Derek Morris through five games

As the Bruins close out their rare season-opening homestand with a meek 2-3 record, this week is sure to be rife with speculation and contrived finger-pointing. What better time to check in on that $3.3 million investment in Derek Morris... you know, the one that prevented the Kessel negotiations from getting off the ground...

Time on ice
Time on ice per game: 23:10, second behind Chara
PP time on ice per game: 5:06, second behind Savard
SH time on ice per game: 2:52, third behind Chara and Wideman

Clearly, Morris has had ample opportunity to make an impact on the ice. He has been paired mostly with Chara, arguably the best defensive partner in the league.

Offensive production
Goals: None.
Assists: 2. Both of Morris' assists were secondary, both were on the power play, and both were scored in the 7-2 rout of struggling Carolina.
Shots: 4. All shots came from a distance of at least 48 feet.

Defense
Hits: 7. This puts him in a tie for 129th leaguewide, along with guys like Saku Koivu and Alex Kovalev.
Plus/Minus: A team-worst -4. He's also -1 on special teams, though these numbers don't count in his official +/-.

Discipline
PIM: 8. Two minors and a double-minor. It was Morris' slashing penalty that led to Colorado's tie-breaking goal.
Giveaways: 3, tied for most on the team.
Takeaways: 1.

Salary
$3.3 million per season, in case you forgot.

Of course there are a lot of Bruins whose numbers look bad right now, but Morris has clearly not had a smooth landing in Boston. If he can't turn it around, this contract could end up being an albatross for Peter Chiarelli.

Bruins could trade for Kovalchuk

[ed: Within moments of posting this, I came across Joe Haggerty's article for WEEI, also asserting that the Bruins should pursue Kovalchuk before the trade deadline.]

Following on yesterday's post, let's look at some plausible scenarios in which the Bruins might be in a position to make a major trade this season.

Each of these would require Peter Chiarelli to make two "setup" moves:
1) Buy out the contract of Patrice Bergeron, reducing his cap hit to $1.5m.
2) Replace him as third-line center with a youngster, such as Sobotka or Hammill, or acquire a veteran in the range of $1m.
The overall effect would be to end up with a cap cushion of roughly $4m.

Given the above, any of the following could be offered at the trade deadline:

To ATL for Ilya Kovalchuk ($6.3m)
Chuck Kobasew ($2.3m) OR Michael Ryder ($4.0m)
AND first-round picks in 2010, 2011 and 2012

To COL for Milan Hedjuk ($3.9m)
Brad Marchand ($821k) OR Byron Bitz ($687k)
AND Toronto's first-round pick in 2010

To TBL for Martin St. Louis ($5.25m)
D Adam McQuaid OR D Jeff Penner
AND First-round picks in 2010 and 2011, possibly return Tampa's second-round pick in 2010

In any of these scenarios, Boston would come out of the deal with a fast, scoring winger for the top line. In return, they would give up quality players and prospects -- but without creating a weak spot in the active roster or in the upcoming drafts or in the prospect pipeline. The loss of Bergeron would be relatively easy to cover, considering Boston's depth at the center position, and an elite winger would more than compensate for the loss of Ryder or Kobasew.

Bottom line: If Chiarelli can clear a bit of cap space, he can easily compete for free-agents-to-be without cutting deeply into the prospect pool. Given that the Bruins are going to be a top contender for the Cup, it would be crazy for him not to position himself for a major trade this season.

Bruins preparing to go all-in for 2010?

For most of last season the Bruins led the league in both offense and defense, were in first place, and enjoyed career seasons from most of the roster. The only remaining expectation was playoff success, which was cut short in bitter fashion when they couldn't generate offense consistently against Carolina.

The Bruins addressed their most glaring need -- becoming more mobile on the blue line -- early in the summer. Their only other major roster change was the loss of Phil Kessel, their leading goal-scorer. On paper, an elite sniper is the only missing ingredient holding them back from a Cup run.

Let's do a little math in the wake of the Kessel trade:

a) In the 2010 entry draft, the Bruins will now have two first-round picks (one coming from Toronto) and three second-round picks (one each from Toronto and Tampa). In the 2011 entry draft, Boston will again have an extra selection in the first round, from Toronto.

b) Currently the Bruins have $1.7 million in space under the cap.

c) At the end of the 2010 season, the Bruins will need to renew or release the contracts of six unrestricted free agents, including Marc Savard (currently a $5m cap hit) and Derek Morris ($3.3m). At the same time, the team will need to renegotiate the contracts of restricted free agents Tuukka Rask ($3.2m), Blake Wheeler ($2.8m), Mark Stuart ($1.3m), Milan Lucic ($850k), Vladimir Sobotka ($750k), Drew Larman ($550k).

d) The only players on the team who are signed beyond 2011 are David Krejci and Tim Thomas.

e) Two division rivals, Toronto and Montreal, are making dramatic changes to their lineup with the goal of competing for the Northeast Division title. One team is getting much bigger, the other much smaller -- chances are, one of them is taking a good approach to closing the gap with Boston.


