What's wrong with Tim Thomas?

Absolutely nothing, that's what.

The media are already beginning to pick up on the too-easy storyline that Thomas is stumbling in the face of his Vezina trophy and bloated contract. He didn't look great in an opening-night loss to Washington, and was lit up for 6 goals last night against the Ducks. Clearly, they conclude, he's due for a letdown season.

This happens with pretty much every goalie who achieves some measure of success, and in some cases (*cough*Theodore*cough*) the scrutiny is warranted. But in this case the lens should be focussed on a soft, passive defensive corps which seems to miss the grit and tenacity of Aaron Ward and Shane Hnidy.

What matters most for Boston is that Thomas is still playing like a man desperate to extend his NHL career. He made big saves against Anaheim while the game was still a close contest. He became more active handling the puck when it was clear his teammates couldn't handle the Ducks' aggressive forecheck.

Saturday night we should expect wunderkind Tuukka Rask to face the Islanders, marking his first appearance as full-time backup. If he plays well, the media are going to declare a "goalie controversy". But our attention should instead be squarely on Matt Hunwick, who really will be playing to convice Claude Julien of his worth. If Hunwick continues to be bullied by opposing forwards, look for Julien to bench him in favor of the stouter Johnny Boychuck.

That change alone might solve Thomas' struggles.

A John Buccigross masterpiece

Check out J.B.'s love-letter to Game 7 on espn.com.

Game 7 equals...

Cinnamon French toast and a side of home fries. Served by Megan Fox. In a Winnipeg Jets sweater.

A 9-year-old boy with his hat on backward shooting a flawless, roof-daddy wrist shot in his shorts on a warm June night at a tattered, rusty net. And, remember, Game 7 is not on a school night. Rejoice, Sparky.

The selfless soul of hockey, best defined by Bobby Orr's soul. If deity is selfless, thoughtful, humble and sensitive toward others, then we should be, too.


Yes. Nobody in the hockey world understands the soul of the game better than Bucci.


My contribution:

Game 7 equals a baby boy born in the season that everything seems to go right:

The Bruins run the table in first place and sweep the Habs...
60-goals becomes an achievable dream...
Cal Clutterbuck becomes a household name...
Tim Thomas finally gets his moment in the sun...
Sean Avery is kicked out of the league, and then let back in again...
The Winter Classic is at Wrigley, and Chicago is back as a hockey town...
The best goalie ever becomes the greatest goalie ever...
A team might move from south to north, for once...
The Richard Trophy winner is also top-10 in hits...
The Norris Trophy winner wears black and gold (pending)...
The Blues pull it off, against all odds...
Rick Nash makes it to the postseason...
Five of the Original Six teams make the playoffs, and the Leafs get a new lease on life...
Ryan Getzlaf arrives...
Sidney meets Alex in a 7th game...
Three of the top four scorers play in the Finals...
The two best teams in the league play all seven games for the Cup.

We win.

Bruins waiting, watching -- and thoughts on other stuff.

Still no answers on the Bruins' second-round opponent -- depending on how Tuesday's elimination games play out, it could be any of 3 teams. So we wait.

• As expected, Tim Thomas is a Vezina finalist. The general buzz around the league is that he's a shoo-in over Western Conference contenders Steve Mason and Niklas Backstrom. And rightly so... Timmy has by far the most sterling resume' of the three, and a media-friendly personality to boot. Remember who does the voting!
  

• The other big story of the day is Joe Thornton's attempt to rally the Sharks past Anaheim after being down 3-1. I can't remember any player being under so much pressure to perform in a first-round series. You get the sense that if the Sharks lose, even in Game 7 double OT, the golden age in San Jose may come to a quick and bitter end.

• If the Rangers can manage a Game 7 win over Washington, the Bruins will happily face the lowest-hanging fruit left in the playoffs. New York has done almost everything wrong since taking a 3-1 lead in the series, but might squeak past the Caps because Mike Green is suspended for the final game... or is he?

• What's really sad is the two best series in the first round have been Jersey/Canes and Hawks/Flames. Both have been steamrolled by coverage of other, "name brand" matchups.

To Tank or Not To Tank?

Timmy the Tank

Interesting matchup tonight against Montreal. Claude Julien is in the enviable position of choosing whether he really wants to push his team to 100% capacity to get this win. Perhaps it would be better to tank this game*, let all the key guys rest, and look at the bigger picture. There are two prevailing lines of thought:

Pro-Tank
- By scratching key players, the Bruins will be fresher and healthier for the playoffs.
- Starting Fernandez would give him a little bit of extra confidence (just in case) and will give Thomas a valuable day off.
- It's better that the Habs not face Thomas right before a playoff series against him. It'll allow them the opportunity for cheap shots, and give them a "warmup" game to read his tendencies.
- If Montreal wins, the Bruins will likely face NYR or Florida in the first round... thus avoiding the cursed Bs/Habs matchup.

Anti-Tank
- Because they're getting paid to win, dammit!
- By beating Montreal, we would greatly increase the chances of playing them first. That's a juicy, confidence-building matchup.
- Following on that thought, this game could potentially demoralize and frustrate our first-round opponent.
- Beating your top rival at home in a gritty game is more valuable than knowing that your 4th line got a chance to work on its forecheck.
- It's Bruins/Habs. It would be wrong to tank.

* Assuming the Habs are able to beat the Bruins' JV squad. Perhaps you've noticed that their centennial season has been slightly disappointing.



What do you think? Do the Bruins mail this one in?

