Pens' chances are better than they seem

Today's Mainstream Media statistics du jour:

- The home team has won 12 of 14 Finals Game 7s.

- The home team has won the last 6 straight Finals Game 7s.

- The last road team to pull off the upset was Ken Dryden's 1971 Canadiens.

Obvious conclusion: The Pens are up against monumentally poor odds of winning Game 7 on the road.

"The odds of surviving a road game in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals are approximately 14 to 2!"

Or are they? Let's take a closer look at those numbers before we clear a spot in the Joe for another Cup banner.

Here are the six matchups in question since 1971:

May 30, 1987 -Edmonton (#1 Smythe) beats Philly (#1 Patrick)
June 14, 1994 - Rangers (#1 East) beat Vancouver (#7 West)
June 9, 2001 - Colorado (#1 West) beats New Jersey (#1 East)
June 9, 2003 - New Jersey (#2 East) beats Anaheim (#7 West)
June 7, 2004 - Tampa Bay (#1 East) beats Calgary (#6 West)
June 19, 2006 - Carolina (#2 East) beats Edmonton (#8 West)


In 4 of the 6 occasions, the road team was not merely an underdog but a Cinderella story -- a plucky but inferior team facing off against a heavily-loaded #1 or #2 seed. The 2-0 record in #1-vs-#1 games is relevant, but not intimidating.

Now, there's no doubt that home ice is an advantage in a one-game playoff. The home team controls line changes, faceoffs, and gets an emotional lift from the friendly crowd.

But it also helps when the home team is a star-studded juggernaut and the road team is a doormat who happened to hit a hot streak in April and May.

"Never tell me the odds!"

So, Pens fans, don't despair when the folks at NBC run the 12-2 graphic and keep talking about the 6-game streak. You're facing nothing more than a 1-2 streak over the past 38 years for legitimate contenders playing a 7th game on the road.

For a shot at immortality, those are pretty good odds.

How should a team react to a blowout?

First of all -- damn, there are a LOT of Star-Wars-lovin' hockey fans out there. Who knew?

Watching the Pens lose badly on Saturday put a cramp in the theory that they're playing the role of plucky underdog. They simply looked overwhelmed, overmatched, and extremely frustrated. Kinda like Chicago after 4 games of playing the Wings.


But the goonery at the end of Game 5 brought up an interesting philosophical point: how should a team react to being blown out in the playoffs?



Hockey, of course, usually features evenly-played matches at this point in the season. We're so used to quadruple-overtime marathons that we almost look forward them (almost). Usually a Finals team plays every minute of the series under extreme pressure to perform, because there's a legitimate hope that they could turn the game around with a single play. But when that possibility is reduced to nil, as when the Pens had to skate onto the ice for a third period trailing 5-0, some interesting decisions have to be made by the coaching staff.

As Billy Shakespeare might have put it, had he been an NBC color commentator:

To goon, or not to goon: that is the question:
Whether 'tis nobler in the third period to suffer
Twenty minutes of left-wing lock
Or to take arms against a sea of Swedes,
And send a friggin' message to those #$%*!

Of course, the rule of thumb is that the Finals are no place for thuggery. But I would argue the opposite -- if the Pens lose tomorrow, their season is over. They have literally nothing to lose by roughing up the Wings, so long as nobody gets suspended.


The greater question, then: is it the right decision?


The historic record would suggest that there actually is some advantage to late-game goonery. In the past 20 years, over the course of 99 Finals games, Saturday's was only the 10th time in which a team won by more than 3 goals. In three of the previous nine, the losing team decided to get rough in the closing period -- and have gone 2-1 so far in the next game. Those who chose not to push the limits have gone 2-3.


The psychology behind these decisions is simple: you're at the climax of 8 months of grueling effort. You have only one or two games left at most. The other team sees you as weak, relenting, ready to break. If you choose to hang your head and skate away, you've got a much lesser chance of stunning those guys in the next matchup. They already know they can beat you, and that you'll let them.


So the Pens may have been wise to let the primal rage flow for a few moments. Kinda like Luke in Empire Strikes Ba... awww, never mind.



Here's how the previous matchups played out:


2006 Game 2: Carolina def. Edmonton 5-0
Ethan Moreau punched Glen Wesley in the face; Georges Laraque got thrown out for hitting from behind. Ugly stuff. But Edmonton won the next game, and eventually overcame a 2-0 series deficit before falling in 7.
2006 Game 6: Edmonton def. Carolina 4-0
The Canes went down quietly, but came back to win the 7th game.


