Bruins could trade for Kovalchuk

[ed: Within moments of posting this, I came across Joe Haggerty's article for WEEI, also asserting that the Bruins should pursue Kovalchuk before the trade deadline.]

Following on yesterday's post, let's look at some plausible scenarios in which the Bruins might be in a position to make a major trade this season.

Each of these would require Peter Chiarelli to make two "setup" moves:
1) Buy out the contract of Patrice Bergeron, reducing his cap hit to $1.5m.
2) Replace him as third-line center with a youngster, such as Sobotka or Hammill, or acquire a veteran in the range of $1m.
The overall effect would be to end up with a cap cushion of roughly $4m.

Given the above, any of the following could be offered at the trade deadline:

To ATL for Ilya Kovalchuk ($6.3m)
Chuck Kobasew ($2.3m) OR Michael Ryder ($4.0m)
AND first-round picks in 2010, 2011 and 2012

To COL for Milan Hedjuk ($3.9m)
Brad Marchand ($821k) OR Byron Bitz ($687k)
AND Toronto's first-round pick in 2010

To TBL for Martin St. Louis ($5.25m)
D Adam McQuaid OR D Jeff Penner
AND First-round picks in 2010 and 2011, possibly return Tampa's second-round pick in 2010

In any of these scenarios, Boston would come out of the deal with a fast, scoring winger for the top line. In return, they would give up quality players and prospects -- but without creating a weak spot in the active roster or in the upcoming drafts or in the prospect pipeline. The loss of Bergeron would be relatively easy to cover, considering Boston's depth at the center position, and an elite winger would more than compensate for the loss of Ryder or Kobasew.

Bottom line: If Chiarelli can clear a bit of cap space, he can easily compete for free-agents-to-be without cutting deeply into the prospect pool. Given that the Bruins are going to be a top contender for the Cup, it would be crazy for him not to position himself for a major trade this season.

Winter Classic jersey revealed?

Ok, a couple of quick news tidbits:

- The official NHL Twitter feed published this photo of Tim Thomas being interviewed by Carrie Milbank [edit: Looks like the pic was taken down. It's been a bad week for Bettman. You can see the same photo here, as well as another glimpse here. Also, the Flyers officially unveiled their WC unis about half an hour ago.] Hmmmmm.... that's an interesting choice of threads for Timmy. Is this a sneak preview of the retro jersey the Bruins will wear at Fenway?

Uni fanatics will note that this is a slightly-altered version of the sweaters the Bruins wore from 1959 through 1967, Bobby Orr's rookie season. Interesting to see the anachronistic ties at the neck, and the use of a scripted logo similar to the one used in 1948-49. The Flyers also have the option to use a uniform from 1967, which would seem the logical choice.

- I'm going to call off the final round of this year's Hockey Hell series (the goalies). I'm in the middle of changing jobs and cities, and realistically I'm not going to put in the time to make that last entry happen. Let's salute this year's winners (read: losers) with whatever finger you deem most appropriate:

C Bobby Clarke
LW Jarkko Ruutu
RW Marty McSorley
D Bryan Marchment, Chris Pronger

How Badly Is Krejci Hurt?

The Matrix.

We've been asking ourselves that question for a couple of months, but it's hard not to notice that Krejci's play has diminished steadily since he started using "maintenance day" excuses for missing practice.

The timeline of Krejci's season is telling:

10/9 through 1/29
49 games
18-35-53
+25
5-11-16 on PP

1/30 - Excused from practice for "maintenance day"

1/31 - present
24 games
3-8-11
+9
0-0-0 on PP

Twice in the past two weeks -- the 11th and 25th of March -- Krejci was excused from practice, again with vague references to an injury but without specific explanation. On March 5th, coach Claude Julien broke up the line of Wheeler-Krejci-Ryder which had declined in productivity along with the rest of the team. Wheeler and Ryder continued to play well with other linemates, but Krecji faded to the third line. Perhaps more telling are his time-on-ice numbers, which have dropped sharply.

Of course the Bruins are unlikely to reveal anything, as they get KGB-level tight-lipped as April approaches. But there is clearly something wrong with Krejci's game, and it's obviously tied to the past couple of months (specifically, since he scored an OT game-winner against the Caps on 1/27). If he doesn't find his game soon, it's hard to imagine the Bruins will play the kind of 4-line hockey that dominated their opponents through the midway point of the season.

Do the Bruins REALLY need a defenseman?