Bruins Cap Crunch Pt 2: Bergeron's Days Are Numbered

Since last Friday, when Part 1 of this article was written, we've learned of key details in the Tim Thomas contract:


The contract is a 4-year deal worth $20 million -- more time and money than had been previously reported in the press. Despite the fact that Thomas signed the contract before his 35th birthday, the league will consider him "age 35" at the time of signing. Therefore his cap number cannot change; buying him out will have no effect, a wrinkle that Peter Chiarelli appears to have miscalculated. Oh yeah, there's a no-movement clause in the first 3 years of Thomas' contract. The $5 million cap hit is written in stone.



Good News

As pointed out at Bobby Orr's Bastard, the cap hits for Tuukka Rask and Blake Wheeler will be greatly reduced next season. In a nutshell, the terms of the new CBA will be in effect and players currently on entry-level contracts (including Rask and Wheeler) will have a maximum cap hit of $875,000. This will save the Bruins about $4 million if both players are on the active roster.


Pink Slips


At this point it's clear that the Bruins will have to move some salaries in the offseason. The question is -- who stays and who goes?

For now, we can generally guess that the team will move forward with a Thomas/Rask tandem in net. It's given that Manny Fernandez and his $4.3 million cap hit will be long gone by training camp. Compared to this season's cap numbers, that makes the goaltending position more or less a wash. All things considered, it's also unlikely that the blueliners' combined cap hit will be much different from one season to the next (unless Matt Hunwick hits the jackpot).

That brings us to the forwards.


PJ Axelsson will surely not be brought back at $1.85 million; it's up to him and his agent whether they want to re-sign for significantly less. If not, Axelsson could be replaced by Vladimir Sobotka for only $750k. The net balance of this situation should be a $1m advantage for Boston.


After that, the decisions start to get tougher. Cap casualties could include Chuck Kobasew ($2.3m), Marco Sturm ($3.5m) or Michael Ryder ($4m), though all of these would come at a significant cost to the team's forward depth. Of course, they would also need to be replaced by a bargain-basement player, leaving the Bruins shallower and damaging their chemistry.


A more emotionally-charged option would be to trade Patrice Bergeron. At $4.7 million, Bergeron made roughly the same salary this season as Saku Koivu, Alex Semin and Eric Staal. With all due respect to Bergeron's brave battle against concussion problems, he's being paid too much to score only 7 goals and to be one of only three regular forwards without a + rating.


The cost of keeping Bergeron would be more than meets the eye. Not only would it affect contract negotiations for the team's younger players (Kessel, Lucic and Krecji), but it would threaten the Bruins' chances of re-signing Marc Savard in two years. It's only speculation at this stage, but this pundit would be shocked to see Bergeron in a Bruins uniform at training camp.

How do they do it?

Only two teams in the league have managed to navigate these issues year-after-year, without seeing a significant downturn in the quality of their roster. Detroit and New Jersey have seen potential dynasties crumble in Tampa, Pittsburgh, Boston, Anaheim, Dallas and Colorado... and they keep plugging along, winning division titles and staying in the Cup race despite significant roster turnover. There are lessons to be learned from them:

1) Drafting, developing and trading new players is key to suriving turnover. Trading Petteri Nokelainen and Matt Lashoff in return for veterans made sense for this season's playoff run -- but the cost to the organization's depth is not insignificant.

2) If at all possible, it's vital to work "hometown discounts" into new contracts. Clearly this was not the case with Thomas, but Chiarelli needs to convince players like Kessel and Wheeler that playing for the Bruins is worth a slight pay cut. The Red Wings have been masterful at this game.

3) Today's hero is tomorrow's goat. The biggest risk in the Thomas extension is that he'll turn out to be the next Byron Dafoe. Signing players to long-term, high-dollar contracts is not an advisable approach to franchise-building.


So the Bruins' approach should boil down to a few simple principles:


- Ditch players like Bergeron and Axelsson who are not playing to their pay level. If possible, trade them for picks or prospects who will restock Providence when the P-Bruins are called up.

- Lock up cornerstone players like Lucic and Krejci to short, incentive-laden contracts that will keep them in Boston without removing accountability.

- Exploit Thomas' contract by working Rask into the lineup a few games at a time. He has a minimum of 3 seasons to work on his game behind a possible Vezina winner.

And pray that the cap doesn't shrink too much.

The Bruins' Slowly-Developing Cap Crunch

First, let's take a moment to revel in some good news:

- The Bruins won their 50th game of the season for the first time since 1993.

- The magic number for clinching the Eastern Conference is now 1.

- For the next 3 years (potentially), we'll have a goaltending duo of Thomas/Rask. A Vezina-potential veteran and a Calder-potential rookie on the same team? Good grief.

Now, the unsettling part. Boston.com reports that the Bruins signed Thomas to a 3-year, $5.2 million deal. While this might not even break the top 10 in goalie salaries next year, it is still Brodeur money and puts the team in a difficult cap situation moving forward.

Getting too close to the ceiling

The root of the problem is that the Bruins are a bit too young for their own good -- six key players under 25 (Kessel, Krejci, Lucic, Hunwick and Stuart) are up for contract renewal in the next two years and all but Stuart will be looking for a significant raise. But the Bruins are already squeezed against the cap ceiling, so extending these players' contracts will involve trimming salary in other parts of the roster. This is where a team can go from elite to mediocre in a hurry.

Next season GM Peter Chiarelli will need to re-sign Kessel, Krejci and Hunwick as restricted free agents (meaning they are free to entertain offers from other teams, but the Bruins will have the right to match). Their current salaries combine for a $3.8m cap hit; after renewal that number will likely be closer to $9m.