2001 Game 1: Colorado def. New Jersey 5-0
Ignoring the Avs' hot power play, the Devils gooned it up in the third. The penalty parade was led by Ken Daneyko and Sean O'Donnell, who was kicked out for instigating. Jersey bounced back to win the next game, and eventually led the series 3-2.
2001 Game 6: Colorado def. New Jersey 4-0
The Devils racked up two fights, a high-sticking and a roughing penalty in the final two minutes of the game. That didn't stop the Avs from winning Game 7.


2000 Game 1: New Jersey def. Dallas 7-3
Dallas took the loss more or less in stride, and won the next game 2-1. They lost the series in 6.

1997 Game 3: Detroit def. Philadelphia 6-1
Lindros and Co. looked shell-shocked throughout this game. They didn't put up much of a fight in this game, or when the sweep was completed two nights later.

1996 Game 2: Colorado def. Florida 8-1
The final 40 minutes of this game were a snoozer as the Panthers simply skated the time away. They lost in an extremely unmemorable sweep. (It's no coincidence that Claude Lemieux didn't play in this game)

1991 Game 6: Pittsburgh def. Minnesota 8-0
The Pens won the Cup in this game, making "messages" a non-issue.


1990 Game 2: Edmonton def. Boston 7-1
Boston was stunned not only by the overwhelming Oilers, but also to a horrific series of injuries and poor defensive plays. As with the Panthers 6 years later, they simply skated out the clock and fell in a one-sided series.

A Star Wars guide to the Stanley Cup Finals

***WARNING***

Nerdiness Levels In This Entry May Be Hazardous To Children And The Elderly.

Do not read if you are pregnant, on medication, or recovering from a WoW addiction.

Galactic Empire = Detroit

A fading empire, ruthless and hopelessly corrupt, concerned only with hoarding power and influence, yet unable to adjust when challenged by smaller, smarter opponents. And that's just GM.

Rebel Alliance = Pittsburgh

All great rebellions begin in the hinterlands, in places so desperate that lonesome farmboys turn to religion and violence as a relief from their boredom. Western Pennsylvania sounds about right.

Princess Leia = Stanley Cup

Ooh, purty! Losta guys are gonna fight over this little lady, and more than a few are going to sneak a kiss before it's all over. Careful boys, she's been for a few skates around the rink already...

Luke Skywalker = Sidney Crosby

The Messiah, the Anointed One, the whiny brat who thinks he's a great leader at age 20.

Darth Vader = Henrik Zetterberg

Don't fuck with this guy. He will own you.

Han Solo = Evgeni Malkin

He might not get all the publicity, but he's the guy you really wanted to be when you grew up. At the end of the day, you can thank this cool cat for blasting Vader's ass and gifting the Golden Child his moment of glory.

Admiral Ackbar = Dan Bylsma

We're never offered a good explanation for putting this guy in such a position of authority. His primary role is to stand by the sidelines and figure out a way to beat the trap.

The Emperor = Mike Babcock

Don't bother adjusting your matchups or changing your strategy. He's already foreseen your moves and countered them in advance. Now he's going to make you watch as he destroys your pitiful band of rebels.

Jabba the Hutt = Gary Bettman

"Soon, you will learn to appreciate me..."

C-3P0 = Pierre McGuire

Go away, nobody likes you.

Mike Milbury = Gamorrean Guard

He doesn't let his lack of intelligence or speaking ability get in the way of his duties. Best not to leave him in charge of anything really important, such as guarding a prisoner or running an NHL franchise.

Bib Fortuna = Mike Emrick

Spends most of his time avoiding criticism of the boss-man. Is anyone else distracted by the shape of his head?

Chewbacca = Hal Gill

Raaaawwwrrrrr!!!

Lando Calrissian = Bill Guerin

Bet you forgot this guy was alive, didn't ya? Instead of retiring quietly to obscurity, he's back for one last shot at redemption.

Boba Fett = Marian Hossa

The bounty hunter knows no allegiances.

Obi Wan Kenobi = Mario Lemieux

A legend in his own time, he now gazes from above and offers quiet words of wisdom to his protegee'.

R2-D2 = Chris Osgood

Somehow, you have a faint inkling that the story is really not about the Golden Boy at all, but about this little spare part who always seems to show up at the right moment and save the superstars' asses.

Darth Maul = Johan Franzen

As if the Empire needed this guy on top of everything else they've got going for them. It's not even fair.

The NBC broadcast team interviews Gary Bettman.

Porkins = Eric Godard

You knew as soon as you saw this guy that he wouldn't be around for long.

Bandwagon time! Be sure to vote...

Hey, see that poll to the right of this article? The one that asks you to vote on which team we should support for the rest of the playoffs? Be sure to vote before you leave. Something really earth-shatteringly important depends on it.

Your vote decides who I endorse as my bandwagon favorite for the next 6 weeks.

