How Much Have Injuries Hurt the Bruins?

No way I'm going to try and crank out a preview for today's 1pm game against St. Louis -- the game would be over before I finished writing. Suffice it to say, the best team in the East versus the worst team in the West is something of a mismatch.

The Bruins can't complain too much about injuries when they look at the Blues' IR list. Nevertheless, there's no question that they've lost a step since the latest round of injuries (Kessel, Lucic, Wideman) took hold. Now, it's worth taking a step back and remembering that for most of the season Boston has missed the talents of solid second-line players Patrice Bergeron and Marco Sturm, as well as quality defensemen Andrew Ference and Aaron Ward. The Bruins squad which has taken the Eastern Conference by storm has done so mostly on the backs of their first (Lucic-Savard-Kessel) and third (Ryder-Krejci-Wheeler) lines, with a huge dose of support from AHL call-ups.

But there's a huge difference between losing Bergeron/Sturm (depth scoring, frequently injured), as opposed to being deprived of Kessel/Lucic (elite scoring, dependably healthy). Here's the difference it has made so far:

The Hard Numbers

The Bruins remain one of the tougher matchups in the East, but their offensive numbers have come back down to earth.

Record With Kessel and Looch: 31-7-4
Record Without: 2-1-0

Goals Per Game With: 3.67
GPG Without: 2.0

Shots/Game With: 29.8
Shots/Game Without: 26.7

Effect on Teammates

Pity Marc Savard -- one day he's skating with Kessel and Lucic on the NHL's best-rounded line, the next he's centering P.J. Axelsson and Chuck Kobasew.

Savard With: 42 games played, 14-38-54, 2.6 shots per game, +29
Savard Without: 3gp, 2-0-2, 3.7 spg, +1

Note that Savard is shooting the puck much more often, and therefore scoring goals, but that his overall production is down as he's being forced to play "out of character".

But then there are the changes that have been made deeper in the lineup:

First line:
Kobasew since being promoted: 0-3-3, 6 shots, +1
These are good numbers for a third-liner, but Kobie's lack of elite offensive skills makes him nearly useless as a scorer. 6 shots in 3 games doesn't replace Kessel.

Axelsson since being promoted: 0-0-0, 5 shots, +1
Yeah, that includes PP time.

Second line:
The line of Ryder-Krecji-Wheeler has suffered the most, since they are now effectively the first line (in terms of expectations, anyway) and are seeing much more defensive attention.

Since becoming the "first" line:
Krejci: 1-1-2 (all against Montreal), 5 shots, even
Wheeler: 0-1-1 (against Montreal), 6 shots, even
Ryder: 0-1-1 (against Montreal), 5 shots, even
Needless to say, their past two games have not been much fun for this line.

Third line:
The domino effect continues to the third line where Stephane Yelle finds himself centering the AHL duo of Petteri Nokelainen and Byron Bitz. Deprived of his veteran linemates, Yelle has had "0"s all across his stat line -- in fact, the entire line has combined for 0 points and only 5 shots.

Fourth line:
Early in the season, the Bruins had a bread-and-butter fourth line that was used to maintain a strong forecheck while the other team's top scorers frustrated themselves with scrumming in the corners and dumping the puck in from the red line. At this point the fourth line is basically a rotating carousel of AHL grinders, with Shawn Thornton as the "regular". They've had mixed results -- Martin St. Pierre scored the winner against the Isles, but made the crucial mistake on the Caps' game-winner only two nights later.

The Bright Side

Actually, there are quite a few positives to report. Neither of the Bruins' special-teams units (PP 3 of 12, PK 10 of 12) has been underperforming under the most trying circumstances. The defense has held fairly steady, giving up only 4 goals in 3 games.

And most importantly, the record is still better than even.

Word out of Boston is that Bergeron and Lucic will wait until after the All-Star break to return. In the meantime, the Bruins face two non-playoff teams (St. Louis and Toronto), and so the injuries might not have much of an effect on their place in the standings. The schedule for the next month thereafter is much tougher, so a quick return for each player will be key.

