Death Watch Update: Stretch Run Edition

This is going to be a much more frequent feature over the next two weeks. With only about 10 games to play per team, the playoff bubble is quickly shrinking.

DEAD

These teams are toast, and probably wishing they'd lost more often for draft purposes.

Islanders

Thrashers

Lightning

Senators

Leafs

Avalanche

Coyotes

RISEN ZOMBIE-LIKE FROM THE GRAVE

Blues - WTF? These guys were out of contention by training camp, and were pronounced "DEAD" on the very first Death Watch in January. Since then they've been winning 3 out of every 4 games, and are now only a single victory away from the 8th seed. Their 3-game series against Columbus will have the atmosphere of the tournament in "Bloodsport".

ON THE DEATH WATCH

Kings - They've been tenacious, but the clock is running out. Their next 4 games -- Blues, Stars, Preds, Stars -- are all must-wins. After that it's a home-and-home against Phoenix. That stretch will either make or break LA's season.


Sabres - It's been tough to watch this train wreck after such a spunky season from Buffalo. A 1-5-1 stretch in March is poison, especially when it involves two losses to Ottawa. This week's games against Florida and Montreal are a last-chance opportunity for the slumping Sabres.

Stars - Yeah, they're only 3 points out of the 8th seed. But the Stars have an unfavorable schedule and just lost Brad Richards. They're already staring up the bracket at 4 other bubble teams, so there is almost no room for error as this team tries to right its losing streak.

SOMEHOW STILL KICKING

Panthers - This might be one of the NHL's best stories of the season, but also its most under-reported. GM Jacques Martin made an incredibly ballsy move at the trade deadline by not dealing Bouwmeester, gambling that the Panthers could make the playoffs and possibly convince their stud defenseman to give it another year or three in Miami. Today the Cats are only a point behind Montreal for that precious 8th seed.

Predators - If the most under-reported story isn't the Panthers, maybe the Preds deserve that title. Quietly, they're on an 8-2-3 streak that's got them in the 8th seed... for now. Nashville, virtually devoid of marquee players and led by obscurities like JP Dumont and Pekka Rinne, has a brutal schedule down the stretch.

Ducks - It's time for someone to be a hero in Anaheim, which fights for its playoff life tomorrow night in Nashville. The Ducks are on a mini-streak (3-0-0) but are one of the league's least consistent teams. Anaheim has to avoid the too-predictable losing streak, or they're going to be done in short order.

Wild - Hobbled by injuries, the Wild are going to count on Marian Gaborik's return to spark them into the playoffs. An ill-timed road trip and a schedule full of desperate teams won't make it any easier for Minnesota, who will need a good push to overcome the other Western bubble teams.

How the NHL loses fans (or, Why I skipped the game today)

Of blogging's few benefits, the most valuable is knowing that the whole world has access to your experiences. I'm writing this in the hope that it'll trickle back, somehow, to someone with real influence over the operations of an NHL franchise.

Some context

I am a 20-something, middle-class male with a college degree and a white-collar job. I have a family of 4 -- my two sons are 10 years old and 3 months old. I live in southern Tennessee, roughly 90 minutes from Nashville and 3 hours from Atlanta. As I understand the NHL's marketing strategy, all of this makes me a juicy target for their product. As a matter of fact, I'm pretty sure I'm practically the bull's eye.

For the past 15 years I have been a die-hard hockey fan. My family and I have poured time and money into the game: holding minor-league season tickets (~$2000/yr), subscribing to Center Ice ($170/yr), own half a dozen team jerseys (~$1000), traveling to see at least a couple of games per year (~$300), regularly buying NHL video games ($50 each), and purchasing all sorts of assorted merchandise. I pay attention to the sponsors. I talk about hockey to my friends and family. I spend too much time on message boards. I blog. Earlier today, my wife even gave me a Bruins jersey and two t-shirts for Valentine's Day.

As I understand the NHL's marketing strategy, this puts me in "jackpot" territory. They make a LOT of money off me each year.

The plan

Today the Bruins play in Nashville, the only time this season I will have the opportunity to see them within a convenient driving distance of my home. Earlier this season I traveled to Atlanta to see the Bruins; I have given some casual thought to seeing them in New York on a business trip next month; so needless to say, my ticket purchase for this game should have been a "gimme".

The plan: I would buy three tickets so that I could take my wife and sons (littlest being too young to need a ticket) to see this game. In the process, I'd pay for parking, concessions and souveniers. I was cool with that.

What went wrong

I might be a fan, but I'm not a fool.

Three lower bowl tickets: $128 x 3 = $384
or
Three upper bowl tickets: $55 x 3 = $165
Convenience charge: $8.70 x 3 = $26.10
Ticketfast charge: $2.50 *why am I paying to print the tickets on MY computer using MY paper?
Parking: ~$10
Concessions: ~ $30
Souveniers: ~ $30
Total cost: Anywhere from $264 to $483

That's right, I am supposed to think it's worthwhile to spend as much on 2 1/2 hours of entertainment as I could use to buy an IPhone or a week of summer camp for my son. I am supposed to shell out this much money on a franchise that advertises Jason Arnott and Shea Weber as its "stars". Did you know that Jason Arnott is still in the league?

I'm a fan, but I'm not a fool.

Salt in the wound

Remember when I mentioned that my Valentine's Day present was a Bruins jersey? My wife, who is incredibly supportive of what has become a very taxing hockey obsession, contacted the Bruins organization weeks ago to try and arrange for the jersey to be signed by the team. The plan was simply to meet a team representative tonight in Nashville (this was back when the plan was still to go to the game) and have it passed around the bus or locker room.