This has been a weird postseason for me, because there's not really a clear-cut hero/villain dynamic any more. In years past, I'd rag on the Avalanche or the Ducks for being a team constituted of tools and goons... or I'd throw my hat in with a plucky squad like Edmonton which seemed to win against all odds. This year it's different. Look at who we have left:

Detroit Red Wings
Pros: The most professional team in the game right now, from top to bottom. Admirable leadership from guys like Lidstrom and Draper. Gritty self-sacrifice from almost everyone on the roster, game after game.
Cons: Unlike years past, this year's Wings leave me cold. Maybe they've spent too much time at the top of the mountain, but they lack that sense of destiny that was so enjoyable back in '97. It's like watching the Yankees, but with more octopus.

Chicago Blackhawks
Pros: A next-generation sort of team composed mostly of kids too young to drink (but you know they do anyway). Joel Quenneville rocks one of the best 'staches in the game. They are definitely the coolest team left.
Cons: They're like a rock band. Exciting and hip in small doses, but a tad pretentious when you get to know them well. WAY too much trash-talk makes it out of their locker room and into the media.

Pittsburgh Penguins
Pros: If they won a rematch against the Wings, it would be a lot like Star Wars. You know, with Luke and Darth Vader. Or with Vader and Obi-Wan. Or Obi-Wan and... never mind, you know what I'm getting at.
Cons: Crosby is perhaps the biggest villain in the sport. Fleury is perhaps the most overrated goalie (though Osgood wins the lifetime award). Somehow, the Guerin trade just seemed wrong, very wrong.

Carolina Hurricanes
Pros: They're the underdogs, and also the "cardiac" team. Gritty, hard-working, and old-school in tone. Cam Ward is undeniably a beast and probably the best clutch goalie of his generation.
Cons: Screw these guys, they beat the Bruins. Paul Maurice is the kid that even the nerds wanted to beat up in the parking lot. Scott Walker's black heart can burn eternally in hell, right next to Claude Lemieux.

Vote early and often!

Bruins vs. Pens: Somehow, This Could End Up Being Lame

You would think this matchup would be one of those A-plus, scalper's wetdream, destiny-making games. The defending Eastern champ on a hot streak, the would-be Eastern champ recovering from a slump, both of them pissed about their recent play, one of them playing for a playoff seed and the other for the President's Trophy. Chara and Malkin. Sid and Savard. Tim Thomas and Sergei Gonchar. The stuff that hockey fans just friggin' love.

But it looks like there might be a little bit of rain at this picnic:

- The goalie matchup will in fact be Fernandez vs. Garon. I taste vomit in the back of my throat.
[edit: glove tap to BewareoftheBear at espn.com for pointing out that Tim Thomas is in fact the likely starter for Boston, at least according to the team website. Looks like Manny is now a true backup...]

- A weird 3:00 starting time... who is watching hockey at 3 in the afternoon?

- Both teams playing back-to-back nights, and both of them were disappointing yesterday. The Bruins narrowly beat the dead-last Isles, the Pens lost to the hopeless Sens in a shootout.

- Neither Raymond Bourque nor Mario Lemieux has announced plans to suit up for this game.

So in spite of the name-brand label, this one looks like a relative dud compared to next Sunday's matchup with the Devils.

Good news -- after this game, the Bruins play only 2 games in their next 12 days. That'll give them some time to breathe and relax before hitting the home stretch.

Rangers Load Up, And Other News

Looks like the Bruins' Sunday-afternoon game against the Rangers might be even more colorful than usual.

The Rags have decided to go all-in for this year's playoffs, making a couple of big moves:

- Acquired forward Nik Antropov from Toronto for a draft package
- Acquired defenseman Derek Morris from the Coyotes for Kalinin, Dawes and Prucha
- Picked up Sean Avery off waivers from the Stars

The good news is that none of these moves are going to help the Rangers in the long run, as they maintain their reputation for trying to get a Cup the easy way instead of building a real team. The bad news is that they suddenly have one of the league's most potent blue lines, combined with a larger and nastier set of forwards than they've had in a long time. Oh yeah, and they've got a decent goalie too.

Other news from around the league as the trade deadline mercifully passes:

The Flames and Pens are the high-rollers of the day. Pittsburgh steals Bill Guerin from the Isles for a conditional draft pick in a last-ditch attempt to salvage their season. Calgary mortgages a large chunk of their future for Olli Jokinen and Jordan Leopold. Somehow both of these teams expect to get big results out of perennial postseason underachievers.

The Ducks get the award for Most Enthusiastic, making five transactions on top of the Whitney/Kunitz trade a few days ago. None of it will amount to much, other than stocking the fridge for a quick rebuild.

