Bruins could trade for Kovalchuk

[ed: Within moments of posting this, I came across Joe Haggerty's article for WEEI, also asserting that the Bruins should pursue Kovalchuk before the trade deadline.]

Following on yesterday's post, let's look at some plausible scenarios in which the Bruins might be in a position to make a major trade this season.

Each of these would require Peter Chiarelli to make two "setup" moves:
1) Buy out the contract of Patrice Bergeron, reducing his cap hit to $1.5m.
2) Replace him as third-line center with a youngster, such as Sobotka or Hammill, or acquire a veteran in the range of $1m.
The overall effect would be to end up with a cap cushion of roughly $4m.

Given the above, any of the following could be offered at the trade deadline:

To ATL for Ilya Kovalchuk ($6.3m)
Chuck Kobasew ($2.3m) OR Michael Ryder ($4.0m)
AND first-round picks in 2010, 2011 and 2012

To COL for Milan Hedjuk ($3.9m)
Brad Marchand ($821k) OR Byron Bitz ($687k)
AND Toronto's first-round pick in 2010

To TBL for Martin St. Louis ($5.25m)
D Adam McQuaid OR D Jeff Penner
AND First-round picks in 2010 and 2011, possibly return Tampa's second-round pick in 2010

In any of these scenarios, Boston would come out of the deal with a fast, scoring winger for the top line. In return, they would give up quality players and prospects -- but without creating a weak spot in the active roster or in the upcoming drafts or in the prospect pipeline. The loss of Bergeron would be relatively easy to cover, considering Boston's depth at the center position, and an elite winger would more than compensate for the loss of Ryder or Kobasew.

Bottom line: If Chiarelli can clear a bit of cap space, he can easily compete for free-agents-to-be without cutting deeply into the prospect pool. Given that the Bruins are going to be a top contender for the Cup, it would be crazy for him not to position himself for a major trade this season.

Bruins preparing to go all-in for 2010?

For most of last season the Bruins led the league in both offense and defense, were in first place, and enjoyed career seasons from most of the roster. The only remaining expectation was playoff success, which was cut short in bitter fashion when they couldn't generate offense consistently against Carolina.

The Bruins addressed their most glaring need -- becoming more mobile on the blue line -- early in the summer. Their only other major roster change was the loss of Phil Kessel, their leading goal-scorer. On paper, an elite sniper is the only missing ingredient holding them back from a Cup run.

Let's do a little math in the wake of the Kessel trade:

a) In the 2010 entry draft, the Bruins will now have two first-round picks (one coming from Toronto) and three second-round picks (one each from Toronto and Tampa). In the 2011 entry draft, Boston will again have an extra selection in the first round, from Toronto.

b) Currently the Bruins have $1.7 million in space under the cap.

c) At the end of the 2010 season, the Bruins will need to renew or release the contracts of six unrestricted free agents, including Marc Savard (currently a $5m cap hit) and Derek Morris ($3.3m). At the same time, the team will need to renegotiate the contracts of restricted free agents Tuukka Rask ($3.2m), Blake Wheeler ($2.8m), Mark Stuart ($1.3m), Milan Lucic ($850k), Vladimir Sobotka ($750k), Drew Larman ($550k).

d) The only players on the team who are signed beyond 2011 are David Krejci and Tim Thomas.

e) Two division rivals, Toronto and Montreal, are making dramatic changes to their lineup with the goal of competing for the Northeast Division title. One team is getting much bigger, the other much smaller -- chances are, one of them is taking a good approach to closing the gap with Boston.


Add it all up and we get:

f) If there was ever a season for Peter Chiarelli to make a major trade, it's right now. The iron is red-hot and the opportunity will be over as soon as next summer's tough contract decisions begin.


Loaded with high draft picks and NHL-ready prospects destined to spend most of the winter in Providence, Chiarelli has both the leverage and the incentive to make a high-stakes gamble on the Bruins' Cup chances. All he needs now is an opportunity.

Next post: Talking specifics -- who could be acquired, what it would cost, and whether it would be enough to end the Cup drought.

Let's try this again: How much can Kessel expect to make?

Earlier this week we speculated about what numbers might be involved in the Phil Kessel negotiations. At the time it seemed that Peter Chiarelli's only remaining task was to either sign Kessel, or deal him for a defenseman.

It seems Chiarelli had other things on his mind, thus the flurry of activity on Thursday and Friday. Things have actually become much clearer for Kessel, as the Bruins are now dealing with a definite salary cap number.

Assuming Chiarelli doesn't have any more surprises up his sleeve, here's where it stands for Kessel:

Bruins cap space - $1.3 million
Chuck Kobasew's cap hit - $2.3 million
Possible salary for Kessel - $3.6 million

There it is, Phil... take it or leave it. Contracts larger than Kobasew's are unmoveable, so trading Chuckie is Chiarelli's last and best hope for clearing some cap space to sign Kessel.

Last Wednesday's post pegged Kessel's market value at roughly $3.4 million, based on similar contracts and his lack of leverage in the negotiations. This should really be a very simple decision for him. End this stalemate early, spend the rest of the summer shopping for Porsches and look forward to another year of burying Marc Savard passes.

HCTB 1, Mainstream Media 0

Ok, I can't technically take credit for a "scoop" on this, because I'm not one of those fancy-pants professional journalists with their credentials and sources and legitimacy, but it looks like I at least made a really good guess on the possibility of Sergei Zubov coming to Boston. Zubov's agent reports, via SI's Allan Muir, that the Bruins have indeed shown interest in him.

The common critique of this possibility is that the B's could never fit Zubov under the cap, to which I rebut -- let's wait and see what happens with Phil Kessel. If they decide to move Kessel, they might include a cap-heavy forward in the deal. Hmmm, Kobasew ($2.3m) seems about right, and with Mark Recchi at RW this season...

Bruins' draft forecasts future moves

You had to love the look on Peter Chiarelli's face when he stepped up to the podium at the Bell Centre. While he played nice with the hostile crowd, one couldn't help but notice the little sideways smirk that kept crossing his face, particularly when he noted how happy he was to be back in Montreal.

It's been a hospitable barn, to say the least. The Bruins' playoff sweep of the Habs earned Chiarelli a multi-year contract extension. He stood at the draft podium as a man fully in charge of his franchise for the first time -- a man about to take his first step into a greater degree of control over the Bruins' future.

But then he did something strange. He drafted a center, Jordan Caron, bypassing a number of more highly touted players who seem better suited to the Bruins' needs.

This complicates a logjam of talent at the center position throughout the Bruins' system. It also promises that we'll see more action from Chiarelli this summer, as he will have little choice but to swap some of these young centermen in order to fill other organizational needs.

But perhaps there was a subtext to this pick: Phil Kessel is 21 and plays both center and right wing. Caron is 18 and plays both center and right wing. With Kessel embroiled in a contract dispute that might see him shipped to another team, Chiarelli has sent a clear message to the other side of the table that the Bruins will survive either way.

Regardless of the outcome of Kessel's negotiations, the Bruins have too many centermen and too few roster spots to go around. Expect to see Chiarelli move a prospect (or three) in order to acquire depth at defense and the wing positions.

Here's a rundown of the organization's options at center:

Marc Savard eats a burrito.

Locks to remain in Boston

• David Krejci - No Bruin has more job security than this kid.
• Patrice Bergeron - His $4.7m contract is an albatross, so movement is unlikely.
• Marc Savard - He's a free agent next year, and could be an eventual cap casualty.

(That leaves one NHL roster spot to be shared by the rest of the organization.)

Questionable in 2009-10

• Stephane Yelle - Fantastic value for veteran depth, but Yelle is going to be squeezed out eventually by young talent.
• Vladimir Sobotka - Time to fish or cut bait with this prospect. He is ready to be a full-time NHL player, either in this organization or another. His fate is tied to Yelle's.
• Phil Kessel - Don't forget, he's officially listed as a center. In a 5 year outlook, he could replace Savard on the first line... if he's still on the team.
  

Long term prospects

• Joe Colborne - Last year's 16th overall pick will spend this year as a college sophomore. Look for him to crack the roster as a full-time player in 2012.
• Brad Marchand - He could be the next Krejci or the next Sobotka, depending on how much he grows in Providence. Expect him to see NHL ice this season.
• Zach Hamill - The 8th overall pick in 2007, he would be a tempting trade asset.
• Jordan Caron - Yet another first-round pick. Is he the most likely to be dealt?
• Maxime Sauve - Will be under the radar for a while, but word is he has a lot of upside.

Trade bait

• Martin St. Pierre - Little reason to believe he will ever stick in Boston. Could be valuable to a rebuilding team.
• Carl Soderberg - An X-factor who has not yet played in North America. At 23, it's time for Chiarelli to make a decision on him.
• Jamie Arniel - Persistent questions about his character have put a damper on his early hype.
• Mark Goggin - Only 19, he'll head to Dartmouth this season.
• Nicholas Tremblay - Only a sophomore in college, but not impressing.
  

Levi Nelson, left, poses with Brad Marchand, a real-life hockey player.

Career AHL'ers

• Brock Bradford - Not a chance he makes it to the Big Show in this system.
• Levi Nelson - An underwhelming debut in Providence suggests he won't make it farther.
• Ben Sexton - No reason to draft him except to do a favor to Randy Sexton.

Could the Bruins pursue Heatley?

Just an undigested idea that crossed my mind when I saw this article.

Dany Heatley - Cap hit $7.5 million

Phil Kessel - Asking $5 million in contract renegotiations
PJ Axelsson - Cap hit $1.8 million, contract ends 7/1/09.

Blockbuster trades between division rivals are unusual, but still... allowing Axelsson to walk and then sign-and-trading Kessel to Ottawa would solve a lot of problems for both the Bruins and Sens. The wing-for-wing swap would ensure roster stability, Boston gets a reliable 40-50 goal scorer and the Sens get a silver lining for their rebuild. Ottawa gets a bit of wiggle room under the cap and the Bruins spend slightly more for a much better winger.

A complimentary deal would likely need to be made, since this would leave the Bs weak at RW. Perhaps moving Sturm or Bergeron for a less-expensive winger would help fill that gap and restore some cap space.

Before you write it off, think: Heatley-Savard-Ryder. It would be pretty, if not gritty.

Trade Deadline Nostalgia - Who Got Screwed?

While we drum our fingers and wait for the judges' final decision on the Caps/Rangers and Devils/Canes matchups, let's remember that some teams made big sacrifices just to get to the last week of April.

Some of these deals don't look so good in 20/20 hindsight:

MTL Schneider + 2009 pick (conditional) = ATL 2009 2nd + 2010 3rd picks

Comparable 2nd round picks: Derek Roy (2001), Chris Bourque (2004), James Neal (2005)

Comparable 3rd round picks: Daniel Carcillo (2003), Kris Letang (2005), Steve Mason (2006)

Don't get me wrong. Schneider definitely helped keep Montreal on the right side of the playoff bubble, which was an overriding priority at the time.

Unfortunately it also represented a desperate attempt by Bob Gainey to save his own job. As an asset-management move it made no sense, as the Habs are clearly not in a position to give up valuable draft picks in the face of sweeping organizational changes. Meanwhile, the Thrashers have to be thrilled about this deal now that the pain is over in 08-09.

PHI Carcillo = PHO Upshall + 2011 2nd pick
Comparable 2nd rd picks: Tim Jackman (2001), Kamil Kreps (2003), Michael Sauer (2005)

Phoenix really cleaned up at the deadline, but this was their most uneven steal. Carcillo has little role as an NHL player, yet the Flyers were willing to potentially give up two legitimate contributors to get him. After their first-round loss to Pittsburgh, you have to wonder if Upshall (8 goals in 19 games with the Coyotes) could have made a difference. This is a real forehead-slapper for Philly.

NYR Morris = PHO Kalinin + Dawes + Prucha
NYR Antropov = TOR 2009 2nd round pick (conditional)

Comparable 2nd rd picks: Patrice Bergeron (2003), Paul Stastny (2005), Milan Lucic (2006)

Sensing a pattern here? The Rangers spent much of the season near the top of the Eastern Conference, but flatlined after an atrocious February. This trade was Glen Sather's version of CPR, trying to resuscitate his flailing team in time to make the playoff cut. Their chances of advancing as a low seed were minimal -- Antropov and Morris could never have made this team equal to the division winners -- so it's tough to rationalize the loss of three young players in the long term.

CAL Jokinen = PHO Lombardi + Prust + 2009 or 2010 1st round
CAL Leopold = COL Nycholat + Wilson + 2009 2nd round pick
Comparable 1st rd picks: Colby Armstrong (2001), Ryan Kesler (2003), Tuukka Rask (2005)
Comparable 2nd rd picks: Jason Pominville (2001), Duncan Keith (2002), David Booth (2004)

Oh man. This one hurts. Again, it's the sort of deal that a desperate GM makes when he feels the rope around his neck. Darryl Sutter squeezed the Flames so hard against the salary cap ceiling that they couldn't even ice a full roster as they stumbled down the stretch, and their new acquisitions couldn't even get Calgary to the second round. In return the Flames have shorn themselves of quality depth players for the indefinite future, likely ensuring a long rebuild beginning in the next few years.

Bruins Cap Crunch Pt 2: Bergeron's Days Are Numbered

Since last Friday, when Part 1 of this article was written, we've learned of key details in the Tim Thomas contract:


The contract is a 4-year deal worth $20 million -- more time and money than had been previously reported in the press. Despite the fact that Thomas signed the contract before his 35th birthday, the league will consider him "age 35" at the time of signing. Therefore his cap number cannot change; buying him out will have no effect, a wrinkle that Peter Chiarelli appears to have miscalculated. Oh yeah, there's a no-movement clause in the first 3 years of Thomas' contract. The $5 million cap hit is written in stone.



Good News

As pointed out at Bobby Orr's Bastard, the cap hits for Tuukka Rask and Blake Wheeler will be greatly reduced next season. In a nutshell, the terms of the new CBA will be in effect and players currently on entry-level contracts (including Rask and Wheeler) will have a maximum cap hit of $875,000. This will save the Bruins about $4 million if both players are on the active roster.


Pink Slips


At this point it's clear that the Bruins will have to move some salaries in the offseason. The question is -- who stays and who goes?

For now, we can generally guess that the team will move forward with a Thomas/Rask tandem in net. It's given that Manny Fernandez and his $4.3 million cap hit will be long gone by training camp. Compared to this season's cap numbers, that makes the goaltending position more or less a wash. All things considered, it's also unlikely that the blueliners' combined cap hit will be much different from one season to the next (unless Matt Hunwick hits the jackpot).

That brings us to the forwards.


PJ Axelsson will surely not be brought back at $1.85 million; it's up to him and his agent whether they want to re-sign for significantly less. If not, Axelsson could be replaced by Vladimir Sobotka for only $750k. The net balance of this situation should be a $1m advantage for Boston.


After that, the decisions start to get tougher. Cap casualties could include Chuck Kobasew ($2.3m), Marco Sturm ($3.5m) or Michael Ryder ($4m), though all of these would come at a significant cost to the team's forward depth. Of course, they would also need to be replaced by a bargain-basement player, leaving the Bruins shallower and damaging their chemistry.


A more emotionally-charged option would be to trade Patrice Bergeron. At $4.7 million, Bergeron made roughly the same salary this season as Saku Koivu, Alex Semin and Eric Staal. With all due respect to Bergeron's brave battle against concussion problems, he's being paid too much to score only 7 goals and to be one of only three regular forwards without a + rating.


The cost of keeping Bergeron would be more than meets the eye. Not only would it affect contract negotiations for the team's younger players (Kessel, Lucic and Krecji), but it would threaten the Bruins' chances of re-signing Marc Savard in two years. It's only speculation at this stage, but this pundit would be shocked to see Bergeron in a Bruins uniform at training camp.

How do they do it?

Only two teams in the league have managed to navigate these issues year-after-year, without seeing a significant downturn in the quality of their roster. Detroit and New Jersey have seen potential dynasties crumble in Tampa, Pittsburgh, Boston, Anaheim, Dallas and Colorado... and they keep plugging along, winning division titles and staying in the Cup race despite significant roster turnover. There are lessons to be learned from them:

1) Drafting, developing and trading new players is key to suriving turnover. Trading Petteri Nokelainen and Matt Lashoff in return for veterans made sense for this season's playoff run -- but the cost to the organization's depth is not insignificant.

2) If at all possible, it's vital to work "hometown discounts" into new contracts. Clearly this was not the case with Thomas, but Chiarelli needs to convince players like Kessel and Wheeler that playing for the Bruins is worth a slight pay cut. The Red Wings have been masterful at this game.

3) Today's hero is tomorrow's goat. The biggest risk in the Thomas extension is that he'll turn out to be the next Byron Dafoe. Signing players to long-term, high-dollar contracts is not an advisable approach to franchise-building.


So the Bruins' approach should boil down to a few simple principles:


- Ditch players like Bergeron and Axelsson who are not playing to their pay level. If possible, trade them for picks or prospects who will restock Providence when the P-Bruins are called up.

- Lock up cornerstone players like Lucic and Krejci to short, incentive-laden contracts that will keep them in Boston without removing accountability.

- Exploit Thomas' contract by working Rask into the lineup a few games at a time. He has a minimum of 3 seasons to work on his game behind a possible Vezina winner.

And pray that the cap doesn't shrink too much.

Trade Reactions From Around The NHL(osphere)

Why write a blog when you can have other people write one for you? Here are reactions to yesterday's trade deadline, from people who know their teams better than I do:

Habs
Dennis Kane on the Habs' quiet day: "I think any team that is outshot 45 to 25 every single game needed to make a trade today. But hey, what do I know? Oh yeah, I know they get outshot 45 to 25 every single game."

Leafs
Heroes in Rehab on Brian Burke's kinship to Rocky: "This is just step one of the process. Rocky wanted to make it to the end of the fight; Brian Burke’s goal today was simply to re-stock the draft pick cupboard as capably as he could."

Sabres
Die By The Blade on trading for Dominic Moore and sending Ales Kotalik packing: "One thing I know about Dominic Moore is that he gives 100% all the time. That is something we didn't get from Ales Kotalik despite all of his talent."

Sens

Five For Smiting, feeling a little grumpy after the Vermette/Leclaire deal: "We still have the worst defence in the history of everything. The goaltending still blows moose balls, at least until Pascal straps them on for real next October. Other than a mid-second rounder, we have no extra draft picks. And you managed to add around seven mil a year to our cap number, which pretty much kills any hope we had of re-signing Mike Comrie. "

Pens
The Pensblog on picking up Guerin: "No matter what he does, there will always be some fanboy that needs more. And that sucks. If you're upset with Shero's moves at the deadline, get real."

Isles
Lighthouse Hockey on getting a conditional pick for Guerin: "Obviously Garth Snow would have preferred that 2nd-rounder in 2010 that Boston sent Tampa Bay for a similarly aged Mark Recchi. But once the Bruins made their move for a winger, the Penguins likely held all the leverage."

Rangers
Rangers Report on Sather's moves:"In simple terms, they got better for this year, didn’t give up much of the future, and as long as they don’t re-sign either Nik Antropov or Derek Morris, they will have a little more salary cap space this summer for signing Dubinsky, Callahan, Mara and whomever else they really want to keep."

Caps
On Frozen Blog, on holding one's cards: "A pill that seemingly swallows bitter this morning will prove to be good medicine when jerseys bearing names like Carlson, Varlamov, and Alzner are moving about Verizon Center ice together in the not-too-distant future."

Lightning
Boltsmag on Tampa's asset management: "I compare it to the old joke about a little boy who goes to school with a five dollar bill. He brags to his friend he has one five dollar bill and is offered three one dollar bills in trade. “Three is more than one!” the friend tells the first boy."

Thrashers
Blueland Chronicle, feeling a little underwhelmed: "All in all a pretty unimpressive trade deadline. Not all of which is Waddell's fault, of course, because of the economy and over-cautious market and stuff. But still..."

Blackhawks
Hockee Night on Sammy Pahlsson: "Hawks are developing a puck-control offense, albeit still not at the level of Detroit, and winning faceoffs are a big part of that. Pahlsson immediately becomes the guy the Hawks want taking faceoffs in the defensive zone late, when they have a lead, and the other team pulled their goalie. He will win that shit, you can bank on it."

Flames
Matchsticks and Gasoline on giving up the farm for Jokinen: "Overall, I'm ambivalent bordering on dissatisfied. But we'll see how this plays out on the ice..."

Sharks
Fear the Fin on Moen and Huskins: "It all comes down to heart and experience during the playoffs, and while these two guys aren't gamebreakers, they do provide depth. "

Ducks
Earl Sleek on sending Montador to the Bruins: "The Bruins got themselves a really useful player, and in fact I think they're more playoff-ready now than if they used Phil Kessel to land Chris Pronger."

Rangers Load Up, And Other News

Looks like the Bruins' Sunday-afternoon game against the Rangers might be even more colorful than usual.

The Rags have decided to go all-in for this year's playoffs, making a couple of big moves:

- Acquired forward Nik Antropov from Toronto for a draft package
- Acquired defenseman Derek Morris from the Coyotes for Kalinin, Dawes and Prucha
- Picked up Sean Avery off waivers from the Stars

The good news is that none of these moves are going to help the Rangers in the long run, as they maintain their reputation for trying to get a Cup the easy way instead of building a real team. The bad news is that they suddenly have one of the league's most potent blue lines, combined with a larger and nastier set of forwards than they've had in a long time. Oh yeah, and they've got a decent goalie too.

Other news from around the league as the trade deadline mercifully passes:

The Flames and Pens are the high-rollers of the day. Pittsburgh steals Bill Guerin from the Isles for a conditional draft pick in a last-ditch attempt to salvage their season. Calgary mortgages a large chunk of their future for Olli Jokinen and Jordan Leopold. Somehow both of these teams expect to get big results out of perennial postseason underachievers.

The Ducks get the award for Most Enthusiastic, making five transactions on top of the Whitney/Kunitz trade a few days ago. None of it will amount to much, other than stocking the fridge for a quick rebuild.

The Coyotes decide it's time to strip down and rebuild... again. Anyone got an empty arena in need of an NHL franchise?

Buffalo acquires Dominic Moore and Mikael Tellqvist, meaning nothing.

Brian Burke used his managerial genius to translate Moore and Antropov into a couple of 2nd-round picks and Martin Gerber. Ouch.

The Sens took another step toward a #1 draft pick.

The Habs completed another phase of Project Letdown, quietly running out the clock. No Vinny, no Marty, no nothin'.

Peter Forsberg retired.

What didn't happen: Florida didn't move Jay Bouwmeester. Tampa held on to both Lecavalier and St. Louis. Pronger and Niedermayer still play for the Ducks. The Blues retained Tkachuk for the rest of the season. The Avs didn't deal Smyth, Hedjuk or Laperriere. And Manny Fernandez is still a Bruin.

Shifts in the balance of power: New York, Calgary and Pittsburgh take big steps up. Boston and Philly get marginally better. Buffalo and Dallas make minor tweaks. Toronto, Ottawa, Anaheim and Phoenix are toast.

Bruins trade for experience (Recchi), depth (Montador)

Looks like Pete Chiarelli's going to settle on 2 moves today:

To Anaheim:
F Petteri Nokelainen
To Boston:
D Steve Montador

To Tampa:
D Matt Lashoff
F Martins Karsums
To Boston:
F Mark Recchi
2010 2nd round pick

It would appear that these deals went hand-in-hand. By acquiring Montador, Chiarelli gained enough depth on the blueline to safely unload Lashoff. Ultimately, this means that the Bruins traded 3 futures for 2 roster players and a decent draft pick.

It's not the blockbuster Kessel-for-Pronger deal that the media would've loved, but this certainly improves the Bruins' prospects in both the present and future.

For the present - The Bruins just got a little more experienced, a little deeper and a little more stable. Recchi is a much-needed left handed winger, but more importantly a steadying hand in the locker room and a resource for young LWs Lucic and Wheeler. Montador adds depth to the defensive corps, and in the event that a defenseman is injured he will make Claude Julien's decisions a little easier. Neither move will have a dramatic effect on the roster, but both make the Bruins slightly more playoff-ready.

For the future - Lashoff is a solid prospect for Tampa but he didn't appear to have much of a future in Boston after making little out of his chances with the Bruins. Karsums was simply a casualty of the depth chart. The only significant loss is Nokelainen, who has been on IR for a month and looked to have been leapfrogged by prospects like Bitz and Sobotka. And in the process, the Bruins acquired a 2nd round pick -- recent players the Bruins have drafted in the 2nd or later include Lucic, Sobotka, Hunwick, and rookie sensation Kris Versteeg.

Considering the Bruins' cap constraints and the conservative nature of this trading season, I have to give Chiarelli props for improving the Bruins' Cup chances without making any painful sacrifices.

Do the Bruins REALLY need a defenseman?

Lots of scuttlebutt today surrounding the Bruins, who seem very likely to make a move before noon tomorrow. Most of the chatter concerns the following:

- Left wingers - Erik Cole, Keith Tkachuk
- Defensemen - Chris Pronger, Jordan Leopold, Tomas Kaberle, Ruslan Salei, Derek Morris, Pavel Kubina

The consensus seems to be that the Bruins will trade for a puck-moving defenseman (if the sheer volume of rumors is meaningful).

Here's what the Bruins are currently sporting at D:
1st pairing
Chara - Norris candidate, projects to set a career high in goal scoring.
Ward - Perhaps playing a role outside his ability, but he's one of the more reliable vets on the team.

2nd pairing
Wideman - Already working on a career high in scoring, top-10 in the league.
Ference - Despite injury troubles, has matured as a puck-mover and scored 1/2 ppg.

3rd pairing
Stuart - Has scored a career-high 5 goals so far, despite being a shutdown guy.
Hnidy - Adds a lot of grit at the back end of the lineup, not something to be taken for granted.

In addition, Claude Julien has the option of activating any of the following to fill holes along the blue line:
Hunwick - A natural defenseman who at one point was the team's most productive blueliner.
Axelsson and Bergeron - Forwards who play the point on the man-advantage.
Lashoff and Boychuk - Prospects currently in Providence, both having spent time in Boston recently.

So, what's missing here? The Bruins blueline corps features two top-quality point men, several hulking defensive defensemen, and plenty of sandpaper. Julien can pair Chara and Wideman for an All-Star quality offensive duo, or put out Chara and Stuart in a "prevent" situtation. For speed he can pair Hunwick with Ference. If things get rough he can rely on The Sherriff and Mental Ward.

This isn't to say the Boston blueline (see what I did there?) can't be upgraded -- Pronger and Kaberle could step right into that top pairing with Chara and look pretty scary. But how much would that improve the Bruins as a team? Chara and Pronger are 30 min/game players, and Wideman is highly productive at 25 per game... meaning there would be 35 minutes of total ice time remaining for Ference, Ward and Stuart.

It made sense at the beginning of the season for the Bruins to trade for a defenseman, but standout seasons from the majority of the defensive corps have eliminated the need for any drastic moves. Considering the sacrifice it would take to acquire an All-Star defenseman at the trade deadline (surely a productive roster player or high draft pick), the Bruins could be much more productive by acquiring a forward to provide scoring depth and veteran leadership. Going after a defenseman at this stage would be soooo 2008.

Colborne for Cole: Pass or Fail?

Less than a week to go until the trade deadline... time to start sifting through the rumors and see what sticks.

We've known for nearly a month that the Bruins have a serious interest in Erik Cole. Oilers scout Dave Semenko has been spotted at numerous Bruins games, which lends this rumor a bit of weight. According to the rumor mill, the Oilers will want either Vladimir Sobotka, Matt Hunwick or Matt Lashoff in return for Cole. However, the Oilers are already loaded with defensemen and to be honest Sobotka is a borderline NHL'er and not much help in a rebuild.

The name that is beginning to emerge is that of Joe Colborne, the Bruins' first-round pick (#16 overall) in the 2008 draft.

So the hypothetical trade would be:

Erik Cole
6'2", 205lb, age 30
144g, 161a, 205p, 469 PIM, +9 in 478 career games

for

Joe Colborne
6'5", 195lb, age 19
6g, 15a, 21p in 27 games for Denver (NCAA)

Pass or Fail?

My take: Colborne is a steep price to pay for a rental player. But with the stars aligning for a long playoff run this season, Cole could be a difference-maker for the Bruins. Imagine a Cole-Savard-Kessel first line, and a Lucic-Bergeron-Kobasew third line in the third or fourth round.

The Trade Deadline: A Plea For Sanity

My, what a difference a season can make.

This time last year, Peter Chiarelli played a conservative hand at the trade deadline -- no moves were made, as the team's biggest concern was to dump veteran salaries and make space for young talent.

Early this season, on the heels of an unexpected playoff berth, Bruins fans were talking about the possibility of making a long playoff run within 2-3 seasons. This year was to be a bridge between the past and future, and another road-ice playoff berth was the optimisitic outlook.

Now here we are reading articles speculating on the possibility that Chiarelli could make a blockbuster move for Chris Pronger, Keith Tkachuk or Erik Cole. All of these rumors assume that he would be willing to let go of promising young talent or high draft picks, and that the end-game would be a Stanley Cup run this spring.

Maybe it's time to stop and take a deep breath. We're moving a bit too fast, aren't we?

Some perspective: Phil Kessel (21), David Krecji (22) and Matt Hunwick (23) are all coming up for contract renewal this summer. The size and length of those contracts will set the landscape for the Chiarelli-era Bruins -- presumably for the next 3-5 years. At the same time, the Bruins will likely dump or cut the salaries of veterans Stephane Yelle, P.J. Axelsson and Shane Hnidy. And of course, in the process they'll work out a plan of succession for the goaltending position -- which is complicated by the fact that Tuukka Rask's contract is finished after next season.

Perhaps more importantly, next summer the Bruins will renegotiate contracts with Marc Savard, Milan Lucic, Blake Wheeler, Andrew Ference, Aaron Ward, Mark Stuart, Shawn Thornton and Petteri Nokelainen.

All of this means that the Bruins are, effectively, still in the middle of the rebuilding process. As good as they may be at present, only a handful of players are locked up through next summer. It would be unwise to move prospects or draft picks under the assumption that they're expendable, without knowing for certain whether key players such as Savard and Kessel will be around for much longer.

Of course, it's difficult not to see this season as a now-or-never opportunity to bring home the Cup, with the Bruins playing their best hockey in 35 years. But let's take a lesson from last year's Pens -- today's rental player is tomorrow's lost scoring depth. For a team that's got such a bright future, that might be the difference between a dynasty and a bunch of 8th-place finishes.