What's wrong with Tim Thomas?

Absolutely nothing, that's what.

The media are already beginning to pick up on the too-easy storyline that Thomas is stumbling in the face of his Vezina trophy and bloated contract. He didn't look great in an opening-night loss to Washington, and was lit up for 6 goals last night against the Ducks. Clearly, they conclude, he's due for a letdown season.

This happens with pretty much every goalie who achieves some measure of success, and in some cases (*cough*Theodore*cough*) the scrutiny is warranted. But in this case the lens should be focussed on a soft, passive defensive corps which seems to miss the grit and tenacity of Aaron Ward and Shane Hnidy.

What matters most for Boston is that Thomas is still playing like a man desperate to extend his NHL career. He made big saves against Anaheim while the game was still a close contest. He became more active handling the puck when it was clear his teammates couldn't handle the Ducks' aggressive forecheck.

Saturday night we should expect wunderkind Tuukka Rask to face the Islanders, marking his first appearance as full-time backup. If he plays well, the media are going to declare a "goalie controversy". But our attention should instead be squarely on Matt Hunwick, who really will be playing to convice Claude Julien of his worth. If Hunwick continues to be bullied by opposing forwards, look for Julien to bench him in favor of the stouter Johnny Boychuck.

That change alone might solve Thomas' struggles.

Breaking news: Hunwick signs for 2 years

Boston.com just reported that Matt Hunwick has signed a 2-year deal with Boston to avoid arbitration. Not much detail readily available, but I'm going to throw out a few educated guesses:

1) Hunwick's agent advised him to take a last-chance deal before going to arbitration, meaning he probably settled in the range of $1.6-1.75m/yr. I don't see him settling for less, but I don't see him getting any more on Friday so this was probably the best deal for all concerned. [ed: The Bruins made out better than I expected -- Hunwick's deal will average $1.45m/yr. This is a great deal for the Bruins, who can use every quarter-mil they can squeeze under the cap.]

2) This means that if Hunwick's career continues to arc upward, he will be in for an enormous payday in two years. The Bruins will have to make some very difficult decisions if that happens.

3) Expect movement on Phil Kessel in the near future. Hunwick was the only other question-mark on the 2010 roster, so Peter Chiarelli is now dealing with an absolute cap number.

Until today, I'd imagine that the dialogue between Chiarelli and Kessel was nothing but posturing. Now there's no point in kidding each other -- either Boston can afford to retain him or they can't. Chiarelli simply needs to know how much Kessel is willing to play for, and whether that number can be achieved by moving a player or two to another team.

If I'm right about Hunwick's new cap hit, my back-of-a-napkin tally has the Bruins at $54.6 million committed to this season, with a $56.8 million cap ceiling. Kessel will likely not sign any contract for less than $4m per season, and it's pretty clear that he wants to shoot for $5m if possible.

My expectation: within the next two weeks Chiarelli will find a taker for Chuck Kobasew, moving $2.3m off the roster. He'll offer Kessel $4.3m for 2 years, leaving just the slightest bit of space under the cap ceiling. And then we'll start talking about next season's cap crisis.

The Bruins' Slowly-Developing Cap Crunch

First, let's take a moment to revel in some good news:

- The Bruins won their 50th game of the season for the first time since 1993.

- The magic number for clinching the Eastern Conference is now 1.

- For the next 3 years (potentially), we'll have a goaltending duo of Thomas/Rask. A Vezina-potential veteran and a Calder-potential rookie on the same team? Good grief.

Now, the unsettling part. Boston.com reports that the Bruins signed Thomas to a 3-year, $5.2 million deal. While this might not even break the top 10 in goalie salaries next year, it is still Brodeur money and puts the team in a difficult cap situation moving forward.

Getting too close to the ceiling

The root of the problem is that the Bruins are a bit too young for their own good -- six key players under 25 (Kessel, Krejci, Lucic, Hunwick and Stuart) are up for contract renewal in the next two years and all but Stuart will be looking for a significant raise. But the Bruins are already squeezed against the cap ceiling, so extending these players' contracts will involve trimming salary in other parts of the roster. This is where a team can go from elite to mediocre in a hurry.

Next season GM Peter Chiarelli will need to re-sign Kessel, Krejci and Hunwick as restricted free agents (meaning they are free to entertain offers from other teams, but the Bruins will have the right to match). Their current salaries combine for a $3.8m cap hit; after renewal that number will likely be closer to $9m.

