Bruins could trade for Kovalchuk

[ed: Within moments of posting this, I came across Joe Haggerty's article for WEEI, also asserting that the Bruins should pursue Kovalchuk before the trade deadline.]

Following on yesterday's post, let's look at some plausible scenarios in which the Bruins might be in a position to make a major trade this season.

Each of these would require Peter Chiarelli to make two "setup" moves:
1) Buy out the contract of Patrice Bergeron, reducing his cap hit to $1.5m.
2) Replace him as third-line center with a youngster, such as Sobotka or Hammill, or acquire a veteran in the range of $1m.
The overall effect would be to end up with a cap cushion of roughly $4m.

Given the above, any of the following could be offered at the trade deadline:

To ATL for Ilya Kovalchuk ($6.3m)
Chuck Kobasew ($2.3m) OR Michael Ryder ($4.0m)
AND first-round picks in 2010, 2011 and 2012

To COL for Milan Hedjuk ($3.9m)
Brad Marchand ($821k) OR Byron Bitz ($687k)
AND Toronto's first-round pick in 2010

To TBL for Martin St. Louis ($5.25m)
D Adam McQuaid OR D Jeff Penner
AND First-round picks in 2010 and 2011, possibly return Tampa's second-round pick in 2010

In any of these scenarios, Boston would come out of the deal with a fast, scoring winger for the top line. In return, they would give up quality players and prospects -- but without creating a weak spot in the active roster or in the upcoming drafts or in the prospect pipeline. The loss of Bergeron would be relatively easy to cover, considering Boston's depth at the center position, and an elite winger would more than compensate for the loss of Ryder or Kobasew.

Bottom line: If Chiarelli can clear a bit of cap space, he can easily compete for free-agents-to-be without cutting deeply into the prospect pool. Given that the Bruins are going to be a top contender for the Cup, it would be crazy for him not to position himself for a major trade this season.

Bruins preparing to go all-in for 2010?

For most of last season the Bruins led the league in both offense and defense, were in first place, and enjoyed career seasons from most of the roster. The only remaining expectation was playoff success, which was cut short in bitter fashion when they couldn't generate offense consistently against Carolina.

The Bruins addressed their most glaring need -- becoming more mobile on the blue line -- early in the summer. Their only other major roster change was the loss of Phil Kessel, their leading goal-scorer. On paper, an elite sniper is the only missing ingredient holding them back from a Cup run.

Let's do a little math in the wake of the Kessel trade:

a) In the 2010 entry draft, the Bruins will now have two first-round picks (one coming from Toronto) and three second-round picks (one each from Toronto and Tampa). In the 2011 entry draft, Boston will again have an extra selection in the first round, from Toronto.

b) Currently the Bruins have $1.7 million in space under the cap.

c) At the end of the 2010 season, the Bruins will need to renew or release the contracts of six unrestricted free agents, including Marc Savard (currently a $5m cap hit) and Derek Morris ($3.3m). At the same time, the team will need to renegotiate the contracts of restricted free agents Tuukka Rask ($3.2m), Blake Wheeler ($2.8m), Mark Stuart ($1.3m), Milan Lucic ($850k), Vladimir Sobotka ($750k), Drew Larman ($550k).

d) The only players on the team who are signed beyond 2011 are David Krejci and Tim Thomas.

e) Two division rivals, Toronto and Montreal, are making dramatic changes to their lineup with the goal of competing for the Northeast Division title. One team is getting much bigger, the other much smaller -- chances are, one of them is taking a good approach to closing the gap with Boston.


Add it all up and we get:

f) If there was ever a season for Peter Chiarelli to make a major trade, it's right now. The iron is red-hot and the opportunity will be over as soon as next summer's tough contract decisions begin.


Loaded with high draft picks and NHL-ready prospects destined to spend most of the winter in Providence, Chiarelli has both the leverage and the incentive to make a high-stakes gamble on the Bruins' Cup chances. All he needs now is an opportunity.

Next post: Talking specifics -- who could be acquired, what it would cost, and whether it would be enough to end the Cup drought.

Let's try this again: How much can Kessel expect to make?

