7 games to watch in 2009-10

October 1st vs. Washington - All eyes will be on this opening night matchup of Eastern Conference contenders. Expect a huge amount of media attention and a sloppy, entertaining game. This is also the first matchup in a neat home-and-home -- the Bruins visit the Caps on April 11 to end the season.

November 3rd @ Detroit - It's been years since the Bruins visited the Motor City. Last season their home win against the Red Wings signalled a shift from also-ran into contending status; this game could also be a turning point in the Bruins' season.

December 4th @ Montreal - Montreal's official Centennial Game will close a disastrous commemorative year. Boston has played a huge role in spoiling the Habs' celebrations, from their Patrick Roy Day victory to an ignominious playoff sweep. It would be sweet to win this one, and flip one final bird to the Habs' Year of Self-Congratulation.

January 1st vs. Philadelphia - No extra hype necessary.

February 13th @ Florida - Leading into the Winter Olympics break, Boston plays four road games in six days: divisional matches in Buffalo and Montreal, then a game in Tampa and one in Miami. That's a brutal road trip leading into the 3-week break, especially since all four have the potential to be embarrassing upsets. This game will set the tone for the stretch run.

March 16th @ Carolina - Like the Florida game above, this will be the end of a grueling road trip that features games against 5 of the 8 Eastern playoff teams from 2009. Especially important is the Carolina game, which allows for a true measure of Boston's progress from last season. This one comes 24 hours after a game in Newark, and two days before the Bruins host the defending champs.

April 5th @ Washington - While I could as easily have picked the season-finale in Washington less than a week later, this game is the one I'll be watching most closely. The Caps have an opportunity to punch the Bruins in the mouth, and establish themselves as king of the hill before the playoff rush begins. I would compare this matchup to the Habs game last April 9, which devolved into blatant message-sending on both sides. If it's going to happen between Washington and Boston, it'll probably be in this game rather than their final contest.

Bruins waiting, watching -- and thoughts on other stuff.

Still no answers on the Bruins' second-round opponent -- depending on how Tuesday's elimination games play out, it could be any of 3 teams. So we wait.

• As expected, Tim Thomas is a Vezina finalist. The general buzz around the league is that he's a shoo-in over Western Conference contenders Steve Mason and Niklas Backstrom. And rightly so... Timmy has by far the most sterling resume' of the three, and a media-friendly personality to boot. Remember who does the voting!
  

• The other big story of the day is Joe Thornton's attempt to rally the Sharks past Anaheim after being down 3-1. I can't remember any player being under so much pressure to perform in a first-round series. You get the sense that if the Sharks lose, even in Game 7 double OT, the golden age in San Jose may come to a quick and bitter end.

• If the Rangers can manage a Game 7 win over Washington, the Bruins will happily face the lowest-hanging fruit left in the playoffs. New York has done almost everything wrong since taking a 3-1 lead in the series, but might squeak past the Caps because Mike Green is suspended for the final game... or is he?

• What's really sad is the two best series in the first round have been Jersey/Canes and Hawks/Flames. Both have been steamrolled by coverage of other, "name brand" matchups.

Big Z's Illustrated Guide To The Top 10 Games of 08-09

Before we close the books on the 2009 regular season, and start playing the games that REALLY matter, let's take a look back at the Bruins' best season in 35 years:

10) 11/19/08 - Boston 7 Buffalo 4

This game didn't count for much in the final standings, but it was one hell of a fun ride. Five minutes into the game, the score was 2-2. After falling behind 4-2 in the first period, the Bruins took over and scored 5 straight goals for the win.

9) 3/28/09 - Boston 7 Toronto 5

Much like the 11/19 game against Buffalo, this falls into the "wild ride" category. The score was 3-3 after the first period, and Toronto eventually took the lead on three different occasions. Boston reeled off 4 consecutive scores in the second period in this defense-less free for all.

8) 1/19/09 - Boston 4 St. Louis 5 SO

It seems weird to include a loss on this list, but this was a classic David-vs-Goliath game that had it all.

