Is there any hope for the Avalanche?

What a mess.

Ten years ago, anyone's list of the top general managers in the NHL would have included Colorado's Pierre Lacroix. At that time the Avs were one of the league's premier franchises, possessed perhaps the largest stockpile of raw talent ever assembled, and challenged Detroit for dominance of the Western Conference. The architect of their mini-dynasty was Lacroix, who was especially noted for his crafty trades and free-agency gambles.

My, how quickly time passes in the NHL.

Today the Avs are a humbled franchise -- their record streak of division titles is a distant memory, and their home sellout streak has followed suit. While attendance has dropped to Predator-like levels, franchise keystones such as Joe Sakic and Patrick Roy have shown no interest in being associated with the basement-dwelling years to come. Last month the Avalanche fired coach Tony Granato, but only after letting him twist in the wind for weeks while offering his job to former teammate Roy -- who politely turned them down.

How could this happen?

To get our heads around the scale of the Avs' regression, we have to look back at the roster moves made during their salad years. Take a peek, if you dare, at their first-round draft picks of the past 15 years:

95 - Marc Denis
96 - Peter Ratchuk
97 - Kevin Grimes
98 - Alex Tanguay, Martin Skoula, Robyn Regehr, Scott Parker
99 - Mikhail Kuleshov
00 - Vaclav Nedorost
01 - none
02 - Jonas Johansson
03 - none
04 - Wojtek Wolski
05 - none
06 - Chris Stewart
07 - Kevin Shattenkirk
08 - none
09 - Matt Duchene

What's worse -- having only two serviceable players to show for 15 first-round picks, or having missed the first round altogether 4 out of 9 times leading into a rebuild?

Digging a little deeper, it's clear to see that Lacroix (and his brief successor, Francois Giguere) handcuffed the organization with a pattern of win-now-pay-later trades during his time as GM. The Avs have two Cups to show for his efforts, and that is not to be marginalized, but look at the long-term effects that these trades had in the long run:

2/28/1999
To Colorado: Theo Fleury, Chris Dingman - Fleury had 33 good games in Colorado, then ditched them for New York. Dingman played a few seasons as a role player.
To Calgary: Robyn Regehr, Rene Corbet, Wade Belak - Regehr wears an "A" in Calgary and has a good shot at making Canada's Olympic roster. Belak is still a marginal player in the league.

3/6/2000
To Colorado: Ray Bourque, Dave Andreychuk - Short-term additions to a Cup run, but neither stayed in the organization for more than 18 months.
To Boston: Brian Rolston, Sammy Pahlsson, Martin Grenier, 1st round pick (Martin Samuelsson) - Both Rolston and Pahlsson are among the league's most versatile players, and both will likely be playing in the Olympics this February.

10/1/2002
To Colorado: Derek Morris, Dean McAmmond, Jeff Shantz - Morris was a standout for the Avs but was traded after only two seasons (see below); neither McAmmond nor Shantz played for Colorado the following season.
To Calgary: Chris Drury, Stephane Yelle - In Drury's prime he nearly hit 40 goals with Buffalo; Yelle still a fine defensive center at age 35.

3/9/2004
To Colorado: Chris Gratton, Ossi Vaananen, 2nd round pick (Paul Stastny) - Only the Stastny pick makes this trade palatable. Gratton and Vaananen scored a grand total of 4 goals for the Avalanche.
To Phoenix: Derek Morris, Keith Ballard - Morris played 4 solid seasons in Phoenix before being dealt to the Rangers for three roster players; Ballard helped the Coyotes acquire Olli Jokinen.

3/9/2004 (the same day!)
To Colorado: Tommy Salo and a 6th-round pick - Salo won all of 1 game for Colorado.
To Edmonton: Tom Gilbert - Broke Paul Coffey's team record for scoring by a rookie defenseman, and is considered one of the top young defensemen in the game.

