How Awesome Is This Game Going To Be?

The Bruins host the Sharks tomorrow. How awesome will it be? It'll be this awesome:

- Boston leads the Sharks by 6 points in the overall standings, but San Jose has 4 games in hand. Therefore, this matchup could very well determine the eventual President's Trophy winner.

- This is the first, and probably the only time this regular season that the conference leaders will play head-to-head.

- San Jose is mired in a "slump" (loosely defined) involving a couple of OT losses to playoff bubble teams. Boston has split a pair of OT games in its past two contests. Both teams are facing long road trips ahead and could really use a boost in confidence.

- This will be the second time that Joe Thornton has returned to Boston since the infamous trade two years ago.

- The first time he returned, Thornton was ejected after two minutes for this illegal hit.



- Goaltenders Tim Thomas and Evgeni Nabokov are 2nd and 5th, respectively, in GAA among goaltenders who have played 30+ games, and 1st and 12th respectively in save %. Yet both struggle to be widely considered top-10 at their position.

- These are the second- and third-highest-scoring teams in the league (the Wings are #1).

- These are the first- and third-stingiest defenses in the league (the Wild are #2).

- Marc Savard and Thornton are possibly the best passers in the league, along with Sidney Crosby.

- Four defensemen -- Zdeno Chara and Dennis Wideman for Boston, Dan Boyle and Rob Blake for the Sharks -- are in the top-15 scorers among defensemen.

- Boston and San Jose are 4th and 5th, respectively, among all power plays. San Jose has the league's 4th-best penalty kill whereas the Bruins are 10th.

- 6 of the league's top 10 +/- ratings can be found on these rosters.

- San Jose's Joe Pavelski and Boston's Stephane Yelle are 6th and 7th, respectively, in blocked shots. That's right, even the shot-blocking defensive forwards are elite in this game!

- The only bummer about this game is injuries -- former Shark Marco Sturm will not get the chance to face off against his former club. Michael Ryder will join Sturm on injured reserve after undergoing surgery to repair his fractured orbital bone. Bruins defenseman Aaron Ward is a gametime decision, but likely to return after missing a game due to the flu. The Sharks will be missing defenseman Brad Lukowich and geriatric chatterbox Jeremy Roenick.

- Both teams have suffered a bit from mid-season fatigue, so perhaps it's a good thing that they've both been idle since Saturday.

It's been the hottest ticket in hockey for months, ever since it become obvious that the Eastern Conference was a one-horse race and that the Sharks were set for a franchise-best season. Expect a lot of media talk about Stanley Cup previews and "setting the tone", but the coaches will undoubtedly do their best to maintain focus on getting 2 points in the here and now.

Regular-season hockey doesn't get much better than this!

Weekend Links

This might be the hardest week of the season for the Bruins -- a 1pm matinee tomorrow against Philly, hosting their conference-leading counterpart San Jose on Tuesday, then off to New Jersey for the beginning of a 5-game road swing. I've stopped trying to predict how this team will respond... I'm just gonna kick up my feet and watch some great hockey.

Your weekend poutpourri:

Today's saddest story: Manny Legace was waived by the Blues. This guy is like a Western Conference answer to Tim Thomas. The league needs more old-school goalies.

Behind The Net has the top 25 fights of the year, as voted by hockeyfights.com users. Thornton/Cote is #2!

Pensblog is always a great source of chatter, but a thread about Malkin and bribery is just a goldmine. Definitely follow the Puck Daddy link.

Leafs fans love ragging on village idiot Damien Cox, but this is taking it to an entirely new level of throughness. Gotta hand it to Cox, he's professional enough not to respond with an anonymous, obscenity-laden rant.

If you think Cox-bashing is getting vicious, check out Melrose Rocks' demolition of Eklund.

If you like hockey, chances are you also like drinking. Here's both.

Hockey officiating is the best in pro sports? Discuss amongst yourselves.

Blueland Chronicle has discovered one of the Predators' awesome television ads, and rightfully identifies an example of how to market the NHL in a non-traditional market.

On Frozen Blog is one of the best-written blogs out there.

ESPN asked: who's the biggest whiner in the league? Guess who won?

Death Watch: R.I.P Leafs

They managed to hold out till February, but it's time to add the Maple Leafs to the "Dead" list.