Earlier this week we speculated about what numbers might be involved in the Phil Kessel negotiations. At the time it seemed that Peter Chiarelli's only remaining task was to either sign Kessel, or deal him for a defenseman.

It seems Chiarelli had other things on his mind, thus the flurry of activity on Thursday and Friday. Things have actually become much clearer for Kessel, as the Bruins are now dealing with a definite salary cap number.

Assuming Chiarelli doesn't have any more surprises up his sleeve, here's where it stands for Kessel:

Bruins cap space - $1.3 million
Chuck Kobasew's cap hit - $2.3 million
Possible salary for Kessel - $3.6 million

There it is, Phil... take it or leave it. Contracts larger than Kobasew's are unmoveable, so trading Chuckie is Chiarelli's last and best hope for clearing some cap space to sign Kessel.

Last Wednesday's post pegged Kessel's market value at roughly $3.4 million, based on similar contracts and his lack of leverage in the negotiations. This should really be a very simple decision for him. End this stalemate early, spend the rest of the summer shopping for Porsches and look forward to another year of burying Marc Savard passes.

Tweeters get ahead of themselves; Bruins' wild day continues

What a strange day it's been. I'm setting a new record with 4 posts, because every time I log on there is something new to report.

The latest development is that the Bruins signed -- oops, ALMOST signed -- former Coyote/Ranger Derek Morris as reported (and then recanted) on Twitter by James Murphy. Here's the chuckle-worthy series of Tweets:

Bruins have signed Derek Morris. More details to come.

Regarding last tweet, I was just told by reliable source Bruins have signed Derek Morris. Trying to confirm.

Still trying to confirm. But it appears Derek Morris very likely could be a Bruin.

No confirmation yet but all signs pointing towards Morris to Bruins. There are other teams in on him, but sources tell me, Bruins got him.

Update on Derek Morris to Bruins: All we can say is that the Bruins and Morris are very close to a deal. No call back from agent. So "close"

WBZ reporting Morris' agent says Bruins one of several teams in mix, no Bruins announcement today. My sources still say Bruins the team

Mmm hmm... everyone got that? This is the sort of embarrassing thing that we are going to see more of in the age of New Media.

Even better are the bloggers who jumped on the story too early, vaguely citing "sources" that could "confirm" an event that didn't actually happen.

Jumpy Tweeters notwithstanding, the Morris signing appears to be a legit story. This means the Bruins have effectively swapped Aaron Ward for Morris, a 4th round pick, and a slight cap hit for 3 of the next 4 years.

Now for the latest head-scratcher: Morris carried a healthy $3.95 million cap hit last season. Granted, the contract was bloated and we are sure to see Morris take a pay cut... but it's hard to imagine him going much below Ward's salary level.

In other words, this "salary dump" was not actually a salary dump at all. It was, more or less, an even salary swap in which the Bruins got slightly younger, softer and more skillful on the blue line.

So after all that, still no progress in the Kessel stalemate.

I'm sure that Peter Chiarelli is either mad, or a genius. I hope that he's both.

Chiarelli positioning to trade Kessel, or just playing mind games?

Still trying to get our minds around Peter Chiarelli's intentions in trading Aaron Ward, we come across some unsettling statements in the media:

- The Boston Globe and Rink Rap both report that the trade was designed specifically to deliver Ward back to his adopted home of North Carolina.

"Frankly, I wouldn't have traded him anywhere else except to Carolina because that's where his home is."

"I knew right off the bat," Ward said. "It's never good when your general manager calls you in the summer. He told me I was traded. I was pretty happy with the news that I'd get to go back to Carolina. He conveyed to me that he wasn't going to trade me anywhere else but Carolina. It worked out well."

Let's hope that Chiarelli is just playing at public relations, and not honestly stating that this was a personal favor to Ward. Taking care of Bruins alumni is a noble cause, but not at the (literal) expense of the franchise.


- The conventional wisdom around the deal is that it's a cap-friendly move which will allow the team to re-sign Phil Kessel. Not so, says Chiarelli:

"I'm looking at another defenseman," said Chiarelli. "I would expect we
would add a defenseman. Whether we're searching for a partner (for Zdeno Chara -- Ward was his partner last season) or someone we already have is going to play with him, that's all (undecided at this point)."