3/8/2006
To Colorado: Jose Theodore - The former Hart winner flamed out in Roy's shadow, achieving career-worst numbers and eventually skipping town.
To Montreal: David Aebischer - A disappointment for the Habs, but that's only part of the story. Aebischer was only the first of a series of netminders to stagnate in Colorado, a trend which continued with their recent signing of Craig Anderson.

In sum, the Avalanche organization traded away the better part of a perennially competitive roster -- one which could have been built around Drury, Rolston, Regehr and Gilbert -- in order to establish a degree of insurance on their playoff runs of the early 2000s.

Lacroix was praised as a genius at the time, but his roster was based almost entirely on talent gifted to him from Quebec (Sakic, Forsberg, Foote) and Montreal (Roy, Keane). He was able to draft a mere 6 players who would go on to win the Stanley Cup with his organization, including duds such as Aebischer and Scott Parker, and they all came out of the three drafts between 1996 and 1998. Every other roster addition came at a price to the organization's future.

And it would appear those lessons are hard-learned in the Avs front office -- as recently as February 2008 they were trading top draft picks for over-the-hill veterans (Adam Foote) and paying top dollar for complementary players (Ryan Smyth).

Where do they go from here?

Sakic's decision to step away from the organization after 20 years, and Roy's refusal to be seduced into the coaching position, marks a turning point for the Avalanche. The last vestiges of their dynasty years are falling by the wayside, and new leaders are entering the fold.

Denver's best hope is that #3-overall pick Matt Duchene will develop in the same mold as 2006's third-overall, Jonathan Toews. The Avalanche desperately need a dynamic player who can deliver leadership as well as production. They already have a young forward core in Stastny, Wolski and Stewart, but none of those players will be a blue-chip player in the NHL.

But the real damage to Colorado's future is in the defensive end of the ice. The loss of four good defensemen via trade has left the Avs with a patchwork identity on the blue line. Half of them are veterans are far beyond their prime; half are former prospects who failed to pan out as hoped; almost all are lucky to collect an NHL paycheck. And the tandem of Budaj and Anderson in net is merely a placekeeper until the Avs can find a true #1.

This summer we have seen the first steps toward a true rebuild in Colorado. A new GM (Greg Sherman) and a new head coach (Joe Sacco), neither of whom brings NHL experience in their position, will enjoy the lack of pressure to win immediately. More importantly, Sherman's first major trade is a clear break with their history: overpaid veteran Ryan Smyth was shipped to LA for a pair of NHL-ready defensive prospects. For once, long-term investments are coming into Denver instead of being sent away.

But unless their prospects make a shockingly quick adjustment to life in the NHL, Colorado will remain in the wilderness for some time to come. Though Avalanche fans will enjoy the emotional retirement of Joe Sakic's number at their home opener, it might be the last meaningful event at the Pepsi Center until the 2010 entry draft.

5 Damn Good Reasons Why... Brodeur Is Greater Than Roy

5) The Eyeball Test

Would you rather watch a goalie do this:

Or this:

Checkmate.

4) Roy quit.

I can't emphasize this enough. Roy QUIT on Montreal. Q-U-I-T. He skated off the ice, spat a few profanities, and never wore the crest again*.

It is a fundamental moral value of sports, regardless of place and circumstance, that you don't quit. Never ever. You don't quit on your teammates, your fans, your self. Even when you just got drilled for 9 goals in the worst game of your life, you suck it up and punch a few water coolers and get at it again tomorrow. Quitting is unforgivable, and Habs fans sully the dignity of their franchise when they insist that they don't care.

* until they kissed his ass enough to come back and celebrate himself for an evening.

3) Brodeur didn't beat his wife, he just screwed her sister.

Would you rather be Chris Brown or Hugh Hefner? Double checkmate.

2) He did it better, faster.

Numbers don't lie.

