Bruins vs. Sabres: Stuff to Look Out For

[Edit: Those following Oiler-Blogger-Gate might want to check out this interview with Oilers PR man J.J. Hebert in the Edmonton Journal. I am stunned at this man's inability to understand the difference between print media and the blogosphere. Want to know why the NHL lags behind other pro leagues in media relations? THIS is why. It reminds me a lot of the RIAA's misguided and costly persecution of online music sharers... a mistake which set them back a decade. Take heed, sports management professionals! Fans will turn on you much more quickly than you think.]

Inevitably, the Bruins and Sabres will end up shooting it out for a playoff spot this season. They finished only 2 points apart last season, and neither team has changed dramatically since May. So every time they match up, it's like a little play-in game.

- This is Versus' game of the night, so expect an audience of hundreds if not thousands.
- But seriously though, Versus has incrementally improved their hockey coverage. Like the growth of a tumor, you don't really notice it until you consider the state of things only a couple of years ago.

- Manny Fernandez gets the start again. He was solid but not special against Ottawa, especially considering he let in another softie. Tim Thomas was outstanding against the sniper-ific Pens last night. If Manny shows up with his B-game against the Sabres, this blog will officially endorse Tim Thomas for starting goaltender.

- These teams have lost only one game combined -- and by only one goal at that. The Sabres are undefeated, but lost to Atlanta in a shootout (the Bruins are better than the Thrashers). The B's have earned charity points from Montreal and Pittsburgh, but lost to the Wild (are the Sabres better than the Wild? We'll find out Thursday).

- Thomas Vanek was the Player of the Week to start the season. He's really good, and underrated. But he should not lead the league in scoring. Tonight would be a nice time for him to come back to earth.

- Buffalo has eaten the Bruins' lunch lately, especially at home. Tonight is not an insignificant test for an improving Bruins team which fancies itself playoff-material.

- The Sabres are one of the teams I really hate, along with the Habs and Flyers and Avs (the Oilers earned an honorary spot this week). I suspect that many Bruins fans feel pretty much the same way, and that Sabres fans share the sentiment. The players don't seem to care much for each other either. There is a lot of animosity in this series -- expect it to produce some venom this season. PS -- Sabres, Habs, Flyers and Avs... which one doesn't belong and why? I kid, I kid. (not really)

- PJ Axelsson will probably miss another game, which would make 3 in a row. That's getting close serious-injury territory, though everyone's mum on the exact nature of the injury. I'm predicting a groin pull -- any takers?

- A win tonight would put the Bruins only 1 point behind the currently-unbeaten-in-regulation Sabres. A loss could put them in a last-place tie with the Leafs heading into Thursday's game against Toronto. Don't listen to those tired old cliches of, "We're just trying to play 3 games at a time" and "We're definitely looking past this game". This one is big, and it will be scrappy. Good watchin'.

- Click here to watch a great anti-Sabres rant by that arrogant kid you hated in middle school, while he wears a hairy gumdrop hat.

Other Bruins-friendly previews:
WickedBruinsFan
Stanley Cup of Chowder
boston.com
Previews from enemy trenches:
Blue & Gold
Bfloblog

Bruins Training Camp: Top 5 Storylines

1) Two's company, three's a crowd
Coming into camp, we knew that Tim Thomas and Manny Fernandez would be fighting for the starting spot in goal. What we didn't know was that Tuukka Rask would emerge as the leading contender.

As if it's not complicated enough already, the Bruins are now operating with a 1A/1B/1C goalie tandem. Thomas and Fernandez have both looked rusty at times, while Rask appears cool and confident against big-league snipers. It's unlikely that the Finn will find himself in the driver's seat before the New Year, but he's giving Bruins management a good reason to take a Habs-like approach to their goaltending controversy.

2) Trade coming down the tracks
Hubhockey.com quotes Pete Chiarelli as saying there is a "better than 50 percent" chance that the Bruins will make a salary-clearing trade in the next few days. Phil Kessel's name is being floated as a possible piece of trade bait, though I suspect there would be a minor revolt in the fanbase if Kessel were traded so early in his development. Peter Schaefer, on the other hand, is probably keeping a packed suitcase handy -- if Chiarelli can't find a trade parter, waiving Schaefer wouldn't be out of the question.