Add it all up and we get:

f) If there was ever a season for Peter Chiarelli to make a major trade, it's right now. The iron is red-hot and the opportunity will be over as soon as next summer's tough contract decisions begin.


Loaded with high draft picks and NHL-ready prospects destined to spend most of the winter in Providence, Chiarelli has both the leverage and the incentive to make a high-stakes gamble on the Bruins' Cup chances. All he needs now is an opportunity.

Next post: Talking specifics -- who could be acquired, what it would cost, and whether it would be enough to end the Cup drought.

Chiarelli's a real bastard, isn't he?

Can you tell Peter Chiarelli used to be an agent?


On trading Aaron Ward to Carolina: "Frankly, I wouldn’t have traded him anywhere else but Carolina because that’s where his home is."
Aaron Ward's take: "I’m a little shocked. Obviously it’s my home, so it’s not a bad place to get traded to. But it wasn’t expected. I thought I was actually going to finish out my career in Boston."

On trading Phil Kessel to Toronto: "This trade was really about two things. One is a player who did not want to play in Boston."
Phil Kessel's take: "I never one time asked to be traded."


Chiarelli is almost political in his ability to send messages through the media. Play nice with Chia, and he'll go on record talking about how much the organization owes you. Play hardball, and you're going to be dragged through the evening news as a mean-spirited prick who deserved a trade to Siberia.

Of course, it the message is directed not at the media and not at the fans. The intended recipient is the players: those who are in the organization already, and those whom he plans to court in the future.

Is the backup goalie "controversy" manufactured?

I'm having a hard time swallowing the media-driven storyline that Tuukka Rask has competition for the backup goalie position.

Yeah, the Bruins went out and signed Danny Sabourin as a third option in goal. But does anyone seriously think that Sabourin, who has played all of one preseason game in a Boston uniform after being ditched by the Pens, is going to take away Rask's opportunity to break into the NHL as a regular contributor?

So far, the Bruins organization has so far invested the following in Rask:
- Andrew Raycroft
- Manny Fernandez
- Three years of careful development
- $9.6 million in salary

Rask is now 22 and in a contract year. He has made the most of his NHL audition so far, shutting out the Rangers last season and holding them to one goal in his lone start this preseason. He has the opportunity to play behind a 35-year-old Vezina winner on a defending conference championship team. Bruins GM Peter Chiarelli has effectively cleared a path for him to the backup position by choosing not to even negotiate an extension for Fernandez.

The plan is obvious: Rask plays the next 2-3 seasons as a 30-game backup, and gradually begins to compete with Thomas for playing time. By the end of Thomas' contract in 2013, Rask should be the nightly starting goalie.

All of this adds up to an obvious truth: The backup job is Rask's alone this season. Only in dire circumstances will Sabourin have a shot at playing in Boston.

Let's try this again: How much can Kessel expect to make?

Earlier this week we speculated about what numbers might be involved in the Phil Kessel negotiations. At the time it seemed that Peter Chiarelli's only remaining task was to either sign Kessel, or deal him for a defenseman.

It seems Chiarelli had other things on his mind, thus the flurry of activity on Thursday and Friday. Things have actually become much clearer for Kessel, as the Bruins are now dealing with a definite salary cap number.

Assuming Chiarelli doesn't have any more surprises up his sleeve, here's where it stands for Kessel:

Bruins cap space - $1.3 million
Chuck Kobasew's cap hit - $2.3 million
Possible salary for Kessel - $3.6 million

There it is, Phil... take it or leave it. Contracts larger than Kobasew's are unmoveable, so trading Chuckie is Chiarelli's last and best hope for clearing some cap space to sign Kessel.

Last Wednesday's post pegged Kessel's market value at roughly $3.4 million, based on similar contracts and his lack of leverage in the negotiations. This should really be a very simple decision for him. End this stalemate early, spend the rest of the summer shopping for Porsches and look forward to another year of burying Marc Savard passes.

Tweeters get ahead of themselves; Bruins' wild day continues

What a strange day it's been. I'm setting a new record with 4 posts, because every time I log on there is something new to report.

The latest development is that the Bruins signed -- oops, ALMOST signed -- former Coyote/Ranger Derek Morris as reported (and then recanted) on Twitter by James Murphy. Here's the chuckle-worthy series of Tweets:

Bruins have signed Derek Morris. More details to come.

Regarding last tweet, I was just told by reliable source Bruins have signed Derek Morris. Trying to confirm.

Still trying to confirm. But it appears Derek Morris very likely could be a Bruin.

No confirmation yet but all signs pointing towards Morris to Bruins. There are other teams in on him, but sources tell me, Bruins got him.

Update on Derek Morris to Bruins: All we can say is that the Bruins and Morris are very close to a deal. No call back from agent. So "close"

WBZ reporting Morris' agent says Bruins one of several teams in mix, no Bruins announcement today. My sources still say Bruins the team

Mmm hmm... everyone got that? This is the sort of embarrassing thing that we are going to see more of in the age of New Media.