Um. Looking at adding another... defenseman? You mean, someone to replace the defenseman you just traded?

Again, let's hope this is nothing more than posturing for Kessel to read in tomorrow's press. A sly GM wants to make a free-agent feel that the team can walk away from the table if necessary. This statement was sufficiently ambiguous that there's really no telling what plans are being laid behind closed doors.

But if we take this quote as face value, it more or less confirms that Kessel will be moved. Re-signing him would eliminate any possibility of acquiring a top-4 defenseman this year. Unless, of course, Carolina wants to unload one in exchange for a buyout forward and a low draft pick. Just sayin'.

- But then we get hit with this curveball:

"With respect to Phil, he's a good young player and we want him in our mix. I've got the endorsement of ownership that any offer that comes in we will match."

Ok, so now we have an olive branch being extended to the Kessel camp. Or is it an invitation to disaster?

Remember, it wasn't so long ago that a young, talented forward in the Northeast Division faced restricted free agency and the possibility of being traded. His team made a commitment to match any offer sheet that came along, because they couldn't afford to lose his long-term promise. He's blossomed into a regular 40-goal scorer, though much like Kessel he could still use some work on his overall game.

His name is Thomas Vanek, and he carries a $7,000,000 cap hit. It's hard to imagine that Chiarelli would find a way to fulfill his promise to match "any offer" if a team like the Leafs swoops in and offers, say, a $5.5 million deal to Kessel. Is the above just more hot air, or is he throwing down the gaunlet to any would-be suitors?

- Finally, Chiarelli explains that Eaves' buyout was actually advantageous for Boston:

“Because the contract is structured with escalating salaries, we actually get a positive credit to our cap next year in the amount of $41,000,” said
Chiarelli, who noted that because Eaves is younger than 26, the buyout is for one-third the value of the deal.

So if Eaves isn’t claimed on waivers, he will be a slight cap hit (around $258,000) for Boston this year and then give the Bruins more room next season.

Setting aside the arcane rules that allow for such a situation, it's a bit difficult to swallow this reasoning. Granted, it gives the Bruins the slightest bit of relief in summer of '10, when four more key players come up for new contracts. But in three other seasons, this is an utterly unnecessary $250k penalty raises the Bruins' overall buyout penalties to over $2 million this season.

And, bafflingly, Chiarelli has yet to explain why he took Eaves in the first place. Trading Ward for a fourth-round pick would be one-sided. Trading him for a fourth and a cap penalty is salary-cap sabotage.

Since the Bruins have improved so dramatically under his watch, Chiarelli has enjoyed an abnormally generous benefit of the doubt. Any gold-blooded Bruins fan wants this trade to work out, Kessel to be re-signed and have a monster season, and the organization to look back on today as another signpost in a Cup-winning journey.

But until we see the final destination with our own eyes, this has the feeling of a true leap of faith not seen from the Bruins since... well, since the last time we defended a Northeast Division title.

Are you frickin' kidding me?

I barely had time to type that last post before Boston put Patrick Eaves on waivers with the intention of buying him out.

Let me get this straight.

Lacking depth on the blue line, we traded a veteran defenseman who was a leader in the locker room...

... for a near-worthless draft pick and an underachieving forward we didn't need...

... who we then put on waivers to either be scooped up elsewhere or bought out...

... so we will now carry another buyout hit in addition to those which caused this cap crunch to begin with.

And Chiarelli couldn't find a better deal elsewhere? What would be wrong with simply trading Ward straight-up for a draft pick? Why take on a useless cap hit in the process of a salary dump???

Deep in my brain there's a rational explanation slowly forming around the idea of re-signing Kessel or moving him to a team that could give us a two-fer. But that idea simply doesn't align with the sheer stupidity of taking on a contract which will be nothing but an empty cap hit for the next several years. It's like eating a whole carrot cake as part of your diet, because carrots are healthy.

Of course, Kessel is worth this painful trade. If he scores 40 this year, Chiarelli will be hailed as a genius. But it's hard to understand how this is the best deal available for a team already struggling with a serious cap crunch... and needing every bit of breathing room for Savard, Lucic and Wheeler next summer.