[update: The Boston Herald has dropped Marc Savard's name as a possible casualty in a blockbuster trade. This would be not only shocking, but senseless for a host of reasons -- Savard nearly led the league in assists last season on a defensive-minded team, Patrice Bergeron is still a question mark as #1 center, the Ryder/Savard combo would be gone, and frankly it just doesn't make sense for the Bruins to make a blockbuster trade right now.]

3) Lucic struggles
Milan Lucic is all the rage in Boston these days, with Cam Neely comparisons being thrown about quite liberally among the fans and media. So the big winger's lack of production in the preseason might be a damper on the hype -- perhaps it wasn't such a good idea to assume that the 19-year-old would enjoy a Hall of Fame career before being crippled by Ulf Samuelsson.

In 4 preseason games, including an 8-3 thrashing of the Habs, Lucic has one secondary assist. That's not exactly top-line production, and suggests that extra defensive attention might become a factor in the dreaded sophomore season. Keep an eye on Looch's development, because it will figure into expectations not only for this season, but the Bruins' long-term outlook as well. The Bruins Hockey Blog suggests we might still be a year or two away from seeing the "real" Lucic.

4) Wheeler rolling
A counterbalance to Lucic's struggles is the encouraging play of Blake Wheeler. The young winger, who ditched the Coyotes organization to play in Boston, has been turning heads with a goal and three assists so far in the preseason. By all appearances, Wheeler has earned at least a brief opportunity to impress at the NHL level, probably displacing Jeremy Reich as a 4th-line winger. As a #5 overall pick in 2004 (just behind some guys named Ovechkin, Malkin, Barker and Ladd) Wheeler was expected to be a future All-Star -- perhaps we're seeing a turning point in Bruins history. The Bear Cave details Wheeler's chances of snagging a roster spot.

5) Ghosts of Injuries Past
Like the goaltending issue, this storyline has been played to death in the media already. Nevertheless, B's fans will be on the injury watch for the first several weeks of the season to ensure that several key players are able to recover from the injury-riddled 07-08 campaign. The Bruins Hockey Blog reports that Zdeno Chara is expected to suit up tonight in Montreal, testing his injured shoulder for the first time this preseason. In the same game, Manny Fernandez will continue to work on his recovery from IR, and of course Patrice Bergeron will be on the watch list all season to ensure he's not the next Lindros.

Fortunately, the Bruins don't face the Flyers until February.

Breaking down the Bruins' cap situation

Last week I referred to the Bruins' unenviable salary cap situation. Let's open the books and see just how the money will work out this season:

The NHL salary cap for 2008-09 is $56.7M
The Bruins currently have $53.4M locked up in actual payroll.
Add a $1.4M penalty for Glen Murray's buyout, plus some other jibber-jabber, and the "cap payroll" stands at $55.4M.
Therefore we have $1.23M of flexibility, should an opportunity come along to add a quality player, though probably not an impact player at that price (Andrew Alberts makes $1.25M this season).

The upside of this situation is that the Bruins have a very stable roster and there ought to be little temptation to go out and spend money on a "rental" player like Forsberg or Sundin. The downside is that there is very little flexibility to change the roster significantly.

Looking ahead to training camp, the biggest salary question mark for the Bruins is in goal. Tim Thomas ($1.1M) is coming off a career season, one in which he seemingly earned a lock on the starting position. But Manny Fernandez would make a pretty expensive backup ($4.3M), and hasn't really had the opportunity to fight for the starting role due to last year's early-season injury. Then there's phenom Tukka Rask, who appears ready to make a trial run in the NHL -- but Rask's $3.2M salary means that either Thomas or Fernandez would need to hit the road in order to keep the team cap-friendly. If one of the vets stumbles out of the gate, or Rask starts to get itchy feet in Providence, something will have to give. Such is life when your top defenseman is making nearly $8M a year.

Fortunately there is relief on the horizon -- the Bruins have only $43M locked up for the '09-'10 season, with most key players already signed on. That will provide some pretty significant elbow space to work out the situation in goal. It'll also likely mean that this is the last season we see the underachieving P.J. Axelsson, who at $1.8M is something of a burden. Phil Kessel should be playing with a fire under his ass this season as well, since he's up for a raise after the year is done.

Later this week: previewing the Bruins' young talent.