But for the time being, we're going to see how this team handles adversity. Based on last year's gritty charge into the playoffs, that might be the brightest side of all.

Coming soon: What in the world to do with the All-Star game...

Providence vs. Hamilton: Stuff To Look Out For

It's a battle of the M.A.S.H. units tonight in Boston. The NHL's most active rivalry will be missing, oh, a few names you may recognize.

Injury rundown
Boston: Phil Kessel will be out for about a month with mono. Patrice Bergeron is skating but has no timetable for return. Marco Sturm is done for at least the regular season with knee surgery. Milan Lucic has simply been AWOL for the past several games (hopefully he didn't share a water bottle with Kessel). Andrew Ference is getting closer to returning from his broken leg. Manny Fernandez is out tonight with an unspecified injury, but expected to return soon. Shane Hnidy took a puck in the face but is expected to play with a visor.

Montreal: Carey Price will sit with a "lower body injury" (aka groin pull). Saku Koivu is close to returning from a foot injury, but won't play tonight. Alex Tanguay could miss up to 6 weeks with a bum shoulder. Christopher Higgins also has an injured shoulder, but won't come back until after the All-Star break. Mathieu Dandenault is out indefinitely with a broken arm. Georges Laraque is still out with a groin injury.

Montreal's been dealing with their injury issues for a bit longer than Boston, so their callups have had a bit more time to gel with the rest of the team. Prospects like Kyle Chipchura and Matt D'Agostini have become quasi-regular players for the Habs, while Max Pacioretti and Yannick Weber are still finding their place on the roster (Pacioretti has been skating on the top line).

Meanwhile the Bruins have been racking up frequent-flier miles this week, sending Matt Lashoff back to Providence and recalling Martin St. Pierre, Byron Bitz, Martins Karsums, and Kevin Regan. Goalie phenom Tuukka Rask was recalled for one game and sent back down in order to get playing time instead of riding the pine.

Got all that?

Lines? We don't need no stinkin' lines: To say the least, it's going to be a hectic night for Claude Julien as he has to completely reassemble his lineup and try to manage line changes on home ice. It's a fool's errand to try and predict what he'll do, but here's a shot in the dark at what the B's lines might look like:

Kobasew-Savard-Karsums
Wheeler-Krejci-Ryder
Axelsson-Yelle-St. Pierre
Thornton-Nokelainen-Bitz

Yikes. This is starting to feel a lot like last season. But then again, if it weren't for last season's injury issues we wouldn't have discovered guys like David Krejci and Looch. Que sera sera.

Wait, some players will actually be available?: Among those actually able to dress for the game, expect the Bruins to lean most heavily on Marc Savard, Krejci and Zdeno Chara for production. One of the advantages to having good centers is that they can make nearly any linemate into an offensive contributor. Look for Kobasew and Karsums to charge the net hard and take advantage of Savard's playmaking wizardry, and Krejci's #1A line to get some extra ice time to continue their torrid streak.

As for Chara, the Bruins simply need him to be a threat from the blue line. With reduced skill in the forward ranks, Chara's slapshot can give his teammates a little extra breathing room and ideally set up some rebound opportunities. Whether or not he tallies on the scoresheet, Chara needs to have an active game.

Goalie matchup: Looks like it'll be Tim Thomas vs. Jaroslav Halak. Goalies can be the difference in a close game, etc.

The big picture: Winning a rivalry game is great, but there's more at stake in this game. The Bruins and Habs are two of the hottest teams in the league, and separated by 10 points for the division title. It's a safe bet the Bruins are going to come back down to earth soon, so a 6-game lead would be a very reassuring cushion against the Habs' winning ways. If Montreal takes this game, the pressure on Boston will ramp up significantly. Also, the hot Capitals (who lost to the Habs the other day) are still pushing to catch up to the #1 seed. The winner of this game gets a lot of marbles.