Even better are the bloggers who jumped on the story too early, vaguely citing "sources" that could "confirm" an event that didn't actually happen.

Jumpy Tweeters notwithstanding, the Morris signing appears to be a legit story. This means the Bruins have effectively swapped Aaron Ward for Morris, a 4th round pick, and a slight cap hit for 3 of the next 4 years.

Now for the latest head-scratcher: Morris carried a healthy $3.95 million cap hit last season. Granted, the contract was bloated and we are sure to see Morris take a pay cut... but it's hard to imagine him going much below Ward's salary level.

In other words, this "salary dump" was not actually a salary dump at all. It was, more or less, an even salary swap in which the Bruins got slightly younger, softer and more skillful on the blue line.

So after all that, still no progress in the Kessel stalemate.

I'm sure that Peter Chiarelli is either mad, or a genius. I hope that he's both.

Are you frickin' kidding me?

I barely had time to type that last post before Boston put Patrick Eaves on waivers with the intention of buying him out.

Let me get this straight.

Lacking depth on the blue line, we traded a veteran defenseman who was a leader in the locker room...

... for a near-worthless draft pick and an underachieving forward we didn't need...

... who we then put on waivers to either be scooped up elsewhere or bought out...

... so we will now carry another buyout hit in addition to those which caused this cap crunch to begin with.

And Chiarelli couldn't find a better deal elsewhere? What would be wrong with simply trading Ward straight-up for a draft pick? Why take on a useless cap hit in the process of a salary dump???

Deep in my brain there's a rational explanation slowly forming around the idea of re-signing Kessel or moving him to a team that could give us a two-fer. But that idea simply doesn't align with the sheer stupidity of taking on a contract which will be nothing but an empty cap hit for the next several years. It's like eating a whole carrot cake as part of your diet, because carrots are healthy.

Of course, Kessel is worth this painful trade. If he scores 40 this year, Chiarelli will be hailed as a genius. But it's hard to understand how this is the best deal available for a team already struggling with a serious cap crunch... and needing every bit of breathing room for Savard, Lucic and Wheeler next summer.

Ward traded to Canes: First Reactions

Carolina gets: D Aaron Ward, his $2.5m price tag, and a lotta splainin' to do about trashing his personal character only a few months ago.

Boston gets: F Patrick Eaves, his $1.4m price tag, a 2010 4th-rounder, and the ability to re-sign Phil Kessel.


My immediate reaction: Frankly, Eaves is garbage. His "career year" was a 20-goal season on a supercharged Ottawa team, and everything since then has been measured in single digits. Except, of course, for his "games missed with injury" numbers. Fragile + low-scoring + paid more than $1m = waste of space.

The 2010 pick is also a throwaway. Carolina is a top-6 team for sure this year, and might even challenge Washington for the division if they get hot. That means the pick will come in the part of the draft where guys like Cam Janssen and Kevin Bieksa are considered a steal.

This trade is all about Phil Kessel. Boston saves $1.1m on the cap, presumably enough to come to terms with Kessel and ensure they get their top goal scorer back in the fold. Chiarelli is taking two gambles:

1) Ward won't be missed as much as we think, because Johnny Boychuk is ready for the Big Show. I'll believe that when I see it.
2) Eaves is really a solid Sturm-esque player who's had some hard luck, but is ready to break into his own. I'm not sure that I'd believe it even if I saw it.

Kudos to Canes Country for predicting this trade days in advance. I trashed it at the time, and I will continue to trash it because the Canes essentially stole an asset for almost no return. The onus is now on Kessel to provide big returns on the investment, because this trade hurts Boston in the locker room even more than on the ice.

One last thought... it's hard not to notice that the Bruins are spending $1.8m of cap space on buyouts this year. Ward is essentially a victim of the Murray and Schaefer contracts.

How much is Kessel really worth?

While we wait for this impasse to clear, there are only two variables left in play:

1) How much does Kessel think he's worth?
2) Can the Bruins achieve that number by dumping salary to other teams?

I'll leave Eklund to work on that second item, but #1 is something worth thinking about.

Let's take a look at the historical precedent. Kessel is 21 and coming off a 36-goal campaign -- an unusual scenario for any team trying to construct a market-value offer. In fact, I could only find five similar cases in recent history:

Marian Hossa, 2001: He rang up 32 goals for Ottawa, but was unable to come to terms when his rookie contract expired. Hossa sat out until two weeks into the season, signing a 3-year deal worth $2.8 million per. After three more seasons of similar production, he signed with the Thrashers at $5m/yr and has been a mercenary ever since.

Simon Gagne, 2002: Gagne led the Flyers with 33 goals, and signed a two-year contract the following summer for $2.35m per. He continued to climb the scoring list and landed a $5.25m/yr deal several years later. Nagging injuries that began in his early 20s have blossomed to siderail his career, though he can still hold his own.

Dany Heatley, 2003: This is, of course, an unusal story. Heatley was one of the league's brightest stars when he scored 41 goals in his second season, and under the right circumstances would have turned out quite differently. However, his personal life and the lockout got in the way and he ended up being traded to Ottawa. His post-lockout salary was in the $4.5m/yr range, but that was two years removed from his breakout season.

Alex Semin, 2007: Another odd story, which involved the Capitals suing Semin's agent for breach of contract when he split for Russia after his rookie season. When he returned, the 23-year-old scored 38 goals and was rewarded with a 2-year contract at $4.6m per. He'll be looking to hit the jackpot after this season as an RFA.

Thomas Vanek, 2007: This is the nightmare scenario. Vanek was 5th in scoring during the final year of his rookie contract, and everything seemed on track until the Oilers signed him to an absurd 7-year, $50m ($7.14m/per) offer sheet. In the wake of other free agent departures, Sabres management had little choice but to absorb this monstrosity of a contract.

So, the historical record shows a little bit of everything: from the "prove it" contract (Gagne) to a regrettable trade (Heatley) to a cap-crushing offer sheet (Vanek). Oddly, the post-cap contracts seem to be less restrained than those which occurred in a free market.

Of the five, Kessel's situation is most similar to Gagne's. He's playing on a Cup-contending, big-market team alongside one of the best setup men in the league. He's got a media-friendly personal history. If he should stay in Boston, he'll be one of the top names in this year's Winter Classic. The table is set for him to have a huge season, one in which his value could eventually elevate into the $5-6m range or higher. But that is contingent upon his health and his production, and the "if" factor is a bit too much for him to score that kind of deal right away.

Using the examples of Gagne and Hossa, it would be reasonable for the Bruins to offer a 2-year deal with a $3m annual cap hit. However, Kessel's agent will likely start the discussion with David Krejci's recent $3.75m extension. Taking the average, we arrive at $6.8 million over 2 years, with a cap hit of $3.4m per. Given Kessel's lack of leverage, and the likelihood of a big payday down the road, he'd be wise to take that offer.

In order to arrive at this number, the Bruins will be required to move one or more of the following: Chuck Kobasew, Andrew Ference, Mark Stuart.

Breaking news: Hunwick signs for 2 years

Boston.com just reported that Matt Hunwick has signed a 2-year deal with Boston to avoid arbitration. Not much detail readily available, but I'm going to throw out a few educated guesses:

1) Hunwick's agent advised him to take a last-chance deal before going to arbitration, meaning he probably settled in the range of $1.6-1.75m/yr. I don't see him settling for less, but I don't see him getting any more on Friday so this was probably the best deal for all concerned. [ed: The Bruins made out better than I expected -- Hunwick's deal will average $1.45m/yr. This is a great deal for the Bruins, who can use every quarter-mil they can squeeze under the cap.]

2) This means that if Hunwick's career continues to arc upward, he will be in for an enormous payday in two years. The Bruins will have to make some very difficult decisions if that happens.

3) Expect movement on Phil Kessel in the near future. Hunwick was the only other question-mark on the 2010 roster, so Peter Chiarelli is now dealing with an absolute cap number.

Until today, I'd imagine that the dialogue between Chiarelli and Kessel was nothing but posturing. Now there's no point in kidding each other -- either Boston can afford to retain him or they can't. Chiarelli simply needs to know how much Kessel is willing to play for, and whether that number can be achieved by moving a player or two to another team.

If I'm right about Hunwick's new cap hit, my back-of-a-napkin tally has the Bruins at $54.6 million committed to this season, with a $56.8 million cap ceiling. Kessel will likely not sign any contract for less than $4m per season, and it's pretty clear that he wants to shoot for $5m if possible.

My expectation: within the next two weeks Chiarelli will find a taker for Chuck Kobasew, moving $2.3m off the roster. He'll offer Kessel $4.3m for 2 years, leaving just the slightest bit of space under the cap ceiling. And then we'll start talking about next season's cap crisis.

Bruins' draft forecasts future moves

You had to love the look on Peter Chiarelli's face when he stepped up to the podium at the Bell Centre. While he played nice with the hostile crowd, one couldn't help but notice the little sideways smirk that kept crossing his face, particularly when he noted how happy he was to be back in Montreal.

It's been a hospitable barn, to say the least. The Bruins' playoff sweep of the Habs earned Chiarelli a multi-year contract extension. He stood at the draft podium as a man fully in charge of his franchise for the first time -- a man about to take his first step into a greater degree of control over the Bruins' future.

But then he did something strange. He drafted a center, Jordan Caron, bypassing a number of more highly touted players who seem better suited to the Bruins' needs.

This complicates a logjam of talent at the center position throughout the Bruins' system. It also promises that we'll see more action from Chiarelli this summer, as he will have little choice but to swap some of these young centermen in order to fill other organizational needs.

But perhaps there was a subtext to this pick: Phil Kessel is 21 and plays both center and right wing. Caron is 18 and plays both center and right wing. With Kessel embroiled in a contract dispute that might see him shipped to another team, Chiarelli has sent a clear message to the other side of the table that the Bruins will survive either way.

Regardless of the outcome of Kessel's negotiations, the Bruins have too many centermen and too few roster spots to go around. Expect to see Chiarelli move a prospect (or three) in order to acquire depth at defense and the wing positions.

Here's a rundown of the organization's options at center:

Marc Savard eats a burrito.

Locks to remain in Boston

• David Krejci - No Bruin has more job security than this kid.
• Patrice Bergeron - His $4.7m contract is an albatross, so movement is unlikely.
• Marc Savard - He's a free agent next year, and could be an eventual cap casualty.

(That leaves one NHL roster spot to be shared by the rest of the organization.)

Questionable in 2009-10

• Stephane Yelle - Fantastic value for veteran depth, but Yelle is going to be squeezed out eventually by young talent.
• Vladimir Sobotka - Time to fish or cut bait with this prospect. He is ready to be a full-time NHL player, either in this organization or another. His fate is tied to Yelle's.
• Phil Kessel - Don't forget, he's officially listed as a center. In a 5 year outlook, he could replace Savard on the first line... if he's still on the team.
  

Long term prospects

• Joe Colborne - Last year's 16th overall pick will spend this year as a college sophomore. Look for him to crack the roster as a full-time player in 2012.
• Brad Marchand - He could be the next Krejci or the next Sobotka, depending on how much he grows in Providence. Expect him to see NHL ice this season.
• Zach Hamill - The 8th overall pick in 2007, he would be a tempting trade asset.
• Jordan Caron - Yet another first-round pick. Is he the most likely to be dealt?
• Maxime Sauve - Will be under the radar for a while, but word is he has a lot of upside.

Trade bait

• Martin St. Pierre - Little reason to believe he will ever stick in Boston. Could be valuable to a rebuilding team.
• Carl Soderberg - An X-factor who has not yet played in North America. At 23, it's time for Chiarelli to make a decision on him.
• Jamie Arniel - Persistent questions about his character have put a damper on his early hype.
• Mark Goggin - Only 19, he'll head to Dartmouth this season.
• Nicholas Tremblay - Only a sophomore in college, but not impressing.
  

Levi Nelson, left, poses with Brad Marchand, a real-life hockey player.

Career AHL'ers

• Brock Bradford - Not a chance he makes it to the Big Show in this system.
• Levi Nelson - An underwhelming debut in Providence suggests he won't make it farther.
• Ben Sexton - No reason to draft him except to do a favor to Randy Sexton.

Bruins get Krecji for 3 more years

Boston.com is breaking the news that the Bruins have extended third-year center David Krejci to a 3-year contract, with a cap hit of $3.75m per year.

Krejci will get a chance to defend his Seventh Player trophy.

This resolves the first half of the Bruins' biggest offseason question -- how to squeeze both Krecji and winger Phil Kessel under the cap without doing damage to the rest of the roster.



Considering Krecji is, in GM Peter Chiarelli's words, "at very least a number-two center", this deal could hardly have worked out any better for the Bruins. By comparison, Patrice Bergeron carries a $4.75m cap hit with similar expectations. The only issue to be resolved is whether David's offseason hip surgery will have a long term impact on his game. Otherwise, the team just locked up a very solid contributor at a very reasonable price.



By the way... happy 200th blog entry!

Julien, Chiarelli win Sporting News awards

Maybe not as exciting as an Adams trophy (or a conference final berth, for that matter), but the Bruins' front office has something to celebrate thanks to the Sporting News.

Claude Julien was named Coach of the Year. I was shocked to discover that the previous three winners -- Lindy Ruff, Barry Trotz, and Mike Babcock -- have managed to hold onto their jobs since winning the title. In an NHL where both Eastern Conference finalists fired their coaches mid-season, that's a strong endorsement.

Also, Peter Chiarelli picked up the Executive of the Year title. Hopefully he'll do a better job of defending it than previous winners Bob Gainey and David Poile, both of whom enjoyed a very short moment in the sun.

Steve Mason won Rookie of the Year, giving him an opportunity to practice his Calder acceptance speech.

Here Come The Vultures! Chiarelli getting heat for management decisions

Well, it's been almost half a week since the Bruins punched Carolina's ticket to the Final Four. In Boston Bruins fandom, that's plenty long enough to forget about the magical joyride of a #1 seed and sweep over the Habs -- time for some drawn-out 20/20-hindsight analysis of management decisions!

Deadline Blunder?

WEEI's Joe Haggerty (Big Bad Blog) rips Chiarelli for his biggest "mis-step" at the trade deadline -- trading for Ducks defenseman Steve Montador. The premise of the article is that there were numerous other defensemen available, Montador was... well, the shittiest one left.