Wednesday's brutal 5-0 whipping by the Sabres was the last nail in the coffin for Toronto, who now sit 11 points out of the playoffs with 30 games to play. The Leafs would need to go 22-8 over that stretch in order to reach 91 points, the bare-minimum threshold for making the playoffs since the introduction of the shootout. Considering they only have 19 wins to date, that seems like too tall an order for this gang.

The season won't get any easier for Brian Burke, who is poised to be a seller at the trade deadline. Leading scorer Nik Antropov and top defenseman Tomas Kaberle are the most frequently-cited items on the trading block, though it's hard to imagine any of the Leafs are truly untouchable. Dark days ahead for a franchise that is lacking in leadership and direction.

Perhaps the worst part of their demise is the anitclimax of Curtis Joseph's career. Vesa Toskala has been arguably the worst #1 goaltender in the league, with a .883 save percentage, and young Justin Pogge has been shelled behind an uninspired defense. Yet the once-mighty CuJo will still be the odd man out in Toronto, watching from the press box as his career dies a slow and silent death.

Updated Dead List:
Maple Leafs
Senators
Blues
Lightning
Islanders
Thrashers

Can Anyone Catch the Bruins?

Before you read, let me provide a disclaimer: I hate cocky fans who think their team cannot lose. I hate fans who jinx their own team. I hate announcers who say "shutout" with 10 minutes left in the game. The point of this analysis is not to ruin my own team down the stretch.

Nevertheless, we're getting close to that part of the season where we can cautiously project end-game scenarios for each team. Like the guy on CNN who plays with the map on Election Night, we can "call" certain races before all the votes are all tallied. With that in mind, I'm going to call the Eastern Conference race in favor of Boston against every team other than Washington and New Jersey.

What makes this decision interesting is that Washington has a 3-point advantage over the Devils (which is very significant when there is so much ground to cover), but the Devils have played one fewer game and still have two head-to-heads against Boston. In that respect, New Jersey is currently in a better position to make a charge for the Eastern title. For this analysis, I will ignore the head-to-head games (too many W/L scenarios to track) but I will include the Devils' games-played advantage.

Here are a few scenarios to help you handicap the possibility of a last-minute finish:

IMPLOSION: The Bruins inexplicably pull a Senators and fall off the face of the earth. They go 10-20 over their last 30 games.
To catch the Bruins:
Washington must still have a winning record at 16-14.
New Jersey must go 17-12-1, a very respectable stretch run.

MEDIOCRITY: For whatever reason, the Bruins lose their mojo and go an ordinary 15-15.
To catch the Bruins:
Washington would need to go 21-9, considerably better than their current win%.
New Jersey would need to go 22-7-1, or roughly the same win% as the Bruins have this season.

SLIGHT DROPOFF: Boston runs into some tougher competition and goes 20-10, a slight slowdown from their current pace.
To catch the Bruins:
Washington must go 26-4 to tie. Um...
New Jersey must go 27-2-1. Either of these would be legendary comebacks.

EVEN KEEL: Boston just keeps plugging along at its current rate, going 22-8. Based on recent results, this is the most likely scenario.
To catch the Bruins:
The Caps would need a 28-2 record to tie.
New Jersey would need a 29-0-1 streak, challenging the 1979-80 Flyers' record 35-game undefeated streak.

EVEN BETTER: Somehow, the Bruins actually step up their game and go 25-5. Neither the Caps nor Devils could mathematically catch up, even if they won all their remaining games.

Projecting forward:
For every Boston win, and for every Caps and Devils loss, the likelihood of a comeback drops significantly. If the Bruins can maintain a 10-point gap entering their 2/28 game against Washington, a win in that game would effectively clinch the conference.

If that were the case, Boston would play the final 6 weeks of their schedule without any pressure to jockey for playoff positioning. Their only motivation for winning would be to try and get the #1 overall seed from San Jose, to hone their execution in advance of the playoffs, and to keep the roster as healthy and productive as possible.

Bruins vs. Flyers: Stuff To Look Out For

- Seriously, how are these teams meeting for the first time in February? It's more than an annoyance -- since the Bruins and Flyers face off four times in the next seven weeks, you better believe this is going to be one of those "message" games with plenty of extracurriculars after the whistles. And when that happens between the Bruins and Flyers, you know it's going to be a long night.

- Speaking of which, this is the first time that Patrice Bergeron will face the Flyers since being run into the boards and nearly dying right in front of 20,000 people. That's your mainstream-media storyline of the day.