The Bruins came into the game on an unbelievable 28-5-1 roll, and the Blues were in the Western Conference basement. Surprisingly, St. Louis brought a 2-1 lead into the third period. Boston exploded for 3 goals in just over a minute, and looked to have won the game with 1:30 remaining and a 4-2 lead. Nevertheless, the Blues mounted a monumental comeback -- the tying goal with only 0.8 seconds left, then a win in the shootout. Since then, the Blues have gone 23-8-6 and made the playoffs by 1 game.

7) 1/31/09 - Boston 1 Rangers 0 (bonus coverage)

We might remember this game after we've forgotten the rest. Tuukka Rask, in his only appearance of the season, drops a 35-save shutout on the Rangers. This was around the same time that the fans really started to turn on Manny.

6) 2/26/09 - Boston 6 Anaheim 0 (bonus coverage)

Too bad we don't get to see Anaheim more often! The Bruins seemed almost clinical in picking apart the Ducks, getting 2 goals each from Ryder and Kobasew and a 35-save shutout from Thomas. But the most memorable action was Lucic going batshit crazy on Mike Brown, in response to an unprovoked jab to the honker. Looch managed to throw five bombs at a squirming Brown before the refs arrived; thankfully none of them landed or this would be an obituary instead of a game summary.

5) 1/27/09 - Boston 3 Washington 2 OT

Even before the puck was dropped, this was already a feel-good night in Boston. Bergeron, Lucic and Ference all returned after long absences, just in time for a 1-vs-2 matchup. Despite Krejci's improbable OT winner, the most memorable moment was the deafening sound of every member of Caps Nation simultaneously shitting themselves when Ovechkin appeared to have been seriously injured. Fortunately he popped up, threw some equipment in the tunnel, and returned later in the game.

4) 11/22/08 - Boston 3 Montreal 2 SO

Of all 53 wins this season, this might have been the sweetest. When Habs management decided to schedule Patrick Roy Night, they undoubtedly thought this would be a crowd-pleasing win over their rival. Guy Carbonneau played into the hype by shadowing Lucic with Laraque, a notoriously unsuccessful move that haunted him for the brief remainder of his career in Montreal. Lucic ended up scoring, Boston won a tightly-played game, and by the end of the night the Bruins had moved permanently into first place.

3) 11/29/08 - Boston 4 Detroit 1 (bonus coverage)

The significance of this win was mostly symbolic -- after an unbelievable November, the Bruins were just beginning to get cautious recognition from the media. But it wasn't until after they beat the Wings that they had the feel of a Cup contender. The game itself seemed anticlimactic, all but over after Ty Conklin gave up 3 goals on 9 shots, but the Bruins clearly had a new sense of self-confidence after this huge win.

2) 4/9/09 - Boston 5 Montreal 4 OT (bonus coverage)

Even though it was a glorified exhibition for the Bruins, this had the feel of a playoff game. Only a week before their actual playoff matchup, both teams were sending messages loud and clear. Montreal desperately needed a point to make the playoffs, so things got a little out of hand when Boston began to pull away in the second period. Several ugly incidents later, the Habs had scored three consecutive power-play goals to take the lead. Boston rallied in the third, and won on a brilliant play by Bergeron. The full significance of this game will not be known for at least two weeks.

1) 11/1/08 - Boston 5 Dallas 1 (bonus coverage)

This was where it all began.

The Bruins came into the game with an ordinary 5-3-3 record, having played 8 of their first 11 on the road. Dallas was under .500 and in a surly mood. The better the Bruins played, the chippier the play became -- and vice versa.

There's not enough space to run down all the emotionally-charged moments in this one, but perhaps the most significant involved Marc Savard coming to the "rescue" of Milan Lucic after he had been hit from behind by Avery. That was the moment when Savard truly became a Bruin in the eyes of the masses.

There comes a point in every championship season where a team finds its identity. That process began when the Bruins realized they could stand up to Ott and Avery while also destroying their team on the scoreboard. From that point on, the Bruins seemed invincible -- an 11-1-1 record for the rest of November and 12-1 mark in December followed.

It's April...

.... and the Bruins have a 9-point lead on first place.

The Caps and Devils both play tonight. If either loses, the Bruins could eliminate them from contention for the #1 seed by beating the Sens tomorrow.

It's almost time...

Could Boston win the East on Saturday night?

Pardon me while I shamlessly quote myself.

On February 5, I wrote:
If the Bruins can maintain a 10-point gap entering their 2/28 game against Washington, a win in that game would effectively clinch the conference.

Turns out that the Bruins will enter Saturday night's game with a 9-point lead.

So, is it really over if Boston beats the Caps for the second straight time? Not officially, but consider the following scenarios -- each of which assumes that the Bruins win Saturday's game outright:

- The Bruins could mathematically clinch the Eastern Conference title by going 13-5-1 over their final 19 games, a winning percentage of 68% compared to 67% for the season so far.

- If Boston simply cruises through the rest of the season with a .500 record (9-9-1), Washington would need to go 16-3-0 in order to surpass the Bruins.

- If Washington continues to win 62% of their games for the rest of the season, the Bruins would only need to go 7-12 in order to stay ahead of the Caps.

Even if the Caps win, their chances of rallying for the conference title are slim -- especially if the game goes to overtime.

But Thursday's game against Anaheim, in which both Marc Savard and Milan Lucic were injured in pointless late-game fights against the frustrated Ducks, should be a clear lesson as to the importance of closing out your opponents early. Far better for the Bruins to be able to spend the month of March fine-tuning their game and giving extra time off to the guys with bumps and bruises.

Can Anyone Catch the Bruins?

Before you read, let me provide a disclaimer: I hate cocky fans who think their team cannot lose. I hate fans who jinx their own team. I hate announcers who say "shutout" with 10 minutes left in the game. The point of this analysis is not to ruin my own team down the stretch.

Nevertheless, we're getting close to that part of the season where we can cautiously project end-game scenarios for each team. Like the guy on CNN who plays with the map on Election Night, we can "call" certain races before all the votes are all tallied. With that in mind, I'm going to call the Eastern Conference race in favor of Boston against every team other than Washington and New Jersey.

What makes this decision interesting is that Washington has a 3-point advantage over the Devils (which is very significant when there is so much ground to cover), but the Devils have played one fewer game and still have two head-to-heads against Boston. In that respect, New Jersey is currently in a better position to make a charge for the Eastern title. For this analysis, I will ignore the head-to-head games (too many W/L scenarios to track) but I will include the Devils' games-played advantage.

Here are a few scenarios to help you handicap the possibility of a last-minute finish:

IMPLOSION: The Bruins inexplicably pull a Senators and fall off the face of the earth. They go 10-20 over their last 30 games.
To catch the Bruins:
Washington must still have a winning record at 16-14.
New Jersey must go 17-12-1, a very respectable stretch run.

MEDIOCRITY: For whatever reason, the Bruins lose their mojo and go an ordinary 15-15.
To catch the Bruins:
Washington would need to go 21-9, considerably better than their current win%.
New Jersey would need to go 22-7-1, or roughly the same win% as the Bruins have this season.

SLIGHT DROPOFF: Boston runs into some tougher competition and goes 20-10, a slight slowdown from their current pace.
To catch the Bruins:
Washington must go 26-4 to tie. Um...
New Jersey must go 27-2-1. Either of these would be legendary comebacks.

EVEN KEEL: Boston just keeps plugging along at its current rate, going 22-8. Based on recent results, this is the most likely scenario.
To catch the Bruins:
The Caps would need a 28-2 record to tie.
New Jersey would need a 29-0-1 streak, challenging the 1979-80 Flyers' record 35-game undefeated streak.

EVEN BETTER: Somehow, the Bruins actually step up their game and go 25-5. Neither the Caps nor Devils could mathematically catch up, even if they won all their remaining games.

Projecting forward:
For every Boston win, and for every Caps and Devils loss, the likelihood of a comeback drops significantly. If the Bruins can maintain a 10-point gap entering their 2/28 game against Washington, a win in that game would effectively clinch the conference.

If that were the case, Boston would play the final 6 weeks of their schedule without any pressure to jockey for playoff positioning. Their only motivation for winning would be to try and get the #1 overall seed from San Jose, to hone their execution in advance of the playoffs, and to keep the roster as healthy and productive as possible.

Bruins vs. Caps: Stuff To Look Out For

You seriously need me to tell you anything about this game that you don't already know?

#1 Bruins vs. #2 Caps: essentially a 2-game standings boost in favor of the winner.

Ovechkin vs. Thomas: Three days ago they combined to win the All-Star game shootout. Thomas stopped Ovechkin in the Elimination shootout, but AO8 won the trick-shot competition.

Here comes the cavalry: Patrice Bergeron, Milan Lucic and Andrew Ference are all back tonight. Other than rust, this should be pretty close to a full-strength game for the Bruins (who are still going to miss Kessel for a while). It's the closest thing to an even matchup that we've seen between these teams so far, as injuries were a major factor in the first two matchups.

Rask in the house: Manny Fernandez's "general soreness" is turning into "general unavailability", so Tuukka Rask is on the bench for the Bruins. If, for whatever reason, he ends up playing in this game it has the potential to be a watershed moment for the franchise.

Super sophomores: Nicklas Backstrom and David Krecji are probably the two best second-year players in the league at present. They might actually be matched up against each other, so keep an eye on that one.

Don't get attached: Kevin Paul Dupont reports that Chiarelli will be making at least a move or two before the trade deadline. Last season, that would have sounded like typical rumor-mongering by the press. This season, it's practically a stone-cold guarantee as the Bruins look prepared for a multi-round playoff run. The Bruins are practically obligated to ditch any remaining spare parts and make a try for firesale items (Nik Antropov's name has surfaced repeatedly).

The most important thing to watch: The absolutely amazing hockey that these teams are playing. Matchups this awesome are fairly rare in the regular season -- enjoy!

Bruins vs. Caps: Stuff To Look Out For

This game doesn't really need any extra hype. Boston and Washington are not only on top of the Eastern standings, they're playing the best hockey in the conference of late -- only Montreal, which beat the Caps and fell to the B's in the past week, seems to be in the same stratosphere.

From a Bruins perspective, there's a bit of nervousness about this game. The Caps trail by 11 points in the conference and have played one more game than Boston, but they're coming off a convincing win over arch-nemesis Pittsburgh. Washington dealt with some awful injury problems early in the season, but it's the Bruins who are at a disadvantage in this game. Furthermore, the teams meet again in a week so this will be a statement game for the Caps -- at just the wrong time for a Bruins team that's trying to keep the ship steady through the worst of the injury bug.

Injury report: Nothing has changed -- Milan Lucic will not play against the Caps, and Aaron Ward will be out for at least a week. The Bruins will continue to lean on AHL callups to provide depth scoring and decent defense.
Meanwhile, the Caps will be without at least two defensemen in Tom Poti and Brian Pothier. Blueliner Shaone Morrisonn is expected to play. Center Boyd Gordon will be a game-time decision.

Goaltending matchup: Fluto says to expect the Tank to make his fourth consecutive start -- perhaps the reward for his 40-save performance against the Isles last night. I suspect the Caps will hand the keys to Jose Theodore, who's started 5 of the last 6, though it wouldn't be a shock if they went with Brent Johnson who beat the Bruins last time around.

Divisional realignment: Caps fans are beginning to make serious pleas for a relocation to the Atlantic Division. They have a point -- their rivalries with the Pens and Flyers have become much more significant of late, and Ovechkin needs to be on the Madison Square Garden marquee as often as possible. Unfortunately, the Southeast Division is already so weak that it's hard to imagine a world in which they aren't buoyed by the Caps. BUT... if the Isles are indeed prepared to move westward, keep an eye on this possibility.

Home cookin': Only the Sharks and Bruins (by virtue of 1 fewer game played) have a better home record than Washington. What was once an echo chamber has become a nasty road destination, as the Bruins found out on 12/10 -- the last time they lost a road game.

Who to watch: The Wheeler-Krejci-Ryder line. Shut out against the Isles, these guys can't afford to have an off night against the Caps. Look for Julien to put them in a position to get quality chances as often as possible.