How much is Kessel really worth?

While we wait for this impasse to clear, there are only two variables left in play:

1) How much does Kessel think he's worth?
2) Can the Bruins achieve that number by dumping salary to other teams?

I'll leave Eklund to work on that second item, but #1 is something worth thinking about.

Let's take a look at the historical precedent. Kessel is 21 and coming off a 36-goal campaign -- an unusual scenario for any team trying to construct a market-value offer. In fact, I could only find five similar cases in recent history:

Marian Hossa, 2001: He rang up 32 goals for Ottawa, but was unable to come to terms when his rookie contract expired. Hossa sat out until two weeks into the season, signing a 3-year deal worth $2.8 million per. After three more seasons of similar production, he signed with the Thrashers at $5m/yr and has been a mercenary ever since.

Simon Gagne, 2002: Gagne led the Flyers with 33 goals, and signed a two-year contract the following summer for $2.35m per. He continued to climb the scoring list and landed a $5.25m/yr deal several years later. Nagging injuries that began in his early 20s have blossomed to siderail his career, though he can still hold his own.

Dany Heatley, 2003: This is, of course, an unusal story. Heatley was one of the league's brightest stars when he scored 41 goals in his second season, and under the right circumstances would have turned out quite differently. However, his personal life and the lockout got in the way and he ended up being traded to Ottawa. His post-lockout salary was in the $4.5m/yr range, but that was two years removed from his breakout season.

Alex Semin, 2007: Another odd story, which involved the Capitals suing Semin's agent for breach of contract when he split for Russia after his rookie season. When he returned, the 23-year-old scored 38 goals and was rewarded with a 2-year contract at $4.6m per. He'll be looking to hit the jackpot after this season as an RFA.

Thomas Vanek, 2007: This is the nightmare scenario. Vanek was 5th in scoring during the final year of his rookie contract, and everything seemed on track until the Oilers signed him to an absurd 7-year, $50m ($7.14m/per) offer sheet. In the wake of other free agent departures, Sabres management had little choice but to absorb this monstrosity of a contract.

So, the historical record shows a little bit of everything: from the "prove it" contract (Gagne) to a regrettable trade (Heatley) to a cap-crushing offer sheet (Vanek). Oddly, the post-cap contracts seem to be less restrained than those which occurred in a free market.

Of the five, Kessel's situation is most similar to Gagne's. He's playing on a Cup-contending, big-market team alongside one of the best setup men in the league. He's got a media-friendly personal history. If he should stay in Boston, he'll be one of the top names in this year's Winter Classic. The table is set for him to have a huge season, one in which his value could eventually elevate into the $5-6m range or higher. But that is contingent upon his health and his production, and the "if" factor is a bit too much for him to score that kind of deal right away.

Using the examples of Gagne and Hossa, it would be reasonable for the Bruins to offer a 2-year deal with a $3m annual cap hit. However, Kessel's agent will likely start the discussion with David Krejci's recent $3.75m extension. Taking the average, we arrive at $6.8 million over 2 years, with a cap hit of $3.4m per. Given Kessel's lack of leverage, and the likelihood of a big payday down the road, he'd be wise to take that offer.

In order to arrive at this number, the Bruins will be required to move one or more of the following: Chuck Kobasew, Andrew Ference, Mark Stuart.

Breaking news: Hunwick signs for 2 years

Boston.com just reported that Matt Hunwick has signed a 2-year deal with Boston to avoid arbitration. Not much detail readily available, but I'm going to throw out a few educated guesses:

1) Hunwick's agent advised him to take a last-chance deal before going to arbitration, meaning he probably settled in the range of $1.6-1.75m/yr. I don't see him settling for less, but I don't see him getting any more on Friday so this was probably the best deal for all concerned. [ed: The Bruins made out better than I expected -- Hunwick's deal will average $1.45m/yr. This is a great deal for the Bruins, who can use every quarter-mil they can squeeze under the cap.]

2) This means that if Hunwick's career continues to arc upward, he will be in for an enormous payday in two years. The Bruins will have to make some very difficult decisions if that happens.