Trimming fat

There is a bit of relief on the horizon -- Glen Murray's $1.4m buyout could expire this summer, giving Boston extra breathing room [edit: Murray's cap hit is in the appeals process. If he wins, the $1.4m comes off the books; if the Bruins win, it remains until the end of next season. Perverse, isn't it? Thanks to the Bastahd for pointing this out]. Also, veteran Shane Hnidy will presumably be replaced by AHL standout Johnny Boychuck, a net cap relief of $250k. It's a safe bet that P.J. Axelsson will not be renewed at $1.8m, but there's no clear answer as to who will take his place (the Bruins could save about $1m if they can find a bargain). Also, Manny Fernandez is clearly done in the organization so his $4.3m will be a major relief. Altogether, Chiarelli will be working with between $5.5m and $6.9m.

$5-7 million in cap space... roughly $5 million in new salary. You can see the problem developing.

But wait... there's more!

As if this weren't already a fairly distressing situation, a similar crunch will develop in summer 2010. Lucic will be seeking a dramatic upgrade from his current $850k; it's hard to imagine the Bruins retaining him for less than Michael Ryder's $4m.

Then there's Blake Wheeler, who is currently making $2.8m and is eligible for arbitration if the team can't come to terms. Given his outstanding rookie campaign, it's also quite possible he will be making something like $4m in his new contract. Don't forget Stuart, who will likely hold steady at $1.3m, and Marc Savard will hit the free agent market at the completion of his $5m deal.

Oh yeah... and that's the summer that Rask will be ready to ask for a starting-goalie salary.

Sounds a little bleak, doesn't it? There are options on the table for Boston to keep the ship steady through all these changes, but none of them will be easy to swallow. Chiarelli is going to be faced with some tough decisions; check back tomorrow for details.

Manny considering retirement... WTF???

Glove tap to Cornelius Hardenbergh for linking over to this quote, buried somewhere in the bowels of the THN website:

“Uh, no. I think this is one of my last runs. You never know, but it’s going to be a summer I think (in which) the whole family is going to have to sit down and really talk about this. It’s been a good run. I’ve had ups and downs. I’ve got to look physically at if I can still accomplish all these things."
- Boston backup goalie Manny Fernandez when asked if he wanted to be a starter in the NHL again.

Well that's an interesting turn of events. Fernandez hardly seemed to be at the end of his rope, having only just recovered from a devastating knee injury and playing pretty well through the first half of the season. At one point he won 7 games in a row, lost one, then won 6 more straight.

But sometime in January it seems that his back started to give out, and he's only started 5 games since 1/08. The numbers in those starts are ugly - 5 losses, 22 goals against, and a save percentage that starts with an 8.

Maybe the severity of Manny's back problem was disguised by Tim Thomas' stranglehold on the starting position. His struggles were downplayed as "maintenance", but his recent performances suggest he's not going to find many bidders on the open market this summer. That leaves him in goalie limbo -- does he try to plug out a few more seasons as a middling backup, or hang 'em up before his time?

In either case, this would seem to cement Tuukka Rask's position as heir-apparent to the backup spot next season. The only question now is how much Thomas is going to be seeking in contract negotiations.

Who To Start On Saturday?

Interesting choice for Claude Julien tomorrow -- does he go with Tim Thomas or Manny Fernandez against the Islanders?

The matchup is a bit more important than it would seem on the surface. The Isles just beat the heavily-favored Canadiens in overtime, having completely outshot the "newly motivated" Habs on their home ice. They'll come into Boston with little to lose and a lot of mojo. Meanwhile the Devils will be playing in Montreal and practically obligated to win for Marty Brodeur. If we go ahead and ring up the 2 points for Jersey, that puts them 4 points behind Boston with a game in hand. This doesn't make the Isles game a must-win, but it's definitely a better-win.

If Julien puts Manny between the pipes, it will be at risk of another meltdown that would cost the Bruins a critical win. If he goes with Thomas, he faces an even more difficult decision the following day against Pittsburgh.

I'm thinking Fernandez will get the start, and he'd better make a lot out of it. A loss to the Isles might consign him to a permanent role as unpopular backup... a reputation he had just recently overcome prior to the Rangers game.

Bruins vs. Blue Jackets: God We Need A Win

- Oddly, this is the longest road trip left in the season. And it's the 2nd-to-last (Kings) game against any Western Conference opponent.

- Even in spite of their recent struggles, the Bruins have won more games on the road than any other team in the NHL. That seems pretty incredible to me, but the facts is the facts.

- Not that Columbus is an easy arena, but thank god this game isn't in Philly or Buffalo or Montreal. Tim Thomas is going to be under a lot of pressure to play well after Manny's shenanigans in New York. The Blue Jackets fans will dog him like anyone else, but at least he's not going to be dealing with too-familiar hecklers.

- Speaking of which, let's lay off Fernandez until his next game. Yes, he blew it. But he's also the backup goalie behind a Vezina-candidate ASG-winning fan favorite, who happens to make 1/4 of Manny's salary. Confidence is always an issue for goalies, especially with Manny and especially this season. We don't want the guy to have a mental breakdown going into the playoffs.

- Just a hunch, but I'd expect some significant line movement in this game. As noted in the previous post, there are a few too many guys on the slump right now.

- This is the first of 5 straight games against teams currently ranked 8th or lower in their conference. 13 of Boston's final 15 opponents fit that description... that should scream "hot streak", shouldn't it?

Check out a nice opposing blog at Light The Lamp.

How Awesome Is This Game Going To Be?

The Bruins host the Sharks tomorrow. How awesome will it be? It'll be this awesome:

- Boston leads the Sharks by 6 points in the overall standings, but San Jose has 4 games in hand. Therefore, this matchup could very well determine the eventual President's Trophy winner.

- This is the first, and probably the only time this regular season that the conference leaders will play head-to-head.