Lots of scuttlebutt today surrounding the Bruins, who seem very likely to make a move before noon tomorrow. Most of the chatter concerns the following:

- Left wingers - Erik Cole, Keith Tkachuk
- Defensemen - Chris Pronger, Jordan Leopold, Tomas Kaberle, Ruslan Salei, Derek Morris, Pavel Kubina

The consensus seems to be that the Bruins will trade for a puck-moving defenseman (if the sheer volume of rumors is meaningful).

Here's what the Bruins are currently sporting at D:
1st pairing
Chara - Norris candidate, projects to set a career high in goal scoring.
Ward - Perhaps playing a role outside his ability, but he's one of the more reliable vets on the team.

2nd pairing
Wideman - Already working on a career high in scoring, top-10 in the league.
Ference - Despite injury troubles, has matured as a puck-mover and scored 1/2 ppg.

3rd pairing
Stuart - Has scored a career-high 5 goals so far, despite being a shutdown guy.
Hnidy - Adds a lot of grit at the back end of the lineup, not something to be taken for granted.

In addition, Claude Julien has the option of activating any of the following to fill holes along the blue line:
Hunwick - A natural defenseman who at one point was the team's most productive blueliner.
Axelsson and Bergeron - Forwards who play the point on the man-advantage.
Lashoff and Boychuk - Prospects currently in Providence, both having spent time in Boston recently.

So, what's missing here? The Bruins blueline corps features two top-quality point men, several hulking defensive defensemen, and plenty of sandpaper. Julien can pair Chara and Wideman for an All-Star quality offensive duo, or put out Chara and Stuart in a "prevent" situtation. For speed he can pair Hunwick with Ference. If things get rough he can rely on The Sherriff and Mental Ward.

This isn't to say the Boston blueline (see what I did there?) can't be upgraded -- Pronger and Kaberle could step right into that top pairing with Chara and look pretty scary. But how much would that improve the Bruins as a team? Chara and Pronger are 30 min/game players, and Wideman is highly productive at 25 per game... meaning there would be 35 minutes of total ice time remaining for Ference, Ward and Stuart.

It made sense at the beginning of the season for the Bruins to trade for a defenseman, but standout seasons from the majority of the defensive corps have eliminated the need for any drastic moves. Considering the sacrifice it would take to acquire an All-Star defenseman at the trade deadline (surely a productive roster player or high draft pick), the Bruins could be much more productive by acquiring a forward to provide scoring depth and veteran leadership. Going after a defenseman at this stage would be soooo 2008.

The Trade Deadline: A Plea For Sanity

My, what a difference a season can make.

This time last year, Peter Chiarelli played a conservative hand at the trade deadline -- no moves were made, as the team's biggest concern was to dump veteran salaries and make space for young talent.

Early this season, on the heels of an unexpected playoff berth, Bruins fans were talking about the possibility of making a long playoff run within 2-3 seasons. This year was to be a bridge between the past and future, and another road-ice playoff berth was the optimisitic outlook.

Now here we are reading articles speculating on the possibility that Chiarelli could make a blockbuster move for Chris Pronger, Keith Tkachuk or Erik Cole. All of these rumors assume that he would be willing to let go of promising young talent or high draft picks, and that the end-game would be a Stanley Cup run this spring.

Maybe it's time to stop and take a deep breath. We're moving a bit too fast, aren't we?

Some perspective: Phil Kessel (21), David Krecji (22) and Matt Hunwick (23) are all coming up for contract renewal this summer. The size and length of those contracts will set the landscape for the Chiarelli-era Bruins -- presumably for the next 3-5 years. At the same time, the Bruins will likely dump or cut the salaries of veterans Stephane Yelle, P.J. Axelsson and Shane Hnidy. And of course, in the process they'll work out a plan of succession for the goaltending position -- which is complicated by the fact that Tuukka Rask's contract is finished after next season.

Perhaps more importantly, next summer the Bruins will renegotiate contracts with Marc Savard, Milan Lucic, Blake Wheeler, Andrew Ference, Aaron Ward, Mark Stuart, Shawn Thornton and Petteri Nokelainen.

All of this means that the Bruins are, effectively, still in the middle of the rebuilding process. As good as they may be at present, only a handful of players are locked up through next summer. It would be unwise to move prospects or draft picks under the assumption that they're expendable, without knowing for certain whether key players such as Savard and Kessel will be around for much longer.

Of course, it's difficult not to see this season as a now-or-never opportunity to bring home the Cup, with the Bruins playing their best hockey in 35 years. But let's take a lesson from last year's Pens -- today's rental player is tomorrow's lost scoring depth. For a team that's got such a bright future, that might be the difference between a dynasty and a bunch of 8th-place finishes.

Warren Buffet, Preds fan.

"Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful." -- Warren Buffett, world's smartest investor.

Sign of the times: On Frozen Blog recounts the latest developments in the never-ending prattle over NHL relocation, expansion and/or contraction. As usual, pundits and "insiders" from the Great White North insist that any (or, in their best-case fantasies, every single one) of the Sunbelt franchises could make the decision to cut their financial losses and head northward to a "traditional" market. Presumably, this would involve renaming the team the "Jets" and signing Teemu Selanne.



In previous seasons, this cause celebre was bound up in a pointless mish-mash of discussion having to do with old-time rivalries, talent dilution and market demographics. The theory went something like this: hockey belongs in places where you might die of hypothermia.

But the market crash has blown this concept into epic proportions, with pundits coming out of the woodwork to speculate that it is now literally impossible for the NHL to sell its product in such hockey-wastelands as Atlanta and Miami. Here's the doomsday equation:
1) Hard-hit areas such as Florida cannot support a team with gate revenues.
2) Hard-hit ownership groups can no longer afford to wait on markets to develop.
3) The values of the American and Canadian dollars have changed drastically this decade.
=
Quotes like the following:
The upside for Canadian fans is that those economic woes could mean another team north of the border as owners look to the game's hotbeds as an economic salve. -- Kevin McGran in the Toronto Star

It's not shocking to see this turn in the discussion, considering there's long been a conservative movement afoot among Canadian fans resentful of the Americanization of the NHL. The economic crisis provides the perfect combination of fear and greed to fuel an argument that the league should simply stop trying to survive in sunny locations, and retract back into its previous strategy of northern-market-saturation.

But let's take a step back from the hysteria and think about this rationally.
-In the past 15 years, two Canadian franchises have relocated (Winnipeg and Quebec) and three more (Ottawa, Calgary and Edmonton) have been on the death-watch for economic reasons.
-In the meantime, two teams in traditional American markets (Pittsburgh and Buffalo) have filed for bankruptcy, while another (Hartford) relocated.
-Furthermore, at least two others (the Islanders and Devils) are failing at the gate but being floated by lucrative dealings on the business side.

So let's not get too hasty about the game's "hotbeds" being a magic bullet for the NHL's revenue problems.

What we're seeing are short-term answers being proposed for a long-term solution.
Fifteen years ago it seemed like a slam-dunk investment to put a team in the southern United States; and in markets that boasted a competitive team, that investment was fruitful.
Five years ago it seemed that half of the Canadian franchises might be doomed; Finals runs by each of the aggreived franchises put those rumors to rest.
Today it's come full circle -- the Sun Belt is being characterized as barren ground, and Canadian cities as a sure bet, at least until the next market cycle proves all of those assumptions wrong.

"Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful."


Just as Bettman's expansion bonanza of the 1990s proved to be a case of too-much-too-soon, it makes little sense to simply slash-and-burn fifteen years of market cultivation in the name of hockey tradition. Atlanta, Phoenix, Tampa and Miami are in the top 16 television markets in the United States; Hamilton, the largest available Canadian market other than Quebec City, is smaller than any of these and shares its television market with Toronto and at-risk Buffalo. Where's the sense in swapping one risky market for another, at an enormous expense?

For once, let's learn from the past. Instead of pursuing the obvious, ill-fated strategy of tagging along behind market predictors and putting teams in today's hot markets, the NHL should take a step back from the current depression and think about where it would like to stand in 20 years. In that time, franchises like Atlanta and Phoenix will surely figure out how to ice a team worth paying for (Step 1: Fire Waddell) and in the meantime they will cultivate a full generation of born-and-bred fans. They might still be the least-dependable American markets, but they'll give the NHL continued national recognition and television coverage instead of allowing it to regress back to a provincial B-sport akin to golf and figure skating.

Lightning Get A Kick In The Nuts From Bruins, Melrose, Their Own Goalie

What a day to be associated with the Tampa Bay Lightning.

First, Radim Vrbata leaves town after more or less saying that his career with the Lightning is causing him psychological distress.

Then, Barry Melrose publicly excoriates everyone from Len Barrie to Steve Stamkos. This guy is pissed about being a scapegoat, and is not afraid to say so. Furthermore he is a media professional, and therefore knows what to say if he wants to make headlines without setting off lawsuits or suspensions (Sean Avery, are you listening?).

Then, Vinny Lecavalier is forced to "lead" his team while sporting a first-class shiner on his left eye... courtesy of the notorious brawler Jochen Hecht. For the record, Hecht gave up 3 inches and 20 pounds in that matchup. He has had 4 fights in his 8 seasons, compared to Lecavalier's 18 fights in 9 seasons. Nice, Vinny.