Trimming fat

There is a bit of relief on the horizon -- Glen Murray's $1.4m buyout could expire this summer, giving Boston extra breathing room [edit: Murray's cap hit is in the appeals process. If he wins, the $1.4m comes off the books; if the Bruins win, it remains until the end of next season. Perverse, isn't it? Thanks to the Bastahd for pointing this out]. Also, veteran Shane Hnidy will presumably be replaced by AHL standout Johnny Boychuck, a net cap relief of $250k. It's a safe bet that P.J. Axelsson will not be renewed at $1.8m, but there's no clear answer as to who will take his place (the Bruins could save about $1m if they can find a bargain). Also, Manny Fernandez is clearly done in the organization so his $4.3m will be a major relief. Altogether, Chiarelli will be working with between $5.5m and $6.9m.

$5-7 million in cap space... roughly $5 million in new salary. You can see the problem developing.

But wait... there's more!

As if this weren't already a fairly distressing situation, a similar crunch will develop in summer 2010. Lucic will be seeking a dramatic upgrade from his current $850k; it's hard to imagine the Bruins retaining him for less than Michael Ryder's $4m.

Then there's Blake Wheeler, who is currently making $2.8m and is eligible for arbitration if the team can't come to terms. Given his outstanding rookie campaign, it's also quite possible he will be making something like $4m in his new contract. Don't forget Stuart, who will likely hold steady at $1.3m, and Marc Savard will hit the free agent market at the completion of his $5m deal.

Oh yeah... and that's the summer that Rask will be ready to ask for a starting-goalie salary.

Sounds a little bleak, doesn't it? There are options on the table for Boston to keep the ship steady through all these changes, but none of them will be easy to swallow. Chiarelli is going to be faced with some tough decisions; check back tomorrow for details.

The Trade Deadline: A Plea For Sanity

My, what a difference a season can make.

This time last year, Peter Chiarelli played a conservative hand at the trade deadline -- no moves were made, as the team's biggest concern was to dump veteran salaries and make space for young talent.

Early this season, on the heels of an unexpected playoff berth, Bruins fans were talking about the possibility of making a long playoff run within 2-3 seasons. This year was to be a bridge between the past and future, and another road-ice playoff berth was the optimisitic outlook.

Now here we are reading articles speculating on the possibility that Chiarelli could make a blockbuster move for Chris Pronger, Keith Tkachuk or Erik Cole. All of these rumors assume that he would be willing to let go of promising young talent or high draft picks, and that the end-game would be a Stanley Cup run this spring.

Maybe it's time to stop and take a deep breath. We're moving a bit too fast, aren't we?

Some perspective: Phil Kessel (21), David Krecji (22) and Matt Hunwick (23) are all coming up for contract renewal this summer. The size and length of those contracts will set the landscape for the Chiarelli-era Bruins -- presumably for the next 3-5 years. At the same time, the Bruins will likely dump or cut the salaries of veterans Stephane Yelle, P.J. Axelsson and Shane Hnidy. And of course, in the process they'll work out a plan of succession for the goaltending position -- which is complicated by the fact that Tuukka Rask's contract is finished after next season.

Perhaps more importantly, next summer the Bruins will renegotiate contracts with Marc Savard, Milan Lucic, Blake Wheeler, Andrew Ference, Aaron Ward, Mark Stuart, Shawn Thornton and Petteri Nokelainen.

All of this means that the Bruins are, effectively, still in the middle of the rebuilding process. As good as they may be at present, only a handful of players are locked up through next summer. It would be unwise to move prospects or draft picks under the assumption that they're expendable, without knowing for certain whether key players such as Savard and Kessel will be around for much longer.

Of course, it's difficult not to see this season as a now-or-never opportunity to bring home the Cup, with the Bruins playing their best hockey in 35 years. But let's take a lesson from last year's Pens -- today's rental player is tomorrow's lost scoring depth. For a team that's got such a bright future, that might be the difference between a dynasty and a bunch of 8th-place finishes.

Thoughts on Bruins/Sabres, Bruins/Panthers

All good things must come to an end, but this hot streak just seems to stretch on and on. Therefore, I believe, we should be prepared for a major letdown very soon. All things considered, I'd rather it be tonight than on Saturday. But first, the positives:


Bruins/Sabres

- For most of the season so far, Zdeno Chara has had no room to operate. Even on the PP, he always has a defender stuck to him like glue. That's why he's rarely able to unleash his nuclear slapshot, and hasn't been much of a factor as a pointman. So it's odd that the Sabres (who should know better, since they play him 28 times this season) gave Z so much room -- he scored twice, so don't expect them to do it again Wednesday.