The Coyotes decide it's time to strip down and rebuild... again. Anyone got an empty arena in need of an NHL franchise?

Buffalo acquires Dominic Moore and Mikael Tellqvist, meaning nothing.

Brian Burke used his managerial genius to translate Moore and Antropov into a couple of 2nd-round picks and Martin Gerber. Ouch.

The Sens took another step toward a #1 draft pick.

The Habs completed another phase of Project Letdown, quietly running out the clock. No Vinny, no Marty, no nothin'.

Peter Forsberg retired.

What didn't happen: Florida didn't move Jay Bouwmeester. Tampa held on to both Lecavalier and St. Louis. Pronger and Niedermayer still play for the Ducks. The Blues retained Tkachuk for the rest of the season. The Avs didn't deal Smyth, Hedjuk or Laperriere. And Manny Fernandez is still a Bruin.

Shifts in the balance of power: New York, Calgary and Pittsburgh take big steps up. Boston and Philly get marginally better. Buffalo and Dallas make minor tweaks. Toronto, Ottawa, Anaheim and Phoenix are toast.

Ryan Whitney Traded

An interesting subplot to tonight's home game against the Ducks:

The Penguins just shipped Ryan Whitney to Anaheim in return for Chris Kunitz and prospect Eric Tangradi. This gives Anaheim a pretty significant upgrade on the blue line in return for their top left-winger and a major future (Tangradi is only 4 points behind John Tavares for the OHL scoring title).

Long-term, this might be a steal for the Pens. If Tangradi turns out to be an A-list stud, he could be no small threat as a compliment to Crosby or Malkin.

Short-term, the Ducks are going to come into Boston missing a very significant player in Kunitz. They'll need to juggle their lines for a game or two, which could mean a few extra turnovers or missed forechecks tonight.

No word yet on whether Whitney joins the Ducks tonight, but I'm guessing not. The Pens play in Chicago tomorrow and I'd imagine they're already en route. [update: glove tap to Bobby Orr's Bastard for pointing out that Whitney left the Pens yesterday to "be with his family" (aka get fitted for a Ducks sweater) in the Boston suburbs. Guess that means he's playing tonight.]

Bruins vs. Thrashers: Takeaways

For the first time this season, I got the chance to see the Bruins live tonight. As good as NESN makes them look, there's nothing like the real thing.

- Philips Arena is a fairly nice, though character-free, place to see a hockey game. It's part of the CNN Center, which is basically a mall/hotel complex, which makes for a Whaler-esque gameday experience. Go to the mall, grab a taco, see a hockey game.

Believe it or not, there are a decent number of Thrashers fans who really support the team. Unfortunately they are a minority in their own building -- more than two-thirds of the crowd is either visiting fans or casual attendees. Though the game presentation is sharp and the hardcore fans are dedicated, the overall atomosphere in the arena (even on a holiday weekend with a smoking-hot Original Six opponent) is muted. Well, muted is a soft word. Let's use "dead" instead.

Does the NHL belong in Atlanta? I think so. But only when the Thrashers organization gets its act together, and connects its fans with a promising and exciting team, will we see any rewards from this gamble. If the league decides to cut its losses and the Thrashers move, it won't be without collateral damage to the fanbase who continue to support them in spite of a mountain of challenges.

- Make no mistake, the Bruins didn't play winning hockey tonight. They were sloppy with the puck, especially in their own end, and took foolish penalties at bad times. Manny Fernandez stood on his head but was also very lucky not to let in 3 or 4 goals. With 10 minutes left in the game, I had that "We're playing right into their hands" feeling.

For their part, the Thrashers played very conservatively and spent the evening looking for a game-breaking play. Their problem isn't a lack of effort or coaching, but a lack of talent from top to bottom. This is not a roster that would be fixed by upgrading one, two, or even five roster slots. What can you do when you're in that position? I wonder how their fans feel about the second half of the season.

- David Krecji's assist on the game-winning goal was truly a thing of beauty. Only a truly special playmaker would've had both the vision and the skill to identify Michael Ryder's charge to the net and deliver a perfectly flat, precisely-timed pass across the entire zone while skating full speed and dodging a defenseman. It's becoming more and more obvious that the addition of Krecji is the single greatest factor in Boston's improvement over the past 12 months.

- Great to see Aaron Ward on the ice again. His game was mostly quiet, though he threw a crunching check in the 2nd. It'll be nice to start hearing scuttlebutt about Andrew Ference's return as well.

- Next up: Pittsburgh in a home-and-home to close out 2008 and open 2009. We've won 4 of 5 on this roadtrip so far and will be heading into our biggest homestand of the season. Should be a barn-burner at the Igloo.