First, she got a run-around from a front office rep, who passed her along to one of the team's travel coordinators... who turned out to be another dead end. She went from one member of the organization to another, trying to find a sympathetic ear, even going so far as to have a Facebook discussion with one of the ice girls. All of this led nowhere. I can understand that, in this day and age, there's a lot of cynicism when it comes to autographs. I understand that an autograph request is not a pressing issue for a team which is, after all, more concerned with multimillion dollar TV contracts and corporate ticket sales.

But the double-frustration of being priced out of the game AND having a simple request ingored sends a message, loud and clear, that my family and I are not valued customers.

Consequences

Needless to say, I am writing this from my couch at home because I no longer have any intention of going to the game. Nor will I see it on television, because the league blacks out Preds games where I live. So I will not watch the game at all -- instead I'll do something completely different with my evening.

The obvious cost of this experience is that the Predators and the NHL immediately lose money. I won't be handing over my hard-earned dollars, nor will I be paying any attention to their sponsors or telling my friends about the great experience I had. If anything, the opposite will turn out to be true.

But the long-term cost will be even worse. My 10-year-old, that most prized of targets for the NHL marketing folks, has told me not to worry because he's "not that into hockey anyway". He has a Preds jersey from his last birthday, but can't name a single player and has never asked for any other merchandise. He's trying to memorize the names of NFL teams because that's what has taken his interest.

I have no connection, financial or emotional, to the Predators and don't intend to form one if I never see their games. I can continue to follow the Bruins long-distance, but that means I won't be buying tickets... ever. The Preds average about 14,500 fans per game, good for 28th in the league (ahead of the Islanders and Thrashers, who at least bother to offer $10 nosebleeds). My family will never add to that total.

So I'm sitting here on my couch at home, wondering... why bother? The league obviously doesn't need me, so do I really need it?

I'm going to take some time off from this blog to try and figure out an answer to that question. Maybe in a few days I'll come back. I'm thinking probably not.

In the meantime, if you know anyone close to the NHL or either the Bruins or Predators organization, I'd appreciate you passing along this story. I'd like to think the NHL isn't losing its fans for nothing.

Can the Bruins Trade Fernandez?

Aside from the all-important return of Patrice Bergeron, the biggest issue facing the Bruins this offseason is a brewing goalie controversy.

In the red corner, standing 5'11" and weighing 201 lbs (think Stay-Puft), we have Tim Thomas:

- 34 years old, injury history includes minor tweaks to the groin and knees
- Career GAA of 2.80, Career Save % of .913
- Style of play similar to that of a beached dolphin trying to flop back into the water
- Career highlight - Led the league in save % most of the 2007-08 season, and was the winner of the All-Star game.
- Cap hit of $1.1M, and it's a contract year.

In the blue corner, standing 6'0" and weighing 185 lbs, we have Manny Fernandez:
- 34 years old, recovering from devastating knee injury
- Career GAA of 2.49, Career Save % of .912
- Style of play switched to butterfly late in career
- Career highlight - Won William Jennings trophy in 2007, along with Nicklas Backstrom.
- Cap hit of $4.33M, and it's a contract year.

With Tuukka Rask waiting in the wings, it's clear that one or both of these guys will not be returning next season. Therefore the Bruins are left with a difficult decision: to platoon the two goalies in a 1/1A system, or to cut one loose and hope to get a little return on their assets.

In this blogger's opinion, it's a pretty clear decision: unless Fernandez comes out and rocks our world, his salary hit makes him a liability to the growth of the team. Provided Thomas continues to flip-flop his way to a winning record, he has earned the starting spot and should be kept on the team.

So, the REAL question is: who might be willing to trade for Manny Fernandez? Any potential suitors would have to meet three conditions:
1) Lack of a legit starting goalie, or at least the need for a Plan B in case of implosion
2) A decent shot at the playoffs, and therefore motivation to trade for a B-list starter
3) Something to give back to the Bruins in return... particularly a #2 defenseman or high draft picks

Crunch the numbers and you get this short list of potential suitors:
Colorado
Montreal (if Price underwhelms)
Nashville (ditto Ellis)
Ottawa

It's a safe bet that the Bruins wouldn't swing such a trade with a division rival, so Montreal and Ottawa are off the list. The only two teams remaining who make sense would be Colorado and Nashville.

Colorado - With a ridiculously soft duo of Raycroft/Budaj, the Avs are lucky to be in the playoff hunt at all. They have enough cap space to absorb Manny's salary, but not much in the way of useful commodities to return in a trade. Their most obvious option would be to move Jordan Leopold, who will be a UFA at the end of the season. The Bruins might be willing to bite on that offer.

Nashville - Preds fans are hoping that Dan Ellis continues to overachieve and a trade would be unnecessary. But if his sophomore season brings him back down to earth, Nashville will need to move quickly to stay in the playoff race. The Bruins might be willing to accept a straight-up trade in order to get some cap relief (the Preds have a cushion of $12.4M), or they could make an offer for contract-year veteran blueliner Greg de Vries. Ellis would make a nice #2 goalie in order to buy time for Rask in Providence.

Of course, Fernandez could dismiss all of this moot speculation by having a career season... but allowing 2 goals on 12 shots against the Habs in the exhibition opener wasn't a good sign that he's coming on strong this season. It's in the Bruins' best interests to move him quickly, to reduce the chance of losing him to injury or failing to find a suitor later in the season.