Brodeur has been in the NHL for 15 years, playing a total of 986 games. He has won 56% of his games, with a GAA of 2.20, a save% of .914 and 100 shutouts.
Roy was in the NHL for 19 years, playing a total of 1029 games. He won 54% of his games, with a GAA of 2.54, a save% of .910 and only 66 shutouts.

Brodeur played 70 or more games in 11 different seasons. Roy never hit that mark.
Brodeur won 40 games in 7 different seasons, including 48 in 06-07. Roy only hit 40 a single time.
Brodeur's performance was better than Roy's in 12 of their 15 shared seasons.

And most importantly, Brodeur didn't get to order a trade to a Cup-contending team. His numbers are all consistent with the ups and downs of his franchise.

1) If you ain't first, you're last.

There is only one way for an athlete to cement his legacy: he either does something first, or he does it the most.

Can you name the guys who will come after Roy on the career wins list? Of course you can't, because you don't care. Nobody does. When Brodeur wins his next game, Roy will forever be consigned to the ranks of Curtis Joseph, Chris Osgood, and Sean Burke as "guys who are in the top 20". Only one guy gets to be on top, and that's the one who's going to be a true legend.

Bruins vs. Sabres: Stuff To Look Out For (plus other items)

Bruins play in Buffalo tonight after a long layoff. The opponents get much easier after this game; with the exception of Saturday's date with the Red Wings, we won't see another top-5 team until after Christmas.

Things to keep in mind tonight:

- The Sabres will wear their classic road jerseys. It's good for the soul to see them looking like a team that plays on ice skates and not rollerblades.

- Not to make any crazy predictions before Thanksgiving, but a regulation win in this game would put us 13 points ahead of the Sabres with a 3-1-1 record against them head-to-head, and only two matchups left (1/3 and 4/11)... that would pretty much mean we no longer have to worry about them catching up. Not that we should be thinking that way just yet. But I am.

- The Sabres have lost 5 straight. After this game they have the Pens and then the Habs. They play Pittsburgh 3 more times before Christmas. If they don't turn it around in this game, it might not happen at all.

- Ryan Miller usually plays pretty well against us, but last time he melted down and got chased. Will he be intimidated or motivated? We'll see tonight. I suspect he'll play lights-out.

- Buffalo rolls out an outstanding top line, but that's about it. Afinogenov has only scored once this season. Craig Rivet is a -5. Numminen is a great story, but -7 after 20 games is ugly. Still, they're not an easy team to defeat because Lindy Ruff is a great coach. This is a must-win and they should come out fast and furious.

Thoughts on other goings-on leaguewide:

Interesting to see how chippy the Leafs and Thrashers got last night. Combined, these two teams are a veritable chowder of suck, but that just brings frustration to the table and leads to extra intensity. Apparently the Leafs were running Kovalchuk, who finally snapped Bure-style and stood up for himself. Later in the game Jason Blake got explodified by a very illegal jump-check, something we're seeing far too often lately. Check out the highlights here. Leafs fans are now beginning to clamor for an enforcer. Meanwhile, the Thrashers are perhaps the worst-run franchise of all time, at least in terms of player movement.

Patrick Roy's son got suspended for 15 games. No, not that son. The other one. This happened 4 days after Roy's number was retired. Five days after he broke the all-time wins record, the police had to investigate him for domestic battery. Karma has a way of catching up, sometimes quickly, and the way a man runs his family is the truest window into his soul. There is no doubt that Roy was an all-time great. But his legacy shrinks almost daily.

Great writeup on Felix Potvin by Pierre LeBrun. If you liked hockey in the '90s, you probably liked Felix the Cat.

Darren McCarty is now playing in Grand Rapids of the AHL. Claude Lemieux is playing for Worcester. Tragically, Worcester does not play Grand Rapids at all this season.

Keep an eye on Habs/Wings tonight. A win for us and a loss for Montreal would open up a very nice cushion, while the reverse would draw them within striking distance. Meanwhile, we have the Wings on Saturday and it would be nice for them to be a little banged up by the typical Montreal cheapshottery.