3) Expect movement on Phil Kessel in the near future. Hunwick was the only other question-mark on the 2010 roster, so Peter Chiarelli is now dealing with an absolute cap number.

Until today, I'd imagine that the dialogue between Chiarelli and Kessel was nothing but posturing. Now there's no point in kidding each other -- either Boston can afford to retain him or they can't. Chiarelli simply needs to know how much Kessel is willing to play for, and whether that number can be achieved by moving a player or two to another team.

If I'm right about Hunwick's new cap hit, my back-of-a-napkin tally has the Bruins at $54.6 million committed to this season, with a $56.8 million cap ceiling. Kessel will likely not sign any contract for less than $4m per season, and it's pretty clear that he wants to shoot for $5m if possible.

My expectation: within the next two weeks Chiarelli will find a taker for Chuck Kobasew, moving $2.3m off the roster. He'll offer Kessel $4.3m for 2 years, leaving just the slightest bit of space under the cap ceiling. And then we'll start talking about next season's cap crisis.

Sergei Zubov. Think about it.

ESPN's Pierre LeBrun reports that Sergei Zubov is testing the free agent market after 12 year in Dallas.

Now, don't get me wrong. The Bruins have cap issues and don't know what's going to happen with Phil Kessel.

But... if Kessel signs an offer sheet, the Bruins have the option to take salary-free draft picks as compensation. That would leave about $5 million of cap space to play with. Kessel accounted for 36 goals last season, but the Bruins would be bringing in ~25-goal-scoring Marco Sturm and should see improved production from their younger guys (could Wheeler hit 30 with quality PP opportunities?).

Bruins minus Kessel plus Zubov. Think about it.

Pronger signs for 7 years -- time for tougher rules?

According to various informal sources, Chris Pronger just inked a 7-year contract with Philly. That means he's Flyers property until age 41 -- and with a no-movement clause at that.

The sweetest part of the deal is that it's front-loaded, meaning the Flyers can hold onto Pronger until he shows his age, then buy out the rest of the contract at a reduced price. Pronger hits the salary jackpot right away, the Flyers take a minimal cap hit for a former Hart winner, and nobody has much to lose if the deal sours.

Which brings us to the salient question: is it time for the NHL to stop the trend of front-loaded, long-term deals which skirt the purpose of the salary cap? At the very least, these deals make a mockery of "cost certainty" and severely disadvantage small-market teams. Weren't those the reasons for the cap, and the traumatic lockout?

Bruins get Krecji for 3 more years

Boston.com is breaking the news that the Bruins have extended third-year center David Krejci to a 3-year contract, with a cap hit of $3.75m per year.

Krejci will get a chance to defend his Seventh Player trophy.

This resolves the first half of the Bruins' biggest offseason question -- how to squeeze both Krecji and winger Phil Kessel under the cap without doing damage to the rest of the roster.



Considering Krecji is, in GM Peter Chiarelli's words, "at very least a number-two center", this deal could hardly have worked out any better for the Bruins. By comparison, Patrice Bergeron carries a $4.75m cap hit with similar expectations. The only issue to be resolved is whether David's offseason hip surgery will have a long term impact on his game. Otherwise, the team just locked up a very solid contributor at a very reasonable price.



By the way... happy 200th blog entry!

Bruins Cap Crunch Pt 2: Bergeron's Days Are Numbered

Since last Friday, when Part 1 of this article was written, we've learned of key details in the Tim Thomas contract:


The contract is a 4-year deal worth $20 million -- more time and money than had been previously reported in the press. Despite the fact that Thomas signed the contract before his 35th birthday, the league will consider him "age 35" at the time of signing. Therefore his cap number cannot change; buying him out will have no effect, a wrinkle that Peter Chiarelli appears to have miscalculated. Oh yeah, there's a no-movement clause in the first 3 years of Thomas' contract. The $5 million cap hit is written in stone.



Good News

As pointed out at Bobby Orr's Bastard, the cap hits for Tuukka Rask and Blake Wheeler will be greatly reduced next season. In a nutshell, the terms of the new CBA will be in effect and players currently on entry-level contracts (including Rask and Wheeler) will have a maximum cap hit of $875,000. This will save the Bruins about $4 million if both players are on the active roster.


