and giving extra time off to the guys with bumps and bruises.

Can Anyone Catch the Bruins?

Before you read, let me provide a disclaimer: I hate cocky fans who think their team cannot lose. I hate fans who jinx their own team. I hate announcers who say "shutout" with 10 minutes left in the game. The point of this analysis is not to ruin my own team down the stretch.

Nevertheless, we're getting close to that part of the season where we can cautiously project end-game scenarios for each team. Like the guy on CNN who plays with the map on Election Night, we can "call" certain races before all the votes are all tallied. With that in mind, I'm going to call the Eastern Conference race in favor of Boston against every team other than Washington and New Jersey.

What makes this decision interesting is that Washington has a 3-point advantage over the Devils (which is very significant when there is so much ground to cover), but the Devils have played one fewer game and still have two head-to-heads against Boston. In that respect, New Jersey is currently in a better position to make a charge for the Eastern title. For this analysis, I will ignore the head-to-head games (too many W/L scenarios to track) but I will include the Devils' games-played advantage.

Here are a few scenarios to help you handicap the possibility of a last-minute finish:

IMPLOSION: The Bruins inexplicably pull a Senators and fall off the face of the earth. They go 10-20 over their last 30 games.
To catch the Bruins:
Washington must still have a winning record at 16-14.
New Jersey must go 17-12-1, a very respectable stretch run.

MEDIOCRITY: For whatever reason, the Bruins lose their mojo and go an ordinary 15-15.
To catch the Bruins:
Washington would need to go 21-9, considerably better than their current win%.
New Jersey would need to go 22-7-1, or roughly the same win% as the Bruins have this season.

SLIGHT DROPOFF: Boston runs into some tougher competition and goes 20-10, a slight slowdown from their current pace.
To catch the Bruins:
Washington must go 26-4 to tie. Um...
New Jersey must go 27-2-1. Either of these would be legendary comebacks.

EVEN KEEL: Boston just keeps plugging along at its current rate, going 22-8. Based on recent results, this is the most likely scenario.
To catch the Bruins:
The Caps would need a 28-2 record to tie.
New Jersey would need a 29-0-1 streak, challenging the 1979-80 Flyers' record 35-game undefeated streak.

EVEN BETTER: Somehow, the Bruins actually step up their game and go 25-5. Neither the Caps nor Devils could mathematically catch up, even if they won all their remaining games.

Projecting forward:
For every Boston win, and for every Caps and Devils loss, the likelihood of a comeback drops significantly. If the Bruins can maintain a 10-point gap entering their 2/28 game against Washington, a win in that game would effectively clinch the conference.

If that were the case, Boston would play the final 6 weeks of their schedule without any pressure to jockey for playoff positioning. Their only motivation for winning would be to try and get the #1 overall seed from San Jose, to hone their execution in advance of the playoffs, and to keep the roster as healthy and productive as possible.