Then, the Lightning get absolutely whipped by the Bruins. Yes, it was a 1-goal game with 17 seconds left. But the game confirmed that the Lightning are no longer a competitive team -- they looked timid, confused, psychologically broken. They are in a doormat death-spiral, when they ought to have been jostling for playoff positioning by now. If not for the Bruins' blink-of-an-eye 3-0 lead, which pretty much sucked the energy out of the contest, Boston might have won this game by 6 or 7 goals.

To top it off, goalie Mike Smith ripped his teammates after the game... offering the possibility that they might just be a "dumb team". Meanwhile, on the other side of the locker room, Rick Tocchet suggested he might dress only 8 skaters in the future. This is all eerily reminiscent of the Dallas Stars' locker-room implosion after they faced the Bruins last month... is Claude Julien using psychological warfare to crush the spirits of his opponents? Stay tuned.

What does all of this mean for the rest of us? First of all, it confirms that playoff berths must be earned, not bought. Tampa seems to have even less chemistry than last year's Sens and this year's Stars. Turns out there's a difference between building a Stanley Cup champion and casting for a bad horror flick.

But more importantly, it effectively takes the Lightning off the map for the rest of the season. It's inconceivable that, even given an entire season to try and turn things around, this team could get it together and make a run at the 8-seed. Sooooo... time to start thinking "fire sale" when you think of Tampa.

The Lightning have a slew of vets on contract for-this-year-only, including: Gary Roberts ($2.4m), Mark Recchi ($1.5m), Chris Gratton ($1.25m), Marek Malik ($1.25m), and Olie Kolzig ($2.5m). If this franchise has any common sense at all, it will unload all of the above before the trade deadline for draft picks and prospects. This would clear a large amount of cap space and allow Tampa to begin a true rebuild -- presumably with another #1 pick this summer.

But, like a star dying, a Lightning implosion/rebuild might affect the entire solar system. Roberts and Recchi could offer veteran leadership for young contenders like Boston and Chicago. Kolzig might conjure up one last run at glory for a desperate bubble team like Edmonton or New Jersey. Chris Gratton is as adept as anyone in the league at filling a jersey and collecting a paycheck, but might be willing to chip in some secondary scoring if asked nicely.

[update: Never mind about Gratton. He was placed on waivers, a pretty sure sign that he no longer carries trade value.]

Keep an eye on these guys as we get closer to the deadline... it's not like they've been afraid to pull the trigger in the past.

Gaborik to Boston -- In Three Easy (And Highly Unlikely) Steps!

Since this rumor won't go away, let's address it head-on.

DISCLAIMER: I think it's quite farfetched that the Bruins would pursue Gaborik at this time. Hopefully they have learned from the cautionary tales of teams which threw the proverbial kitchen sink at a handful of individuals rather than building a deep, well-rounded team. Furthermore, it seems to me that the B's are at least 1-2 full seasons away from making a major free-agent acquisition toward a Cup run, and by that time they will probably have developed at least a couple of reliable 40-goal scorers from within. But for now I will accept the hypothesis that Pete Chiarelli considers Gaborik the next step toward Stanley Cup glory.



Step #1: Trade or waive Manny Fernandez

This is the toughest part of the equation, because there is no "ideal" option for making it happen. Fernandez carries very little trade value due to his injury history and less-than-insipring comeback effort so far this season. The Bruins would be well-served to wait until he strings together a few decent games and shop him for some kind of return in futures -- either a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick or a prospect from some desperate team. But that risks the possibility that he could be re-injured or simply melt down before the trigger is pulled... or that nobody would take the bait, in which case the only option would be the waiver wire. I believe that if Fernandez were waived he would be snatched up by the Avs, who have the cap space and the need for a decent puckstopper. In this case the Bruins would lose a $4.3 million, former #1 goaltender and get nothing in return.



Step #2: Offer either Phil Kessel or Blake Wheeler for Gaborik

Another tough decision, as Kessel and Wheeler are both excellent long-term projects for the Bruins and appear to be making large strides this season. But these are the only two players on the roster who would be suitable returns for Gaborik, carry a large enough salary ($2m+) to clear significant cap room, AND would not be considered a crippling loss to the Bruins franchise.