Pink Slips


At this point it's clear that the Bruins will have to move some salaries in the offseason. The question is -- who stays and who goes?

For now, we can generally guess that the team will move forward with a Thomas/Rask tandem in net. It's given that Manny Fernandez and his $4.3 million cap hit will be long gone by training camp. Compared to this season's cap numbers, that makes the goaltending position more or less a wash. All things considered, it's also unlikely that the blueliners' combined cap hit will be much different from one season to the next (unless Matt Hunwick hits the jackpot).

That brings us to the forwards.


PJ Axelsson will surely not be brought back at $1.85 million; it's up to him and his agent whether they want to re-sign for significantly less. If not, Axelsson could be replaced by Vladimir Sobotka for only $750k. The net balance of this situation should be a $1m advantage for Boston.


After that, the decisions start to get tougher. Cap casualties could include Chuck Kobasew ($2.3m), Marco Sturm ($3.5m) or Michael Ryder ($4m), though all of these would come at a significant cost to the team's forward depth. Of course, they would also need to be replaced by a bargain-basement player, leaving the Bruins shallower and damaging their chemistry.


A more emotionally-charged option would be to trade Patrice Bergeron. At $4.7 million, Bergeron made roughly the same salary this season as Saku Koivu, Alex Semin and Eric Staal. With all due respect to Bergeron's brave battle against concussion problems, he's being paid too much to score only 7 goals and to be one of only three regular forwards without a + rating.


The cost of keeping Bergeron would be more than meets the eye. Not only would it affect contract negotiations for the team's younger players (Kessel, Lucic and Krecji), but it would threaten the Bruins' chances of re-signing Marc Savard in two years. It's only speculation at this stage, but this pundit would be shocked to see Bergeron in a Bruins uniform at training camp.

How do they do it?

Only two teams in the league have managed to navigate these issues year-after-year, without seeing a significant downturn in the quality of their roster. Detroit and New Jersey have seen potential dynasties crumble in Tampa, Pittsburgh, Boston, Anaheim, Dallas and Colorado... and they keep plugging along, winning division titles and staying in the Cup race despite significant roster turnover. There are lessons to be learned from them:

1) Drafting, developing and trading new players is key to suriving turnover. Trading Petteri Nokelainen and Matt Lashoff in return for veterans made sense for this season's playoff run -- but the cost to the organization's depth is not insignificant.

2) If at all possible, it's vital to work "hometown discounts" into new contracts. Clearly this was not the case with Thomas, but Chiarelli needs to convince players like Kessel and Wheeler that playing for the Bruins is worth a slight pay cut. The Red Wings have been masterful at this game.

3) Today's hero is tomorrow's goat. The biggest risk in the Thomas extension is that he'll turn out to be the next Byron Dafoe. Signing players to long-term, high-dollar contracts is not an advisable approach to franchise-building.


So the Bruins' approach should boil down to a few simple principles:


- Ditch players like Bergeron and Axelsson who are not playing to their pay level. If possible, trade them for picks or prospects who will restock Providence when the P-Bruins are called up.

- Lock up cornerstone players like Lucic and Krejci to short, incentive-laden contracts that will keep them in Boston without removing accountability.

- Exploit Thomas' contract by working Rask into the lineup a few games at a time. He has a minimum of 3 seasons to work on his game behind a possible Vezina winner.

And pray that the cap doesn't shrink too much.

The Bruins' Slowly-Developing Cap Crunch

First, let's take a moment to revel in some good news:

- The Bruins won their 50th game of the season for the first time since 1993.

- The magic number for clinching the Eastern Conference is now 1.

- For the next 3 years (potentially), we'll have a goaltending duo of Thomas/Rask. A Vezina-potential veteran and a Calder-potential rookie on the same team? Good grief.

Now, the unsettling part. Boston.com reports that the Bruins signed Thomas to a 3-year, $5.2 million deal. While this might not even break the top 10 in goalie salaries next year, it is still Brodeur money and puts the team in a difficult cap situation moving forward.

Getting too close to the ceiling

The root of the problem is that the Bruins are a bit too young for their own good -- six key players under 25 (Kessel, Krejci, Lucic, Hunwick and Stuart) are up for contract renewal in the next two years and all but Stuart will be looking for a significant raise. But the Bruins are already squeezed against the cap ceiling, so extending these players' contracts will involve trimming salary in other parts of the roster. This is where a team can go from elite to mediocre in a hurry.

Next season GM Peter Chiarelli will need to re-sign Kessel, Krejci and Hunwick as restricted free agents (meaning they are free to entertain offers from other teams, but the Bruins will have the right to match). Their current salaries combine for a $3.8m cap hit; after renewal that number will likely be closer to $9m.

Trimming fat

There is a bit of relief on the horizon -- Glen Murray's $1.4m buyout could expire this summer, giving Boston extra breathing room [edit: Murray's cap hit is in the appeals process. If he wins, the $1.4m comes off the books; if the Bruins win, it remains until the end of next season. Perverse, isn't it? Thanks to the Bastahd for pointing this out]. Also, veteran Shane Hnidy will presumably be replaced by AHL standout Johnny Boychuck, a net cap relief of $250k. It's a safe bet that P.J. Axelsson will not be renewed at $1.8m, but there's no clear answer as to who will take his place (the Bruins could save about $1m if they can find a bargain). Also, Manny Fernandez is clearly done in the organization so his $4.3m will be a major relief. Altogether, Chiarelli will be working with between $5.5m and $6.9m.

$5-7 million in cap space... roughly $5 million in new salary. You can see the problem developing.

But wait... there's more!

As if this weren't already a fairly distressing situation, a similar crunch will develop in summer 2010. Lucic will be seeking a dramatic upgrade from his current $850k; it's hard to imagine the Bruins retaining him for less than Michael Ryder's $4m.

Then there's Blake Wheeler, who is currently making $2.8m and is eligible for arbitration if the team can't come to terms. Given his outstanding rookie campaign, it's also quite possible he will be making something like $4m in his new contract. Don't forget Stuart, who will likely hold steady at $1.3m, and Marc Savard will hit the free agent market at the completion of his $5m deal.

Oh yeah... and that's the summer that Rask will be ready to ask for a starting-goalie salary.

Sounds a little bleak, doesn't it? There are options on the table for Boston to keep the ship steady through all these changes, but none of them will be easy to swallow. Chiarelli is going to be faced with some tough decisions; check back tomorrow for details.

Bruins trade for experience (Recchi), depth (Montador)

Looks like Pete Chiarelli's going to settle on 2 moves today:

To Anaheim:
F Petteri Nokelainen
To Boston:
D Steve Montador

To Tampa:
D Matt Lashoff
F Martins Karsums
To Boston:
F Mark Recchi
2010 2nd round pick

It would appear that these deals went hand-in-hand. By acquiring Montador, Chiarelli gained enough depth on the blueline to safely unload Lashoff. Ultimately, this means that the Bruins traded 3 futures for 2 roster players and a decent draft pick.

It's not the blockbuster Kessel-for-Pronger deal that the media would've loved, but this certainly improves the Bruins' prospects in both the present and future.

For the present - The Bruins just got a little more experienced, a little deeper and a little more stable. Recchi is a much-needed left handed winger, but more importantly a steadying hand in the locker room and a resource for young LWs Lucic and Wheeler. Montador adds depth to the defensive corps, and in the event that a defenseman is injured he will make Claude Julien's decisions a little easier. Neither move will have a dramatic effect on the roster, but both make the Bruins slightly more playoff-ready.

For the future - Lashoff is a solid prospect for Tampa but he didn't appear to have much of a future in Boston after making little out of his chances with the Bruins. Karsums was simply a casualty of the depth chart. The only significant loss is Nokelainen, who has been on IR for a month and looked to have been leapfrogged by prospects like Bitz and Sobotka. And in the process, the Bruins acquired a 2nd round pick -- recent players the Bruins have drafted in the 2nd or later include Lucic, Sobotka, Hunwick, and rookie sensation Kris Versteeg.

Considering the Bruins' cap constraints and the conservative nature of this trading season, I have to give Chiarelli props for improving the Bruins' Cup chances without making any painful sacrifices.

