Bruins waiting, watching -- and thoughts on other stuff.

Still no answers on the Bruins' second-round opponent -- depending on how Tuesday's elimination games play out, it could be any of 3 teams. So we wait.

• As expected, Tim Thomas is a Vezina finalist. The general buzz around the league is that he's a shoo-in over Western Conference contenders Steve Mason and Niklas Backstrom. And rightly so... Timmy has by far the most sterling resume' of the three, and a media-friendly personality to boot. Remember who does the voting!
  

• The other big story of the day is Joe Thornton's attempt to rally the Sharks past Anaheim after being down 3-1. I can't remember any player being under so much pressure to perform in a first-round series. You get the sense that if the Sharks lose, even in Game 7 double OT, the golden age in San Jose may come to a quick and bitter end.

• If the Rangers can manage a Game 7 win over Washington, the Bruins will happily face the lowest-hanging fruit left in the playoffs. New York has done almost everything wrong since taking a 3-1 lead in the series, but might squeak past the Caps because Mike Green is suspended for the final game... or is he?

• What's really sad is the two best series in the first round have been Jersey/Canes and Hawks/Flames. Both have been steamrolled by coverage of other, "name brand" matchups.

It's April...

.... and the Bruins have a 9-point lead on first place.

The Caps and Devils both play tonight. If either loses, the Bruins could eliminate them from contention for the #1 seed by beating the Sens tomorrow.

It's almost time...

What's On The Line Tonight?

Think about it this way:

IF the Bruins lose tonight
AND the Devils win their next game against the Wild (likely)...

THEN Jersey could pull into a tie for the Conference lead with a game in hand on Sunday.

Yikes.

Can Anyone Catch the Bruins?

Before you read, let me provide a disclaimer: I hate cocky fans who think their team cannot lose. I hate fans who jinx their own team. I hate announcers who say "shutout" with 10 minutes left in the game. The point of this analysis is not to ruin my own team down the stretch.

Nevertheless, we're getting close to that part of the season where we can cautiously project end-game scenarios for each team. Like the guy on CNN who plays with the map on Election Night, we can "call" certain races before all the votes are all tallied. With that in mind, I'm going to call the Eastern Conference race in favor of Boston against every team other than Washington and New Jersey.

What makes this decision interesting is that Washington has a 3-point advantage over the Devils (which is very significant when there is so much ground to cover), but the Devils have played one fewer game and still have two head-to-heads against Boston. In that respect, New Jersey is currently in a better position to make a charge for the Eastern title. For this analysis, I will ignore the head-to-head games (too many W/L scenarios to track) but I will include the Devils' games-played advantage.

Here are a few scenarios to help you handicap the possibility of a last-minute finish:

IMPLOSION: The Bruins inexplicably pull a Senators and fall off the face of the earth. They go 10-20 over their last 30 games.
To catch the Bruins:
Washington must still have a winning record at 16-14.
New Jersey must go 17-12-1, a very respectable stretch run.

MEDIOCRITY: For whatever reason, the Bruins lose their mojo and go an ordinary 15-15.
To catch the Bruins:
Washington would need to go 21-9, considerably better than their current win%.
New Jersey would need to go 22-7-1, or roughly the same win% as the Bruins have this season.

SLIGHT DROPOFF: Boston runs into some tougher competition and goes 20-10, a slight slowdown from their current pace.
To catch the Bruins:
Washington must go 26-4 to tie. Um...
New Jersey must go 27-2-1. Either of these would be legendary comebacks.

EVEN KEEL: Boston just keeps plugging along at its current rate, going 22-8. Based on recent results, this is the most likely scenario.
To catch the Bruins:
The Caps would need a 28-2 record to tie.
New Jersey would need a 29-0-1 streak, challenging the 1979-80 Flyers' record 35-game undefeated streak.

EVEN BETTER: Somehow, the Bruins actually step up their game and go 25-5. Neither the Caps nor Devils could mathematically catch up, even if they won all their remaining games.