Step #3: Negotiate a $7m-ish/year contract

This is the biggest risk of all for Boston. The truth is that Gaborik is worth between 7 and 8 million on the open market, yet he has reportedly turned down a long-term offer from the Wild in the range of $10m/year. Conventional wisdom says that he's stonewalling the Wild regardless of their offer sheets and will take less money to play elsewhere. But as Pittsburgh found out this summer, conventional wisdom is often misguided. It's entirely possible that Gaborik, upon being traded to the Bruins, would stonewall Chiarelli as well and simply leave town as a free agent. In that case the Bruins would have traded a quasi-#1 goaltender and a future star forward for half a season of Gaborik. Bottom line: Gaborik MUST be receptive to a $7-8 million multi-year contract with Boston before any move is made.


Of course, this would have a massive long-term impact on the Bruins roster and cap situation. Gaborik and Chara would combine for a cap impact of $15m/year, and the Bruins would be squeezed against the ceiling for the forseeable future. Not to mention that if Gaborik is injured, underperforms or simply leaves town the Bruins will have lost significant futures in either Kessel or Wheeler.

The upside, of course, would be the addition of the first 50-goal threat since Cam Neely. It's much more difficult to win a Cup without at least one top-level scoring threat, so the addition of Gaborik would at least superficially signal a serious commitment to building a top-quality team.

Overall quality of this trade for the Bruins: 7 on a scale of 10
Likelihood of it actually happening: 4 on a scale of 10

Bruins Training Camp: Top 5 Storylines

1) Two's company, three's a crowd
Coming into camp, we knew that Tim Thomas and Manny Fernandez would be fighting for the starting spot in goal. What we didn't know was that Tuukka Rask would emerge as the leading contender.

As if it's not complicated enough already, the Bruins are now operating with a 1A/1B/1C goalie tandem. Thomas and Fernandez have both looked rusty at times, while Rask appears cool and confident against big-league snipers. It's unlikely that the Finn will find himself in the driver's seat before the New Year, but he's giving Bruins management a good reason to take a Habs-like approach to their goaltending controversy.

2) Trade coming down the tracks
Hubhockey.com quotes Pete Chiarelli as saying there is a "better than 50 percent" chance that the Bruins will make a salary-clearing trade in the next few days. Phil Kessel's name is being floated as a possible piece of trade bait, though I suspect there would be a minor revolt in the fanbase if Kessel were traded so early in his development. Peter Schaefer, on the other hand, is probably keeping a packed suitcase handy -- if Chiarelli can't find a trade parter, waiving Schaefer wouldn't be out of the question.

[update: The Boston Herald has dropped Marc Savard's name as a possible casualty in a blockbuster trade. This would be not only shocking, but senseless for a host of reasons -- Savard nearly led the league in assists last season on a defensive-minded team, Patrice Bergeron is still a question mark as #1 center, the Ryder/Savard combo would be gone, and frankly it just doesn't make sense for the Bruins to make a blockbuster trade right now.]

3) Lucic struggles
Milan Lucic is all the rage in Boston these days, with Cam Neely comparisons being thrown about quite liberally among the fans and media. So the big winger's lack of production in the preseason might be a damper on the hype -- perhaps it wasn't such a good idea to assume that the 19-year-old would enjoy a Hall of Fame career before being crippled by Ulf Samuelsson.

In 4 preseason games, including an 8-3 thrashing of the Habs, Lucic has one secondary assist. That's not exactly top-line production, and suggests that extra defensive attention might become a factor in the dreaded sophomore season. Keep an eye on Looch's development, because it will figure into expectations not only for this season, but the Bruins' long-term outlook as well. The Bruins Hockey Blog suggests we might still be a year or two away from seeing the "real" Lucic.

4) Wheeler rolling
A counterbalance to Lucic's struggles is the encouraging play of Blake Wheeler. The young winger, who ditched the Coyotes organization to play in Boston, has been turning heads with a goal and three assists so far in the preseason. By all appearances, Wheeler has earned at least a brief opportunity to impress at the NHL level, probably displacing Jeremy Reich as a 4th-line winger. As a #5 overall pick in 2004 (just behind some guys named Ovechkin, Malkin, Barker and Ladd) Wheeler was expected to be a future All-Star -- perhaps we're seeing a turning point in Bruins history. The Bear Cave details Wheeler's chances of snagging a roster spot.

5) Ghosts of Injuries Past
Like the goaltending issue, this storyline has been played to death in the media already. Nevertheless, B's fans will be on the injury watch for the first several weeks of the season to ensure that several key players are able to recover from the injury-riddled 07-08 campaign. The Bruins Hockey Blog reports that Zdeno Chara is expected to suit up tonight in Montreal, testing his injured shoulder for the first time this preseason. In the same game, Manny Fernandez will continue to work on his recovery from IR, and of course Patrice Bergeron will be on the watch list all season to ensure he's not the next Lindros.

Fortunately, the Bruins don't face the Flyers until February.