The Trade Deadline: A Plea For Sanity

My, what a difference a season can make.

This time last year, Peter Chiarelli played a conservative hand at the trade deadline -- no moves were made, as the team's biggest concern was to dump veteran salaries and make space for young talent.

Early this season, on the heels of an unexpected playoff berth, Bruins fans were talking about the possibility of making a long playoff run within 2-3 seasons. This year was to be a bridge between the past and future, and another road-ice playoff berth was the optimisitic outlook.

Now here we are reading articles speculating on the possibility that Chiarelli could make a blockbuster move for Chris Pronger, Keith Tkachuk or Erik Cole. All of these rumors assume that he would be willing to let go of promising young talent or high draft picks, and that the end-game would be a Stanley Cup run this spring.

Maybe it's time to stop and take a deep breath. We're moving a bit too fast, aren't we?

Some perspective: Phil Kessel (21), David Krecji (22) and Matt Hunwick (23) are all coming up for contract renewal this summer. The size and length of those contracts will set the landscape for the Chiarelli-era Bruins -- presumably for the next 3-5 years. At the same time, the Bruins will likely dump or cut the salaries of veterans Stephane Yelle, P.J. Axelsson and Shane Hnidy. And of course, in the process they'll work out a plan of succession for the goaltending position -- which is complicated by the fact that Tuukka Rask's contract is finished after next season.

Perhaps more importantly, next summer the Bruins will renegotiate contracts with Marc Savard, Milan Lucic, Blake Wheeler, Andrew Ference, Aaron Ward, Mark Stuart, Shawn Thornton and Petteri Nokelainen.

All of this means that the Bruins are, effectively, still in the middle of the rebuilding process. As good as they may be at present, only a handful of players are locked up through next summer. It would be unwise to move prospects or draft picks under the assumption that they're expendable, without knowing for certain whether key players such as Savard and Kessel will be around for much longer.

Of course, it's difficult not to see this season as a now-or-never opportunity to bring home the Cup, with the Bruins playing their best hockey in 35 years. But let's take a lesson from last year's Pens -- today's rental player is tomorrow's lost scoring depth. For a team that's got such a bright future, that might be the difference between a dynasty and a bunch of 8th-place finishes.

Breaking down the Bruins' cap situation

Last week I referred to the Bruins' unenviable salary cap situation. Let's open the books and see just how the money will work out this season:

The NHL salary cap for 2008-09 is $56.7M
The Bruins currently have $53.4M locked up in actual payroll.
Add a $1.4M penalty for Glen Murray's buyout, plus some other jibber-jabber, and the "cap payroll" stands at $55.4M.
Therefore we have $1.23M of flexibility, should an opportunity come along to add a quality player, though probably not an impact player at that price (Andrew Alberts makes $1.25M this season).

The upside of this situation is that the Bruins have a very stable roster and there ought to be little temptation to go out and spend money on a "rental" player like Forsberg or Sundin. The downside is that there is very little flexibility to change the roster significantly.

Looking ahead to training camp, the biggest salary question mark for the Bruins is in goal. Tim Thomas ($1.1M) is coming off a career season, one in which he seemingly earned a lock on the starting position. But Manny Fernandez would make a pretty expensive backup ($4.3M), and hasn't really had the opportunity to fight for the starting role due to last year's early-season injury. Then there's phenom Tukka Rask, who appears ready to make a trial run in the NHL -- but Rask's $3.2M salary means that either Thomas or Fernandez would need to hit the road in order to keep the team cap-friendly. If one of the vets stumbles out of the gate, or Rask starts to get itchy feet in Providence, something will have to give. Such is life when your top defenseman is making nearly $8M a year.

Fortunately there is relief on the horizon -- the Bruins have only $43M locked up for the '09-'10 season, with most key players already signed on. That will provide some pretty significant elbow space to work out the situation in goal. It'll also likely mean that this is the last season we see the underachieving P.J. Axelsson, who at $1.8M is something of a burden. Phil Kessel should be playing with a fire under his ass this season as well, since he's up for a raise after the year is done.

Later this week: previewing the Bruins' young talent.