- At their best, the Lucic/Savard/Kessel line is just dreamy to watch. Lucic and Savard are to the 2000s what Neely and Oates were to the 90s. Kessel is something different altogether, a pure goal scorer like the Bruins haven't seen in a long, long time.

- One door closes, another opens: Matt Hunwick has a goal, two assists and a +2 in relief of Andrew Ference. He's got great foot speed and a sense of when to jump into the play. Though he still makes the occasional rookie mistake, his career arc will be a lot like Ference's... which makes this early experience invaluable.

- Games against the Sabres are important enough anyway, but after Wednesday the Bruins will only play them twice -- January 2 and April 11. So winning a 4-point divisional game is huge for a team now eyeing a division title.

Bruins/Panthers

- The Panthers are astonishingly low-powered on offense -- Nathan Horton leads them with 11 points (Savard has 25 for Boston).

- Though his stats are poor, Tomas Vokoun is one of the league's elite goaltenders. He can shut you down no matter how you play. Putting him up against Tim Thomas is a great matchup of underrated netminders.

- Jay Bouwmeester still hasn't scored yet this season. Think he's squeezing the stick by now? You better believe he will shoot the puck at every possible opportunity.

- The Bruins have to be very careful not to look past this game to Saturday night, when they visit Montreal for Roy's number retirement. The Montreal media will be on them as soon as this game is over. In a sense, I'd almost rather they lose this one if it helps relieve some pressure against the Habs.

Bruins vs. Leafs: Stuff To Look Out For

The Bruins take on the Maple Leafs tomorrow night, ending a 4-day break. Here are a few plotlines to follow:

Statement Game: The two teams are basically neck-and-neck in the conference and divisional races; a Leafs win would vault them past Boston into an unexpected 2nd place. Two weeks ago, Toronto surprised the Bruins by playing a pretty solid game and scoring 4 straight goals. The secret is out -- they might not be a dynasty in the making, but the Leafs regularly exceed expectations and are not a doormat. In this game there will be no surprises, so it will basically be a benchmark to see whether Toronto is for real.

Rest or Rust?: The Bruins began their season with a frantic schedule including two long road trips, so the Powers-That-Be rewarded them with a few days off after Saturday's victory over Dallas. Under normal circumstances I'd be worried that they'd come out and stink up the Gahden for at least 20 minutes, but that might not be the case this time around. The team was supercharged after the emotional, fight-filled win over Dallas and has had 4 days to let that energy stew. I would not want to be the Leafs in this situation.

Playing to Their Strengths: The Leafs are solid on offense (12th) but one of the worst defensive teams in the NHL (27th). The Bruins are pretty much the opposite (25th and 12th, respectively). That's pretty much all you need to know about how they'll approach this game. Daring prediction: the Leafs will try to score a lot.

Manny?: No word yet on starting goalies, but this is the sort of game you'd expect Julien to hand over to Manny Fernandez. Tim Thomas has been smoking hot of late, but Manny needs reps if he's going to actually compete for the #1 position... though that ship appears to have sailed already. [update: Boston.com predicts that Thomas will start his fifth straight game tonight. This pretty much puts a fork in the notion that he and Fernandez will be a platoon -- hope that bench seat's comfy, Manny.]

Clean Bill of Health: Chuck Kobasew is expected to return to the Bruins lineup after nearly a month, which makes the Bruins officially a healthy team with nobody on IR (of course there are always murmurs about unreported injuries, particularly about Chara's health). Likewise, the Leafs have no injuries at present. [update: Looks like I spoke too soon on this one. Kobasew will not play until at least Saturday, and the Bruins will be missing the services of Shane Hnidy with the mysterious "lower body injury". Mark Stuart is day-to-day with the flu; no word as to whether he skates tonight.]

Hunwick In, Sobotka Out: Fan favorite Vladimir Sobotka was sent back to Providence, presumably to make room for Kobasew's return. Word on the street is that Shane Hnidy will sit out the game after giving his fists a nice workout on Saturday, and will be replaced by rookie Matt Hunwick. Hunwick played a solid game against the Habs in his only other appearance, so it will be interesting to see what he does with this opportunity.

Shootouts: Combined, the teams are 1-6 in the skills contest. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.

Leafs Blogs:
Bitter Leaf Fan
Down Goes Brown
Battle of Ontario
The Wonderful World of Loser Domi
Pension Plan Puppets

And just for kicks, the best Youtube vid you'll see today: