Bruins vs. Wild: Stuff To Look Out For

Bruins look to get back on a winning track tonight against Minnesota. The media will make a big deal of the fact that Boston hasn't lost two regulation games in a row this season. Or they will make a big deal of the fact that the Wild have picked up at least a point against Detroit and San Jose in the past week.

One thing you can count on: when Jacques Lemaire and Claude Julien go head-to-head, it's not going to be an offensive exhibition. The last time the Bruins played a defensive-minded opponent (New Jersey) they won 1-0. Expect that kind of game tonight.

The Wild have a pop-gun offense -- Owen Nolan is somehow leading the team in goals per game -- and they just learned that Marian Gaborik has effectively quit on the team. Their best hope for making the playoffs is to hold their opponents even, capitalize on mistakes and take advantage of the charity point.

On the other hand, they have some of the best names in hockey. Owen Nolan, Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Marc-Andre Bergeron, and Colton Gillies are hockey names if I've ever heard one. Cal Clutterbuck, Nick Schultz and Brent Burns sounds like the top of a batting order. Derek Boogaard, Marek Zidlicky and Krystofer Kolanos are just wow.

The Bruins' goalie duel is the most remarkable I've ever seen. It's insane to characterize Tim Thomas as a backup, considering he's made a pretty solid case for Vezina consideration, but the fact is that Manny Fernandez has been the better of the pair in the past month or so. Julien has been fair about playing the hot hand, so look for Manny to get the start tonight against Niklas Backstrom, another Vezina darkhorse who's coming off a shutout. All three of these gentlemen are in the top-7 in both GAA and save percentage.

Bad News: Looks like Marco Sturm will be joining Patrice Bergeron on IR, while he undergoes knee surgery. No timeline on his return, though one would have to think April would be an optimistic estimate. Between Bergeron and Sturm, the Bruins are missing most of a solid second line (60 goals between them) and are wasting an $8 million cap hit. This is definitely going to have an effect on player movement at the trade deadline.

Good News: Aaron Ward will be a gametime decision, on the mend from a charley horse. Hopefully he'll actually finish this game. Also, Andrew Ference is getting closer to returning.

Bonus item: The Wild are the only NHL team with an undefeated record (4-0) in Boston.

I hate to say "I told you so"...

... but then again, that's what makes blogging so darn fun.

I admire the way the Minnesota Wild have built their team over the past few years. A conservative, team-oriented approach has brought their franchise a lot of success without the need for over-the-top contracts or foolish gambles.

But is there any reason whatsoever for them to have encountered this situation? Gaborik is shutting himself down for the next three months, despite pleas from team management for him to return in the nearer term. Basically it boils down to this:

Fragile player
+
Adversity
=
Failure

Selfishly speaking, Gaborik is making the right move. Another injury to his glass hip could make him a Peter Forsberg. By shelving himself now, he might be adding years to his career. And maybe, just maybe, he'll inexplicably come back later this season as a player who actually wants to help his team win.

But prima donnas don't change their stripes. Gaborik has never shown the tenacity or resolve of a champion, and has spent the past calendar year stringing the Wild organization along through contract disputes and rehab sessions. Now it looks like they won't even be able to get a marginal return when he leaves this summer, as his surgery will keep him out of action until after the trade deadline.

Gaborik should've been unloaded months ago. He doesn't play defense, he's not a team player, he's injured on a regular basis, and he has only one 40-goal season on record. Now he's intentionally choosing to screw the Wild out of any chance at getting compensated for his departure. He's the sum of all the nightmare scenarios that run through a GM's head late at night.

Which leaves us all to wonder: what was Doug Risebrough thinking?

Gaborik to Boston -- In Three Easy (And Highly Unlikely) Steps!

Since this rumor won't go away, let's address it head-on.

DISCLAIMER: I think it's quite farfetched that the Bruins would pursue Gaborik at this time. Hopefully they have learned from the cautionary tales of teams which threw the proverbial kitchen sink at a handful of individuals rather than building a deep, well-rounded team. Furthermore, it seems to me that the B's are at least 1-2 full seasons away from making a major free-agent acquisition toward a Cup run, and by that time they will probably have developed at least a couple of reliable 40-goal scorers from within. But for now I will accept the hypothesis that Pete Chiarelli considers Gaborik the next step toward Stanley Cup glory.