- San Jose is mired in a "slump" (loosely defined) involving a couple of OT losses to playoff bubble teams. Boston has split a pair of OT games in its past two contests. Both teams are facing long road trips ahead and could really use a boost in confidence.

- This will be the second time that Joe Thornton has returned to Boston since the infamous trade two years ago.

- The first time he returned, Thornton was ejected after two minutes for this illegal hit.



- Goaltenders Tim Thomas and Evgeni Nabokov are 2nd and 5th, respectively, in GAA among goaltenders who have played 30+ games, and 1st and 12th respectively in save %. Yet both struggle to be widely considered top-10 at their position.

- These are the second- and third-highest-scoring teams in the league (the Wings are #1).

- These are the first- and third-stingiest defenses in the league (the Wild are #2).

- Marc Savard and Thornton are possibly the best passers in the league, along with Sidney Crosby.

- Four defensemen -- Zdeno Chara and Dennis Wideman for Boston, Dan Boyle and Rob Blake for the Sharks -- are in the top-15 scorers among defensemen.

- Boston and San Jose are 4th and 5th, respectively, among all power plays. San Jose has the league's 4th-best penalty kill whereas the Bruins are 10th.

- 6 of the league's top 10 +/- ratings can be found on these rosters.

- San Jose's Joe Pavelski and Boston's Stephane Yelle are 6th and 7th, respectively, in blocked shots. That's right, even the shot-blocking defensive forwards are elite in this game!

- The only bummer about this game is injuries -- former Shark Marco Sturm will not get the chance to face off against his former club. Michael Ryder will join Sturm on injured reserve after undergoing surgery to repair his fractured orbital bone. Bruins defenseman Aaron Ward is a gametime decision, but likely to return after missing a game due to the flu. The Sharks will be missing defenseman Brad Lukowich and geriatric chatterbox Jeremy Roenick.

- Both teams have suffered a bit from mid-season fatigue, so perhaps it's a good thing that they've both been idle since Saturday.

It's been the hottest ticket in hockey for months, ever since it become obvious that the Eastern Conference was a one-horse race and that the Sharks were set for a franchise-best season. Expect a lot of media talk about Stanley Cup previews and "setting the tone", but the coaches will undoubtedly do their best to maintain focus on getting 2 points in the here and now.

Regular-season hockey doesn't get much better than this!

When does it become official?

Nothing shakes up a first-place team like the words "Goalie Controversy".

All season long, Claude Julien has artfully dodged the obvious conflict between having two starters. To watch or listen to Tim Thomas and Manny Fernandez, they're the best of friends and simply enjoying their experience as co-number-ones. Everyone's acted the consummate professional -- Julien has shown no preference for either goalie, both have played well and stayed polite, and the Bruins have surged into an uncontested first-place position.

Wasn't all of this supposed to get easier when the deadlock was broken, and the Bruins had a clear-cut #1 again?

When Manny succumbed to nagging back issues just before the All-Star break, Thomas stepped in for 8 consecutive starts, ringing up an impressive 5-1-2 record against stiff competition. According to the playbook, this is where Timmy was supposed to take full control of the #1 position, and Manny was supposed to assume the role of reliable backup for the stretch run. Manny might sulk a bit, but he would be gone either at the March trade deadline or during the summer. Meanwhile he could be counted on to take over if Thomas were injured or rattled during the playoffs.

Enter Tuukka Rask.

Rask, who outperformed every other goaltender during Bruins training camp last fall, is the Bruins' answer to Carey Price -- young, talented, fully developed and simply waiting for his destiny to arrive. He is the future, 13 years junior to both Fernandez and Thomas and already playing at their level. For the past two seasons the Bruins have promised him the starting position as soon as the Thomas/Fernandez dynamic is resolved.

Rask upped the ante during yesterday's matinee against the Rangers.. With Fernandez in the press box and Thomas exhausted from 8 straight starts, the rookie stopped 35 shots for a 1-0 victory in his first NHL appearance in over a year. It was more than a promise of things to come; it laid down a mandate to Bruins management to clear up their goaltending situation immediately. Suddenly, the future is now for a team stocked with young talent and a salary-cap bubble about to burst.

So, perhaps it's time to make it official: the Bruins have a goalie controversy. Tim Thomas is an All-Star, a Vezina candidate, and a fan favorite. Fernandez is a former Jennings winner and has been a top-10 netminder all season -- but is injured and a potential time bomb in the locker room. Rask is a would-be Calder candidate, a legitimate NHL starter and the future of the franchise. All three are circling around the starting position in Boston, but at least one will be the odd man out.

How does Peter Chiarelli break the deadlock? He has three options:
1) Trade or waive Fernandez before the March deadline, clearing $4 million in cap space that could be used to pursue a rental player. Move Rask into the backup spot for the rest of the season, and use Thomas as a "mentor" figure for the next couple of seasons as Rask takes on the starting role.
2) Reassign Rask to Providence, and risk the psychological fallout of sending a young goaltender back to the minors after 2 years of promises that he could play himself into the starting position in Boston. Continue to rotate Thomas and Fernandez during the stretch run, and let them hash it out in contract negotiations this summer to see who stays and who goes.
3) Reassign Rask to Providence, with the explicit promise that he will start next season. Let both Thomas and Fernandez walk in the offseason, and use the roughly $4 million savings to secure long-term contracts for RFAs Phil Kessel and David Krejci.

If you were Chiarelli for a day, which would you choose?

Bruins vs. Rangers: Stuff To Look Out For

Too damn early: These afternoon matinees are great for young families, terrible for bloggers. I woke up at 9 CST (10 EST) this morning and realized that the Bruins game was less than three hours away. Great for hangovers, terrible for game previews.

Mini-playoffs: The Rangers jumped out to an early lead in the Eastern Conference, largely as a result of playing 3-5 more games than anyone else but have been gradually losing ground ever since. They're walking a fine line between "contender" and "first-round fodder", so expect them to treat this as -- say it with me -- a measuring stick game. The peril of playing every Eastern contender in the space of a week is that the pressure never lets up. It's like the playoffs; every other night you face a team with that "I've waited all season to beat YOU" look in their eyes.

So far the Bruins are 1-0-1 in their mini-playoffs. That gives me reason for cautious optimism in this game, as the Bruins and Rangers always go to a shootout and therefore a charity-point is usually in play.

Fernandez chatter: Here is comes again -- without doing anything at all, Manny Fernandez is becoming a distraction. Hub Hockey reports that Fernandez' "general soreness" in his back is related to the knee injury that cost him all of last season. If this is true, it might torpedo any plans to swap Manny at the trade deadline, while simultaneously making him a giant question-mark for the late season and playoffs. Meanwhile, Stanley Cup of Chowder calls for Tuukka Rask to start this game, to see what the kid's got to offer and give Tim Thomas a day of relief. If Manny's going to be unreliable from now on, I'd like to see Rask getting one out of every five starts... just in case.

Which Rangers will it be?: So far this month, the Blueshirts have been torched twice by the Pens, crushed by the Habs and lost squeakers to the Caps and Sabres. They've also picked up victories against opponents from all over the spectrum of difficulty: Islanders, Ottawa, Pittsburgh, Carolina, Anaheim, Chicago. Pressure is starting to build on King Henrik, who was awful in the third period of their previous game (after being abused in the All-Star game). I'm thinking Tom Renney's neckties are starting to feel a little tighter every night.

"Maintenance Day"?: Hub Hockey also reports that David Krejci skipped practice for what Claude Julien called a "maintanance day". Just when you thought the Bruins were finished with injuries to their top-5 forwards...

Key matchup: Scott Gomez vs. Marc Savard. Gomez is one of the few stable things about the Rangers roster, reliably scoring points while making things difficult on opposing centers. Savard will be trying to get pucks to both Phil Kessel and Milan Lucic, both of whom are trying to rediscover their touch after returning from injury. If Gomez can make life difficult for Savard, he might be able to take a big bite out of the Bruins offense.

Fight I want to see: A matchup between Colton Orr and Shawn Thornton? Yes, please!

Other Previews:
Stanley Cup of Chowder
The Hockey Blog Adventure
Wicked Bruins Fan
The Big Bad Bruins
The New York Rangers Blog
Rangers Report

Bruins vs. Devils: Stuff To Look Out For

Another awesome matchup of Cup contenders who are red-hot and getting healthier. New Jersey has won 7 straight and are hardly missing Martin Brodeur. Boston is 6-1-1 lately and returning several key players from injury. They're #1 and #3 in the conference, so expect a tightly-played classic tonight.

Running The Gauntlet: Back in October, one little section of the schedule stuck out so much that I called it "The Gauntlet" in the season preview. We are now entering that beastly stretch, which I characterized in terms of the February road trip but actually began on Tuesday against Washington. Here's our schedule for the next three weeks, with opponents' records and conference rankings:

1/27 - Washington 30-15-4, #2 (win)
1/29 - New Jersey 30-15-3, #3
1/31 - Rangers 29-17-4, #4
2/1 - @ Montreal 27-14-6, #5
2/4 - @ Philadelphia 25-13-9, #6 (yes, we are playing the entire top 6 in order)
2/5 - @ Ottawa 16-22-7, #13
2/7 - Philadelphia 25-13-9, #6
2/10 - San Jose 35-6-5, #1 in West
2/13 - @ New Jersey 30-15-3, #3
2/14 - @ Nashville 21-23-3, #14 in West
2/17 - @ Carolina 23-21-5, #10
2/21 - @ Florida 22-17-8, #8
2/22 - @ Tampa Bay 17-21-10, #11

Those last few games wouldn't be so bad, except that they're all road games and 4 out of 5 involve back-to-back nights in different cities. An 8-5 record would be outstanding during this stretch, and would pretty much clinch the #1 seed.

Kessel Cleared: You read it right, Phil Kessel is back after less than three weeks' absence with mono. The only major question-mark for tonight's game will be Michael Ryder, who is practicing with the team after coming down with the flu last week. [update: Ryder will be returning to the lineup tonight, meaning the roster is as complete as it's likely to get until next season.]

Expected Starters: At the beginning of the season, would have you guessed that a January 29 matchup between Tim Thomas and Scott Clemmensen would have been characterized as a "goalie showdown and possible Eastern Finals preview"? Thomas continues to maintain a Vezina-like level of play, but Clemmensen has been even hotter (winning 5 straight, allowing only 5 goals in the past 4 games) and has carried the Devils in the absence of the Living Legend. Last time around, it was a 1-0 decision -- don't be surprised if fewer than 3 goals are scored in this game, even with a rejuvenated Bruins offense.

[update: Looks like Manny Fernandez's "general soreness" is indeed a reoccurrence of the back spasms that cost him a few games earlier this month. Euphemistic language aside, general soreness in the back is not a minor injury for a pro goaltender.]

Chia Pet: God, did I really just make that pun? Anyway... KPD reports that Bruins GM Peter Chiarelli has earned himself a contract extension, which is now being sorted out with management. Most of Chiarelli's decisions have been solid and he's shown a clear sense of how to build a team over time -- let's hope for at least a 3-year deal.

What Does This Game Mean For Boston?: To put it plainly, time is on our side. There are only 32 games left in the season, and we lead the rest of the conference by 11 points. The Devils are one of two teams (the other being the Caps) who have a realistic shot of catching up, and it's a longshot indeed. If Boston wins this game in regulation, they are 14 points ahead of New Jersey with 31 games left and the head-to-head tiebreaker. That is, more or less, a death-blow to the Devils' chance of stealing the #1 seed. Also, this is a good measuring-stick game against a team we're very likely to see in the playoffs.

What Does This Game Mean For New Jersey?: A lot more than it does for Boston. The Devils are locked in a tooth-and-nail struggle for the Atlantic Division crown, holding marginal leads over the Rangers and Flyers with games-in-hand being an issue for both. A win would catapault the Devils into the #2 seed, but a loss could potentially drop them to #5 by the weekend. That's the difference between a home-ice series against the Sabres, and a road-ice series against Montreal.

Who To Watch: Kessel, to see if he's got his step back. Both goalies, who will probably have phenomenal games. Patrice Bergeron, who is making it look very easy to return from a concussion. Zach Parise, who is fast becoming a star power forward. Jamie Langenbrunner, who had a huge game against the Sens on Tuesday and carries a hot stick. Brendan Shanahan, because you'll miss him when he's gone.

Other Previews:
Kynch's Bruins Korner - Good thing he's not a Kings fan... I'm just sayin'...
The Bear Cave - Picks up on the Jay Leach connection.
Stanley Cup of Chowder - Noke is "questionable" with a mysterious injury. If it's mono... well, that would be gross.
The Bruins Report - Did we mention that Kessel's back?

This Could Get Ugly

Of the many showcase events going on this weekend, one of the most compelling is the Gatorade NHL Elimination Shootout (nice name... not). The rules are simple -- miss your shot, and you're out. The shooters keep going until only one guy is left.

Thrashers 411 brings us the first-round lineup for each of the 4 participating goaltenders, including this gem for Tim Thomas:

(4) Tim Thomas (BOS)
Eric Staal (CAR)
Mark Streit (NYI)
Brian Campbell (CHI)
Jay Bouwmeester (FLA)
Mike Modano (DAL)
Ryan Getzlaf (ANA)
Evgeni Malkin (PIT)
Alex Ovechkin (WSH)
Alex Kovalev (MTL)

Ummmm... is it me, or does that last trio of shooters look a little difficult?

Bruins vs. Wild: Stuff To Look Out For

Bruins look to get back on a winning track tonight against Minnesota. The media will make a big deal of the fact that Boston hasn't lost two regulation games in a row this season. Or they will make a big deal of the fact that the Wild have picked up at least a point against Detroit and San Jose in the past week.

One thing you can count on: when Jacques Lemaire and Claude Julien go head-to-head, it's not going to be an offensive exhibition. The last time the Bruins played a defensive-minded opponent (New Jersey) they won 1-0. Expect that kind of game tonight.

The Wild have a pop-gun offense -- Owen Nolan is somehow leading the team in goals per game -- and they just learned that Marian Gaborik has effectively quit on the team. Their best hope for making the playoffs is to hold their opponents even, capitalize on mistakes and take advantage of the charity point.

On the other hand, they have some of the best names in hockey. Owen Nolan, Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Marc-Andre Bergeron, and Colton Gillies are hockey names if I've ever heard one. Cal Clutterbuck, Nick Schultz and Brent Burns sounds like the top of a batting order. Derek Boogaard, Marek Zidlicky and Krystofer Kolanos are just wow.

The Bruins' goalie duel is the most remarkable I've ever seen. It's insane to characterize Tim Thomas as a backup, considering he's made a pretty solid case for Vezina consideration, but the fact is that Manny Fernandez has been the better of the pair in the past month or so. Julien has been fair about playing the hot hand, so look for Manny to get the start tonight against Niklas Backstrom, another Vezina darkhorse who's coming off a shutout. All three of these gentlemen are in the top-7 in both GAA and save percentage.

Bad News: Looks like Marco Sturm will be joining Patrice Bergeron on IR, while he undergoes knee surgery. No timeline on his return, though one would have to think April would be an optimistic estimate. Between Bergeron and Sturm, the Bruins are missing most of a solid second line (60 goals between them) and are wasting an $8 million cap hit. This is definitely going to have an effect on player movement at the trade deadline.

Good News: Aaron Ward will be a gametime decision, on the mend from a charley horse. Hopefully he'll actually finish this game. Also, Andrew Ference is getting closer to returning.

Bonus item: The Wild are the only NHL team with an undefeated record (4-0) in Boston.

You Really Just Have To See This Stuff

My random thoughts for the day:

1) There should be a rule against goaltenders letting go of their sticks during the shootout. This is one of many incidents that could be avoided with more straightforward rules.

2) Sundin's choice of Vancouver's mega-money offer should surprise no one.

3) Moment of self-reflection: After years of wishing for more contests with scores like 8-5 and 7-3, I have nothing but worries after seeing the Bruins actually play that kind of game.

Ok, on to the lazy-Friday linkage. For some reason, this week has been full of stuff that you just have to see to make your hockey life complete:

- Check out this indescribably bizarre "If X mated with X" experiment. Chris Soppel looks like someone you'd run into at a deserted rest stop in Alabama.

- Brodeur Is A Fraud produced this insightful and detailed analysis of Tim Thomas' season to date, with the thesis that he will come back to earth very soon. The next day he allowed 5 goals in 2 periods....

- Blueland Outsider links to one of the best hockey commercials I've seen all year. Too bad I had to get it from an amateur blog instead of a major TV network. Way to go, NHL Marketing Department.

- If you're going to tomorrow night's game, bring Stanley Cup of Chowder's "Whale Watch '08" scoring sheet. There has got to be a way to convert this to a drinking game.