(I should take a moment to air my biases. In my humble opinion, Montador was the worst player on the Bruins' playoff roster. He never came close to fulfilling his limited promise as a deadline acquisition. In fact, he was f.r.e.a.k.i.n.g t.e.r.r.i.b.l.e, to the point that he became difficult to tolerate. Offensively he's a turnover machine with an unintimidating shot, yet he still plays aggressively at inappropriate moments. Defensively he's advertised as "rugged", but has nowhere near the physical presence of a Wideman or Ward... or even a Ference.)

Still, there's little merit to Haggerty's argument that the Bruins should have shot the moon for an elite defenseman. After all, Montador was brought in to provide a little third-pairing depth -- nobody expected he would end up being a top-4 player and manning the point on the power play in a Game 7 playoff scenario.

Haggerty's idea of a "better" trade would have been something like the Pahlsson-Wisniewski deal that helped put both the Ducks and Blackhawks into Cup contention. But he fails to recognize that the Bruins weren't shopping anyone nearly as valuable as Pahlsson. In the end, they merely lost Petterri Nokelainen, a borderline depth forward who was obsolete the moment Byron Bitz pulled on a Boston sweater. Even offering a package of draft picks would be questionabe asset management for an organization one season removed from April elimination.

Avoiding the "impulse buy"

The true heart of the matter is in this argument:

The Bruins GM said several times during the year that the ”window” can sometimes be a narrow one for an NHL team with legitimate Stanley Cup aspirations. The “window” way of thinking is a byproduct of the NHL salary cap. A team can change drastically from year-to-year given the financial situation of any particular team.

It’s also the best reason why Boston’s braintrust should have gone for broke this year.

This sort of thinking drives me crazy, because it's based entirely on impatience rather than strategic planning. Consider the teams which are still in Cup contention this season -- how many of them are operating as if on a one-year "window" to win a Cup?

• Detroit has strung together 15 dynastic seasons by refusing to trade futures for rentals. They do their shopping in the offseason, when real bargains arise.
• Carolina didn't panic during their post-Cup dropoff and have returned to the semifinals without moving any of their elite players.
• Chicago is the Western equivalent to the Bruins, building chemistry between young core players with long-term contention in mind.
• Only Pittsburgh has tried, and failed, to accelerate the process through trades. We saw how that worked out when Hossa signed with the Wings.

Even though Boston could have used a stronger counterattack against the Carolina forecheck, perennial Cup winners are built on Draft Day, not Deadline Day. Chiarelli's body of work happens mostly in the quiet summer months, when veterans renegotiate their contracts and prospects commit to working their way through a competitive farm system.

None of the other deadline-deal blueliners made the difference for their teams when the chips were down, and there's no reason to expect things would have turned out differently for the Bruins.

Bruins Cap Crunch Pt 2: Bergeron's Days Are Numbered

Since last Friday, when Part 1 of this article was written, we've learned of key details in the Tim Thomas contract:


The contract is a 4-year deal worth $20 million -- more time and money than had been previously reported in the press. Despite the fact that Thomas signed the contract before his 35th birthday, the league will consider him "age 35" at the time of signing. Therefore his cap number cannot change; buying him out will have no effect, a wrinkle that Peter Chiarelli appears to have miscalculated. Oh yeah, there's a no-movement clause in the first 3 years of Thomas' contract. The $5 million cap hit is written in stone.



Good News

As pointed out at Bobby Orr's Bastard, the cap hits for Tuukka Rask and Blake Wheeler will be greatly reduced next season. In a nutshell, the terms of the new CBA will be in effect and players currently on entry-level contracts (including Rask and Wheeler) will have a maximum cap hit of $875,000. This will save the Bruins about $4 million if both players are on the active roster.


Pink Slips


At this point it's clear that the Bruins will have to move some salaries in the offseason. The question is -- who stays and who goes?

For now, we can generally guess that the team will move forward with a Thomas/Rask tandem in net. It's given that Manny Fernandez and his $4.3 million cap hit will be long gone by training camp. Compared to this season's cap numbers, that makes the goaltending position more or less a wash. All things considered, it's also unlikely that the blueliners' combined cap hit will be much different from one season to the next (unless Matt Hunwick hits the jackpot).

That brings us to the forwards.


PJ Axelsson will surely not be brought back at $1.85 million; it's up to him and his agent whether they want to re-sign for significantly less. If not, Axelsson could be replaced by Vladimir Sobotka for only $750k. The net balance of this situation should be a $1m advantage for Boston.


After that, the decisions start to get tougher. Cap casualties could include Chuck Kobasew ($2.3m), Marco Sturm ($3.5m) or Michael Ryder ($4m), though all of these would come at a significant cost to the team's forward depth. Of course, they would also need to be replaced by a bargain-basement player, leaving the Bruins shallower and damaging their chemistry.