Step #1: Trade or waive Manny Fernandez

This is the toughest part of the equation, because there is no "ideal" option for making it happen. Fernandez carries very little trade value due to his injury history and less-than-insipring comeback effort so far this season. The Bruins would be well-served to wait until he strings together a few decent games and shop him for some kind of return in futures -- either a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick or a prospect from some desperate team. But that risks the possibility that he could be re-injured or simply melt down before the trigger is pulled... or that nobody would take the bait, in which case the only option would be the waiver wire. I believe that if Fernandez were waived he would be snatched up by the Avs, who have the cap space and the need for a decent puckstopper. In this case the Bruins would lose a $4.3 million, former #1 goaltender and get nothing in return.



Step #2: Offer either Phil Kessel or Blake Wheeler for Gaborik

Another tough decision, as Kessel and Wheeler are both excellent long-term projects for the Bruins and appear to be making large strides this season. But these are the only two players on the roster who would be suitable returns for Gaborik, carry a large enough salary ($2m+) to clear significant cap room, AND would not be considered a crippling loss to the Bruins franchise.



Step #3: Negotiate a $7m-ish/year contract

This is the biggest risk of all for Boston. The truth is that Gaborik is worth between 7 and 8 million on the open market, yet he has reportedly turned down a long-term offer from the Wild in the range of $10m/year. Conventional wisdom says that he's stonewalling the Wild regardless of their offer sheets and will take less money to play elsewhere. But as Pittsburgh found out this summer, conventional wisdom is often misguided. It's entirely possible that Gaborik, upon being traded to the Bruins, would stonewall Chiarelli as well and simply leave town as a free agent. In that case the Bruins would have traded a quasi-#1 goaltender and a future star forward for half a season of Gaborik. Bottom line: Gaborik MUST be receptive to a $7-8 million multi-year contract with Boston before any move is made.


Of course, this would have a massive long-term impact on the Bruins roster and cap situation. Gaborik and Chara would combine for a cap impact of $15m/year, and the Bruins would be squeezed against the ceiling for the forseeable future. Not to mention that if Gaborik is injured, underperforms or simply leaves town the Bruins will have lost significant futures in either Kessel or Wheeler.

The upside, of course, would be the addition of the first 50-goal threat since Cam Neely. It's much more difficult to win a Cup without at least one top-level scoring threat, so the addition of Gaborik would at least superficially signal a serious commitment to building a top-quality team.

Overall quality of this trade for the Bruins: 7 on a scale of 10
Likelihood of it actually happening: 4 on a scale of 10

Memo to Minnesota: Trade Gaborik. Now.

Word on the street is that the Wild are still far apart in negotiations with semi-star forward Marian Gaborik. According to reports out of training camp, the Wild have offered him a beefy $8.5 million contract, a number matched only by Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Alex Ovechkin. Somehow, Gaborik's agent still feels there is something left to discuss, so the parties remain at an impasse.

(This is where I feel obligated to point out that "salary creep" has hardly even slowed down in the Cap Era. Eric Staal's $8.25m contract set the bar too high for sub-100-point players.)

If I'm running the Wild, or have a vested interest in their success, I'm spending as much time shopping Gaborik right now as I am flying to Slovakia to meet with his people. Here are three good reasons why:

1) The contract negotiations have been very public and are one ill-advised comment away from becoming nasty. We have all seen this happen before and it never turns out well, either for the player or the team. Plus, Gaborik's agent brought up Ovechkin's salary as an indicator of what Gaborik should be looking for. Red flags all over the place on this one.

2) Even if he's signed, Gaborik has never quite bloomed into a true superstar. He's a solid 40-goal scorer, which is fine but not unique. He also doesn't play particularly strong defense, which makes him much less useful. Mike Gartner was also a smooth skater who was good for 40 goals, but we all know what really distinguished him -- playing over 1,400 games and never bringing home any hardware to show for it. Gaborik is on essentially the same career arc.

3) It appears he's at the peak of his career, so his trade value is at its max right now. At age 26, he has perhaps 3-5 more years of incremental improvement before he starts to hit the veteran skids... perhaps fewer considering his injury history. While he's in the "money" phase of his career, it's an ideal time to move him and begin a search for a true franchise player. There's always a sucker team out there desperate to make a dramatic move, so the Wild could get some decent return on Gaborik before it's too late.

In the new, fiscally responsible NHL a guy like Gaborik should be pulling about $7 million per season. That would allow the Wild to go out and find him some linemates more talented than Mikko Koivu and Andrew Brunette, and everyone would go home happy. But the reality is that Gaborik will hold out for Ovechkin money, and make a PR mess if he doesn't get it. And at the end of the day, the Wild will be a lesser team if they build around a guy who plays a one-dimensional game -- and still scores less than 10 other players in any given season.

Move him now, before it's too late.