I'll try to get a preview put together for tomorrow night's tilt against the Canes... but just in case I don't, here's a brief summary:

Bruins > Hurricanes

Bruins vs. Thrashers: Resisting A "Sloppy Seconds" Reference...

It was a crazy one last night, with the B's flattening Atlanta 7-3. Can't believe I passed up the opportunity to see this game, in favor of the 12/28 matchup. On the other hand, live games don't have a rewind/slow-motion option for replaying awesome goals and fights.

You've gotta give respect to struggling teams who put up a fight. The Thrashers lost primarily on the basis of awful goaltending; having played a decent first 5 minutes and still finding themselves down 2-0, everything just fell apart from there. Ondrej Pavelec was F-minus bad, Johan Hedberg (what happened to this guy?) looked on the verge of a mental breakdown, and the rest of the team was playing with a pretty large chip on its shoulder. Unlike certain other teams, the Thrashers didn't just fold up their tent and wander off into the night. They played hard and fought hard, and a lot of it felt like old-time hockey.

Hard to know what to expect tonight in Boston. If past blowouts against struggling Dallas and Tampa are any indication, the Thrashers will have an internal meltdown on the team plane and arrive with no desire to play hockey anymore (Hedberg certainly looked like he was heading in that direction). But from what I saw last night, I wouldn't be surprised to see them come out with their foot squarely on the gas -- they've scored 7 goals in 2 games against the Bruins' top-ranked defense, and with an early lead they might stand a chance of pulling off the upset.

Items of interest -- Milan Lucic picked up a Gordie Howe hat trick last night. In his previous game against Atlanta, he scored an actual hat trick. Are there any other kinds of hat trick he could score tonight... perhaps a natural one? Also, the Bruins were the first Eastern team (2nd overall, behind San Jose and beating Detroit by a matter of minutes) to score 100 goals this season.

Other news -- Aaron Ward played only a minute before deciding he wasn't in game condition just yet. After seeing a pretty poor outing from callup Matt Lashoff against the Caps, I'd kinda like to see Johnny Boychuk dress for this one. [update: Patrice Bergeron will take the night off with the flu, which throws a monkeywrench in the Bruins' lines. For one thing, it opens up Bergeron's spot on the PP, where he plays the point. Best guess is Mark Stuart gets a chance, after scoring twice last night. Also, this means that Stephane Yelle will move up to center the second line, and Martins Karsums will make his NHL debut as fourth-line center. Karsums will skate with Shawn Thornton and Vladimir Sobotka, who will replace Petteri Nokelainen, who injured his shoulder last night. Got all that?]

Manny Fernandez starts tonight. He had won 7 straight until losing to the Caps, and Tim Thomas allowed 3 goals to a mediocre offense. Guess why Timmy looked so pissed off after that last goal? Manny is in a great position to pick up a few consecutive starts if he plays well tonight.

You could probably make some money by running a betting pool around who will be starting for the Thrashers tonight. Do they start Pavelec, who gave up 4 goals on 5 shots, or Hedberg, who was the backup AND got pulled in the same game, and went off on his teammates in the process? (anyone else catch his "fucking stupid" directed at Boris Valabik, accidentaly picked up by the NESN mikes?)

The Habs got bad news, as they have been bitten hard by the injury bug. They have lost 2 of 3, have a tought week coming up, and are now 7 points back of the Bruins. But forget all that... check out this awesome blog post from Four Habs Fans.

Meanwhile the Rangers lost a crazy game to the Devils, coming back from 5-1 and still losing 8-5. That puts the Rangers a solid 4 points behind the Bruins, with 4 more games played. Right about now, we should be looking out the corner of our eyes at the Flyers and Pens instead of the slumping Rags. As I type, the Flyers lead the Pens 2-0.

Ok, so what'd I miss?

All my hardcore fans who check this site 6-10 times per day* have probably noticed that I've been away for a few days. I've had slightly bigger fish to fry this week, with the world's newest hockey fan entering the world:

"Fuck the Habs!"

Indeed, little guy. Indeed.

Unfortunately this caused me to miss some juicy blogging material. Here's a quick summary of the past week in the Bruinsphere:


Thursday, 11/13: As a sign to mankind that the most badass hockey fan is being born unto the world, the Bruins pound the ever-living crap out of the Habs. This cathartic moment was sponsored by Milan Lucic's right fist.

Saturday, 11/15: The Bruins play a nearly complete game against the first-place Rangers, but blow a two-goal lead in the final minute and succumb in the shootout. Nevertheless, getting a point in New York after 3 games in 4 days against some of the league's best competition was no small feat.

Monday, 11/17: In a somewhat ugly affair, the Leafs can't quite rally and the Bruins pick up another 'W' to extend their division lead to 4 points. The Leafs are no laughing matter this season, and that Grabovski guy scored again. He's going to be a real pain.


Scattered thoughts from the weekend:

- This season's All-Star voting process has become a huge embarrassment to the league. There are so many things wrong I don't know where to start. Even after HabGate put a question mark on the validity of the vote totals, we are still looking at 6 Canadiens with leads of more than 100,000 votes, roughly double the total of their nearest competitor. I'm with Cornelius Hardenbergh on this one -- I see no point in continuing to feed traffic to the voting website. The write-in campaign for Tim Thomas is effectively a lost cause from the get-go, meaning it is now impossible for him to appear in the game, and I can't shake the feeling that the whole situation is a slap in the face to the players who actually deserve the honor. This may be the first time in 15 years that I don't feel motivated to tune in.

- On a more positive note, Milan Lucic leads the league in hits. Yes, the entire league. His legend is already starting to trickle into mainstream coverage, which is nothing but great news for the sport of hockey. We can only hope that thousands of squirt players buy Lucic jerseys and try to knock each other out of the rink this winter. Lucic = hockey.

- Manny Fernandez has quitely played some stellar games this season, ringing up an impressive 4-1-1 record. More importantly, he and Thomas are all smiles and there has been zero scuttlebutt about Fernandez moping or complaining. After stopping 59 of 61 shots against Buffalo and Montreal, he deserves a few more cracks at that starting job.

- Guys who need to step it up: Chara, Ryder, Bergeron, Krejci.

- Guys who deserve a gold star for effort: Savard, Wideman, Thornton, Kobasew.

- The Habs game and the Stars game have shown us something very valuable about this Bruins squad, something we haven't seen in a long time: These guys won't be fucked with. They give nobody an undue level of respect. Claude Julien has them melded together in a way you'd expect from a junior team, not a bunch of mercenary professionals. This will be valuable in the playoffs, which are suddenly no longer a question. I'm not positive about the division lead, but these guys are not going to implode and disappear like we all imagined they might.

- Elsewhere in the division: Buffalo is fading after a hot start (think fast: am I talking about the Bills or Sabres?), Montreal is playing inconsistently but will be back, the Leafs are talentless but are nobody's doormat, and the Sens are on the verge of Implosion: The Sequel.

* estimate based on internal polling and delusions of grandeur.

Bruins vs. Blackhawks: Takeaways

Observations from last night's 2-1 SO victory in Chicago:

- It's ridiculous that these teams don't play more often. I understand and support the desire to play more divisional games, but the season is long -- O6 teams need to play at least one game a season in each 06 city. Bruins/Hawks could be the NHL's answer to Celtics/Lakers in five years... if they actually see each other.

- Both goalies played unbelievable games. Khabibulin deserved a win based on his play, especially the highway robbery of Marc Savard in OT. Tim Thomas continues to make a mockery of the All-Star ballot by somehow improving his mind-numbingly good stats. His save % is now approaching .950, for chrissake! Blackhawks fans: I will happily write-in Patrick Sharp for the WC if you will do me a favor and write-in Tim Thomas on the EC section of your vote. This man MUST play in the All-Star game.

- I almost wish I had skipped the first two periods, which were just brutal to watch. Maybe it was good road strategy by the Bruins (bore the crowd after an emotional pep rally/number retirement ceremony), but it made terrible TV. As predicted, the Bruins were dominated in the first period to the tune of an 18-6 shot count, but held out long enough to get back in it.

- Chicago's got a great young core of players and will be very, very good in a couple of years. I hope they don't screw it up by making silly trades to try and win immediately, because a Blackhawks powerhouse would be very good for the NHL. With the right goalie, and maybe 2-3 more years to develop some of the fresh-faced kids into experienced role players, the Hawks will be better than the Roenick/Chelios/Belfour teams of the early 90s.

- Normally Center Ice shows the NESN broadcast, but last night they chose the Comcast feed with Eddie O. calling the game. They had Brent Seabrook wired, and it struck me that he seemed like a bit of a twat, constantly telling forwards their defensive mistakes. Seabrook is 23 years old. But on further review, at age 23 Seabrook already has more NHL experience than 10 of the Blackhawks' 13 active forwards. Defenseman Brent Sopel is the only skater on the roster who has twice as much experience as Seabrook. And Seabrook's 23.

Other reviews:
Hub Hockey (Bruins)
The Bear Cave (Bruins)
Stanley Cup of Chowder (Bruins)
Ghost of Ed Litzenberger (Hawks)
Hockee Night (Hawks)

Anatomy of a First-Place Team

With last night's win over Buffalo, the Bruins are (at least temporarily) the banner team in the Northeast Division -- a tough feat, considering the division includes 3 of the Eastern Conference's top 4 teams. While it's still far too early to talk about being in first place in April, the division lead is a testament to the team's resilience in the face of a tough early schedule... and a sign that they are a force to be reckoned with as they play a favorable schedule in November.

What's behind the sudden success (6 wins in 7 games) of a team that many pundits predicted would miss the playoffs? It boils down to a few key factors tilting in Boston's favor:

Hot Goaltending - This is the #1 factor in the Bruins' current streak. In the past 7 games, Tim Thomas has allowed only 5 goals on 168 shots, and Manny Fernandez has won both of his starts by stopping 60 of 65. More importantly, both goaltenders have played their best at key moments, allowing only 4 third-period goals during the streak.

Breakout Games - Milan Lucic had scored only one goal entering the Oct 25th matchup against the Thrashers, when he broke out with a hat trick. Blake Wheeler doubled his scoring total with a hat trick against Toronto on Nov 6th. Marco Sturm scored twice against Dallas after scoring only once in 11 previous games. Last night, Chuck Kobasew tallied a goal and an assist after missing a month with injury. Though Savard is the only player consistently producing at a point-per-game level, it seems that each night brings a new breakout game from a different player.

Depth Players - One of the best-kept secrets in the Eastern Conference is the outstanding play of Boston's 4th line. Shawn Thornton, Stephane Yelle, and a revolving right wing (at times filled by Sobotka, Nokelainen, and Kobasew) consistently dominate their ice time with hard-nosed cycling in the corners. They only pot the occasional goal, but more importantly they sap the ability of opponents' top players to take advantage of their matchups -- an especially important advantage on the road.

Blueline Scoring - In the first 8 games of the season, Boston defensemen accounted for only 1 goal. Since then, they have scored 5. This hardly makes them a threatening bunch of goal scorers, but it's enough to create some extra room for Boston's forwards. Still, one goal from Zdeno Chara (a fluky, bouncing shot that surprised Toskala) is not enough -- look for defensemen scoring to increase as the season goes on.