Projecting forward:
For every Boston win, and for every Caps and Devils loss, the likelihood of a comeback drops significantly. If the Bruins can maintain a 10-point gap entering their 2/28 game against Washington, a win in that game would effectively clinch the conference.

If that were the case, Boston would play the final 6 weeks of their schedule without any pressure to jockey for playoff positioning. Their only motivation for winning would be to try and get the #1 overall seed from San Jose, to hone their execution in advance of the playoffs, and to keep the roster as healthy and productive as possible.

Bruins vs. Devils: Stuff To Look Out For

Another awesome matchup of Cup contenders who are red-hot and getting healthier. New Jersey has won 7 straight and are hardly missing Martin Brodeur. Boston is 6-1-1 lately and returning several key players from injury. They're #1 and #3 in the conference, so expect a tightly-played classic tonight.

Running The Gauntlet: Back in October, one little section of the schedule stuck out so much that I called it "The Gauntlet" in the season preview. We are now entering that beastly stretch, which I characterized in terms of the February road trip but actually began on Tuesday against Washington. Here's our schedule for the next three weeks, with opponents' records and conference rankings:

1/27 - Washington 30-15-4, #2 (win)
1/29 - New Jersey 30-15-3, #3
1/31 - Rangers 29-17-4, #4
2/1 - @ Montreal 27-14-6, #5
2/4 - @ Philadelphia 25-13-9, #6 (yes, we are playing the entire top 6 in order)
2/5 - @ Ottawa 16-22-7, #13
2/7 - Philadelphia 25-13-9, #6
2/10 - San Jose 35-6-5, #1 in West
2/13 - @ New Jersey 30-15-3, #3
2/14 - @ Nashville 21-23-3, #14 in West
2/17 - @ Carolina 23-21-5, #10
2/21 - @ Florida 22-17-8, #8
2/22 - @ Tampa Bay 17-21-10, #11

Those last few games wouldn't be so bad, except that they're all road games and 4 out of 5 involve back-to-back nights in different cities. An 8-5 record would be outstanding during this stretch, and would pretty much clinch the #1 seed.

Kessel Cleared: You read it right, Phil Kessel is back after less than three weeks' absence with mono. The only major question-mark for tonight's game will be Michael Ryder, who is practicing with the team after coming down with the flu last week. [update: Ryder will be returning to the lineup tonight, meaning the roster is as complete as it's likely to get until next season.]

Expected Starters: At the beginning of the season, would have you guessed that a January 29 matchup between Tim Thomas and Scott Clemmensen would have been characterized as a "goalie showdown and possible Eastern Finals preview"? Thomas continues to maintain a Vezina-like level of play, but Clemmensen has been even hotter (winning 5 straight, allowing only 5 goals in the past 4 games) and has carried the Devils in the absence of the Living Legend. Last time around, it was a 1-0 decision -- don't be surprised if fewer than 3 goals are scored in this game, even with a rejuvenated Bruins offense.

[update: Looks like Manny Fernandez's "general soreness" is indeed a reoccurrence of the back spasms that cost him a few games earlier this month. Euphemistic language aside, general soreness in the back is not a minor injury for a pro goaltender.]

Chia Pet: God, did I really just make that pun? Anyway... KPD reports that Bruins GM Peter Chiarelli has earned himself a contract extension, which is now being sorted out with management. Most of Chiarelli's decisions have been solid and he's shown a clear sense of how to build a team over time -- let's hope for at least a 3-year deal.

What Does This Game Mean For Boston?: To put it plainly, time is on our side. There are only 32 games left in the season, and we lead the rest of the conference by 11 points. The Devils are one of two teams (the other being the Caps) who have a realistic shot of catching up, and it's a longshot indeed. If Boston wins this game in regulation, they are 14 points ahead of New Jersey with 31 games left and the head-to-head tiebreaker. That is, more or less, a death-blow to the Devils' chance of stealing the #1 seed. Also, this is a good measuring-stick game against a team we're very likely to see in the playoffs.

What Does This Game Mean For New Jersey?: A lot more than it does for Boston. The Devils are locked in a tooth-and-nail struggle for the Atlantic Division crown, holding marginal leads over the Rangers and Flyers with games-in-hand being an issue for both. A win would catapault the Devils into the #2 seed, but a loss could potentially drop them to #5 by the weekend. That's the difference between a home-ice series against the Sabres, and a road-ice series against Montreal.

Who To Watch: Kessel, to see if he's got his step back. Both goalies, who will probably have phenomenal games. Patrice Bergeron, who is making it look very easy to return from a concussion. Zach Parise, who is fast becoming a star power forward. Jamie Langenbrunner, who had a huge game against the Sens on Tuesday and carries a hot stick. Brendan Shanahan, because you'll miss him when he's gone.

Other Previews:
Kynch's Bruins Korner - Good thing he's not a Kings fan... I'm just sayin'...
The Bear Cave - Picks up on the Jay Leach connection.
Stanley Cup of Chowder - Noke is "questionable" with a mysterious injury. If it's mono... well, that would be gross.
The Bruins Report - Did we mention that Kessel's back?

Bruins vs. Devils: Lazy Takeaways

Hey, it's Christmas. Give me a break.

- The Bruins' 2-0 win over New Jersey was worth more than any 7-3 win over Atlanta. Not because they dominated, not because they built an unsurpassable lead in the first half-period, but because it was the closest thing we've seen all season to playoff hockey. Both teams were disciplined and playing as if they knew that it would be a one-goal affair. Winning games like this can make the difference in May.

- When they were called up, we expected Vlad Sobotka and Matt Lashoff to be NHL-ready players. I didn't have the same feeling about Martin St. Pierre. Scoring a point a game in the AHL doesn't bear any relevance to NHL success, and St. Pierre didn't exactly explode off the Bruins' depth chart. But he's played pretty well in his two games, forechecking hard and making safe plays in difficult situations. He's also taken faceoffs with occasional success.

- Speaking of which, take a closer look at the faceoff numbers from that game: Savard was 2-10, St. Pierre was 1-6, Yelle was 8-16. Not so great, right? Then you get down to David Krejci, who was 10-12. Have I mentioned how incredibly pleasing it's been to see that guy develop into a legit star?

- Manny says: "Touche, Timmy."

Bruins vs. Devils: Stuff To Look Out For

- Boston.com reports that the Bruins are letting Patrice Bergeron have a week of R&R before making any decisions about a timetable for his return.

The article optimistically suggests that Bergy might be back in mid-January but... here it comes... also floats the idea of shutting him down for the long-term and using the cap space to sign Brendan Shanahan. Thus proving that there is indeed an esoteric rule requiring the press corps to always have a will-they-sign-this-free-agent-veteran storyline on queue.

- The Devils still have this reputation as a lull-you-to-sleep trapping team, which is odd considering they are 6th in the conference in both offense and defense. That's just good, well-rounded hockey. They play a solid all-around game and will definitely pose a test for the Bruins after a pretty soft schedule so far this month.

- The only other good team the Bruins have played lately were the Caps, which also accounts for their only loss in 11 games.

- Patrik Elias was the NHL's third star of the week, with 3-5-8 in 4 games. Perhaps more significantly, he and David Krecji of the Bruins were both nominated for NHL.com's "Fan Fav" award this week. I don't think that one comes with a salary bonus.

- The Devils are nothing special at home, with a record of 11-5-1. Perhaps it's got to do with averaging less than 15,000 fans per game -- less than the Lightning, Kings and Panthers.

- Scott "Martin" Clemmensen will start for the Devs. Still no word on a Bruins starter; my heart says Manny but my head says it's Tim-Tom time.

- This is a particularly important road game for the Bruins, who nicely timed their long road trip to include a four-day break for Christmas. A win tonight would make the possibilty of 4 wins in 5 games very realistic.

Other previews:
The Bear Cave
Stanley Cup of Chowder
In Lou We Trust (Devils)
Fire and Ice (Devils)
Beast of the East (Devils, lots of links)