Bruins vs. Caps: Stuff To Look Out For

Tonight there is a marquee matchup in both conferences: Boston (#1) vs Washington (#3) in the East, and Detroit (#2) vs. Calgary (#4) in the West. One gets the sense that all of these teams will wake up tomorrow with a slightly different sense of self, depending on how these games go. Fans with access to the NHL Center Ice broadcasts will be able to watch the landscape changing before their very eyes -- what a great time to be a hockey fan.

Washington is happy to host this game, because they are far better at the Verizon Center (10-1-1) than anywhere else (5-9-2). I am always suspicious of teams that play a completely different game in one building than they do elsewhere. I am also suspicious of any team which is leading its division with the 6th-best record in the conference. The Caps are a talented team, to be sure -- but they're also one of the streakiest in the league.

Things to watch for tonight:

To make things uncomplicated, you can just stare at Alex Ovechkin the whole time. Chances are, all the interesting stuff will involve him anyway.

This game will feature two of the East's three best power-play units. The Bruins penalty-kill is slightly uncertain, pending news on whether Stephane Yelle plays tonight. If not, Julien is apparently considering Phil Kessel to be PK material these days (the most unlikeliest of turns), which should be a huge red flag to the Caps defensemen to keep an eye out for shorthanded rushes. Meanwhile, the Caps are missing power-play stalwarts Mike Green (6 ppg from the blue line) and Alex Semin (6 of 27 points on the PP), and former Selke winner Sergei Fedorov. Fedorov is one of those great two-way players whose absence will be felt in every part of the game.

The Caps have a slew of other injured players, frankly too many to list or try to keep track of. Suffice it to say: they are playing with about half their normal quality players. The Bruins are still waiting on good news from Marco Sturm or Aaron Ward, whose replacements (Nokelainen and Lashoff, respectively) have been more or less silent.

RUMOR ALERT: Semin apparently took part in a closed morning skate and was upgraded to a game-time decision. Bruce Boudreau is a smart coach and might bring Semin in for limited action in this key game.

The goaltending matchup is slated to be Manny Fernandez vs. Brent Johnson. Manny's start confirms that we are back to a 1A/1B rotation, an extremely impressive feat on his part and a testament to Julien's fairmindedness in handling the Bruins' goalie (non)controversy this season. Johnson is one of those guys who you know is good, who can beat you any night, but you just don't think about when someone asks you to name the top 30 goalies in the league.

TIDBIT: Fernandez' 7-game winning streak is the longest for a Boston goalie since.... wait for it.... Jon Casey. Half the Bruins couldn't even walk when Casey was a B-list starter for the Bruins.

Things got a little heated last season, when these teams were in fierce contention for a playoff berth. Both lost in the first round, but took a big step toward legitimacy in the process. Both are still using each other as measuring sticks, but now from the other end of the playoff bracket. Expect this one to be feisty and fast-paced, and to make some waves in the power rankings.

Yelle Suffers Injury to Upper Body, Dignity

In the course of the season, you expect to deal with injuries -- but not like this. Stephane Yelle collided with linesman Mark Shewchyk during the second period of Monday night's game against Tampa, and let's be honest... he made Shewchyk look like the second coming of Scott Stevens.

Yelle is currently questionable for tonight's game in Washington, as he seems to have triggered muscle spasms in his ribs. First reports suggested he might be out for weeks, but the diagnosis has lightened and it looks like Yelle will be back in the lineup much sooner.

In the meantime the Bruins have recalled Czech pest Vladimir Sobotka from Providence on an emergency basis, with the intention of inserting him into Yelle's spot on the 4th line. Sobotka is not the most talented guy in the world, but he adds a healthy dose of sandpaper and has a knack for stirring the pot when the team needs a lift. More importantly, he has a legit NHL skill-set and Bruins fans have been waiting for him to get another shot at life in the big league.

Sobotka seems unsure whether he'll play tonight; I would assume Julien would play it safe with Yelle tonight and give Vlad the nod. That being the case, the Bruins PK unit would be shaken up slightly against the conference's third-best PP unit... which could have a significant effect on the outcome of this important game.

But it's not all bad news for Sobotka if he gets sent back down -- Friday night is Sobotka Bobblehead Night in Providence.