A more emotionally-charged option would be to trade Patrice Bergeron. At $4.7 million, Bergeron made roughly the same salary this season as Saku Koivu, Alex Semin and Eric Staal. With all due respect to Bergeron's brave battle against concussion problems, he's being paid too much to score only 7 goals and to be one of only three regular forwards without a + rating.


The cost of keeping Bergeron would be more than meets the eye. Not only would it affect contract negotiations for the team's younger players (Kessel, Lucic and Krecji), but it would threaten the Bruins' chances of re-signing Marc Savard in two years. It's only speculation at this stage, but this pundit would be shocked to see Bergeron in a Bruins uniform at training camp.

How do they do it?

Only two teams in the league have managed to navigate these issues year-after-year, without seeing a significant downturn in the quality of their roster. Detroit and New Jersey have seen potential dynasties crumble in Tampa, Pittsburgh, Boston, Anaheim, Dallas and Colorado... and they keep plugging along, winning division titles and staying in the Cup race despite significant roster turnover. There are lessons to be learned from them:

1) Drafting, developing and trading new players is key to suriving turnover. Trading Petteri Nokelainen and Matt Lashoff in return for veterans made sense for this season's playoff run -- but the cost to the organization's depth is not insignificant.

2) If at all possible, it's vital to work "hometown discounts" into new contracts. Clearly this was not the case with Thomas, but Chiarelli needs to convince players like Kessel and Wheeler that playing for the Bruins is worth a slight pay cut. The Red Wings have been masterful at this game.

3) Today's hero is tomorrow's goat. The biggest risk in the Thomas extension is that he'll turn out to be the next Byron Dafoe. Signing players to long-term, high-dollar contracts is not an advisable approach to franchise-building.


So the Bruins' approach should boil down to a few simple principles:


- Ditch players like Bergeron and Axelsson who are not playing to their pay level. If possible, trade them for picks or prospects who will restock Providence when the P-Bruins are called up.

- Lock up cornerstone players like Lucic and Krejci to short, incentive-laden contracts that will keep them in Boston without removing accountability.

- Exploit Thomas' contract by working Rask into the lineup a few games at a time. He has a minimum of 3 seasons to work on his game behind a possible Vezina winner.

And pray that the cap doesn't shrink too much.

The Bruins' Slowly-Developing Cap Crunch

First, let's take a moment to revel in some good news:

- The Bruins won their 50th game of the season for the first time since 1993.

- The magic number for clinching the Eastern Conference is now 1.

- For the next 3 years (potentially), we'll have a goaltending duo of Thomas/Rask. A Vezina-potential veteran and a Calder-potential rookie on the same team? Good grief.

Now, the unsettling part. Boston.com reports that the Bruins signed Thomas to a 3-year, $5.2 million deal. While this might not even break the top 10 in goalie salaries next year, it is still Brodeur money and puts the team in a difficult cap situation moving forward.

Getting too close to the ceiling

The root of the problem is that the Bruins are a bit too young for their own good -- six key players under 25 (Kessel, Krejci, Lucic, Hunwick and Stuart) are up for contract renewal in the next two years and all but Stuart will be looking for a significant raise. But the Bruins are already squeezed against the cap ceiling, so extending these players' contracts will involve trimming salary in other parts of the roster. This is where a team can go from elite to mediocre in a hurry.

Next season GM Peter Chiarelli will need to re-sign Kessel, Krejci and Hunwick as restricted free agents (meaning they are free to entertain offers from other teams, but the Bruins will have the right to match). Their current salaries combine for a $3.8m cap hit; after renewal that number will likely be closer to $9m.

Trimming fat

There is a bit of relief on the horizon -- Glen Murray's $1.4m buyout could expire this summer, giving Boston extra breathing room [edit: Murray's cap hit is in the appeals process. If he wins, the $1.4m comes off the books; if the Bruins win, it remains until the end of next season. Perverse, isn't it? Thanks to the Bastahd for pointing this out]. Also, veteran Shane Hnidy will presumably be replaced by AHL standout Johnny Boychuck, a net cap relief of $250k. It's a safe bet that P.J. Axelsson will not be renewed at $1.8m, but there's no clear answer as to who will take his place (the Bruins could save about $1m if they can find a bargain). Also, Manny Fernandez is clearly done in the organization so his $4.3m will be a major relief. Altogether, Chiarelli will be working with between $5.5m and $6.9m.

$5-7 million in cap space... roughly $5 million in new salary. You can see the problem developing.

But wait... there's more!

As if this weren't already a fairly distressing situation, a similar crunch will develop in summer 2010. Lucic will be seeking a dramatic upgrade from his current $850k; it's hard to imagine the Bruins retaining him for less than Michael Ryder's $4m.

Then there's Blake Wheeler, who is currently making $2.8m and is eligible for arbitration if the team can't come to terms. Given his outstanding rookie campaign, it's also quite possible he will be making something like $4m in his new contract. Don't forget Stuart, who will likely hold steady at $1.3m, and Marc Savard will hit the free agent market at the completion of his $5m deal.

Oh yeah... and that's the summer that Rask will be ready to ask for a starting-goalie salary.

Sounds a little bleak, doesn't it? There are options on the table for Boston to keep the ship steady through all these changes, but none of them will be easy to swallow. Chiarelli is going to be faced with some tough decisions; check back tomorrow for details.

Bruins vs. Devils: Stuff To Look Out For

Another awesome matchup of Cup contenders who are red-hot and getting healthier. New Jersey has won 7 straight and are hardly missing Martin Brodeur. Boston is 6-1-1 lately and returning several key players from injury. They're #1 and #3 in the conference, so expect a tightly-played classic tonight.

Running The Gauntlet: Back in October, one little section of the schedule stuck out so much that I called it "The Gauntlet" in the season preview. We are now entering that beastly stretch, which I characterized in terms of the February road trip but actually began on Tuesday against Washington. Here's our schedule for the next three weeks, with opponents' records and conference rankings:

1/27 - Washington 30-15-4, #2 (win)
1/29 - New Jersey 30-15-3, #3
1/31 - Rangers 29-17-4, #4
2/1 - @ Montreal 27-14-6, #5
2/4 - @ Philadelphia 25-13-9, #6 (yes, we are playing the entire top 6 in order)
2/5 - @ Ottawa 16-22-7, #13
2/7 - Philadelphia 25-13-9, #6
2/10 - San Jose 35-6-5, #1 in West
2/13 - @ New Jersey 30-15-3, #3
2/14 - @ Nashville 21-23-3, #14 in West
2/17 - @ Carolina 23-21-5, #10
2/21 - @ Florida 22-17-8, #8
2/22 - @ Tampa Bay 17-21-10, #11

Those last few games wouldn't be so bad, except that they're all road games and 4 out of 5 involve back-to-back nights in different cities. An 8-5 record would be outstanding during this stretch, and would pretty much clinch the #1 seed.

Kessel Cleared: You read it right, Phil Kessel is back after less than three weeks' absence with mono. The only major question-mark for tonight's game will be Michael Ryder, who is practicing with the team after coming down with the flu last week. [update: Ryder will be returning to the lineup tonight, meaning the roster is as complete as it's likely to get until next season.]

Expected Starters: At the beginning of the season, would have you guessed that a January 29 matchup between Tim Thomas and Scott Clemmensen would have been characterized as a "goalie showdown and possible Eastern Finals preview"? Thomas continues to maintain a Vezina-like level of play, but Clemmensen has been even hotter (winning 5 straight, allowing only 5 goals in the past 4 games) and has carried the Devils in the absence of the Living Legend. Last time around, it was a 1-0 decision -- don't be surprised if fewer than 3 goals are scored in this game, even with a rejuvenated Bruins offense.

[update: Looks like Manny Fernandez's "general soreness" is indeed a reoccurrence of the back spasms that cost him a few games earlier this month. Euphemistic language aside, general soreness in the back is not a minor injury for a pro goaltender.]

Chia Pet: God, did I really just make that pun? Anyway... KPD reports that Bruins GM Peter Chiarelli has earned himself a contract extension, which is now being sorted out with management. Most of Chiarelli's decisions have been solid and he's shown a clear sense of how to build a team over time -- let's hope for at least a 3-year deal.

What Does This Game Mean For Boston?: To put it plainly, time is on our side. There are only 32 games left in the season, and we lead the rest of the conference by 11 points. The Devils are one of two teams (the other being the Caps) who have a realistic shot of catching up, and it's a longshot indeed. If Boston wins this game in regulation, they are 14 points ahead of New Jersey with 31 games left and the head-to-head tiebreaker. That is, more or less, a death-blow to the Devils' chance of stealing the #1 seed. Also, this is a good measuring-stick game against a team we're very likely to see in the playoffs.

What Does This Game Mean For New Jersey?: A lot more than it does for Boston. The Devils are locked in a tooth-and-nail struggle for the Atlantic Division crown, holding marginal leads over the Rangers and Flyers with games-in-hand being an issue for both. A win would catapault the Devils into the #2 seed, but a loss could potentially drop them to #5 by the weekend. That's the difference between a home-ice series against the Sabres, and a road-ice series against Montreal.

Who To Watch: Kessel, to see if he's got his step back. Both goalies, who will probably have phenomenal games. Patrice Bergeron, who is making it look very easy to return from a concussion. Zach Parise, who is fast becoming a star power forward. Jamie Langenbrunner, who had a huge game against the Sens on Tuesday and carries a hot stick. Brendan Shanahan, because you'll miss him when he's gone.

Other Previews:
Kynch's Bruins Korner - Good thing he's not a Kings fan... I'm just sayin'...
The Bear Cave - Picks up on the Jay Leach connection.
Stanley Cup of Chowder - Noke is "questionable" with a mysterious injury. If it's mono... well, that would be gross.
The Bruins Report - Did we mention that Kessel's back?