- The Flyers are 1-for-23 on the power play over the past four games. Oh, and those were against Atlanta, Florida, Tampa and St. Louis. Ouch.

- Martin Biron is a ridiculous 8-0-1 in his past 10 starts against Boston. Yet Biron seems to have lost his job to Antero Niittymaki. Starting only once in the past 3 weeks, Biron looks to be a permanent backup... which has lead to public speculation that he's no longer part of the Flyers' plans. Coach John Stevens has an intriguing decision tonight when he chooses a starter -- and you better believe the press is going to be reading between the lines.

- The Bruins are still quasi-healthy, missing only Marco Sturm (done for the season) to injury. Matt Hunwick is still ill and won't make the trip, but some time off might be good for the kid who's struggling to find his game. Manny Fernandez should be back on the bench.

- The Flyers have been missing Danny Briere for a while and have adjusted to his absence already. Their blue line is also dinged up, with stud Braydon Coburn and the notorious Randy Jones as day-to-day decisions.

- A great chance for a revenge game by Bruins castoffs Andrew Alberts and Glen Metropolit. There'll probably be some chatter among the players, and Metropolit would make a good shootout gamble against Tim Thomas.

Otherwise it's your typical mid-season Bruins/Flyers bloodbath.

Death Watch Update

The Death Watch has been strangely quiet these past few weeks, as several teams are pulling a mid-season David Blaine act. Here's a look at how things have shaken out since the All-Star Game:

DEAD
Nothing to see here. Move along.

Islanders
Thrashers
Lightning
Blues
Senators

ON THE DEATH WATCH
It would take a Herculean effort for these teams to make the playoffs... but that's why they play the games!

Maple Leafs - On 1/14 I laid down an ultimatum: the Maple Leafs must win 4 of their 8 remaining games in January or be declared "dead". True to form, they racked up a record of 3-2-2, the equivalent of 4 wins but somehow less impressive. Nevertheless, they picked up 8 critical points and will play meaningful games for at least another couple of weeks.

Kings - It's a little unsettling that the Kings are still in the playoff hunt this late in the season. They're 6 points out of the final Western seed, with a logjam of teams ahead of them. Three consecutive wins against conference competition has kept the young Kings alive, but they dropped the first of 5 games on their eastern road trip. Keep an eye on them this week for signs of flameout.

Predators - The Preds nearly coughed up their shot at the playoffs last month, finishing January with an ugly 1-4-0 streak. A key win over Edmonton has temporarily lifted their spirits, but their next 4 games are against key playoff-position competitors. This could make or break the Preds.

Avalanche - How are these guys not dead yet? Despite the second-worst record in the West and having lost 7 of 8, Colorado is a mere 6 points out of the playoffs. It's unfathomable that this crew could actually pull it off, but for the time being they still have a fighting chance at making the postseason cut. Missing both Sakic and Forsberg will hurt them on the ice, but at least they won't have to listen to those stories about the '96 Finals again.

STILL KICKING
Your playoff dark-horses, scrapping and clawing for a shot at Stanley.

Canucks - Oof. Losing 10 of 11, mostly against playoff competitors, has really taken a toll on the spirit of this franchise. They have a ton of road games left, but to be honest it might be better not to play in front of home crowds for a while. Though a single win could slingshot the Nuckleheads from 11th all the way up to 6th, you get the sense that this is a 2007 Senators situation. As you read Sundin's stat line (9gp, 2-1-3, -6) lower your head and quietly remember: "There but for the grace of Mike Gillis..."

Panthers - Now, this is more like it! Riding a 7-season playoff drought, having not won a series since the '96 Finals (ask Joe Sakic, I hear he has some time on his... um... hand.), playing before crowds of literally hundreds of fans, and on the brink of losing their franchise cornerstone defenseman... the Panthers are thriving. They rang up an 8-game undefeated streak (counting SOLs as ties, old-school style) in January and have recently beaten the Flyers and Habs. Sitting only a point out of 8th place, the Panthers might literally be playing for the future of their franchise.

Pens - Oy vey. Back in the dumps again. The Pens seem fatally flawed, the victims of a little too much roster movement and a key injury to the league's most underrated defenseman. Still, they have a rare duo of world-class forwards who can singlehandedly carry a team. That's usually enough to be competitive... unless of course you're the Lightning or Senators or Penguins.

Coyotes - Just when you thought Gretzky was going to end up coaching the Winnipeg Coyotes, this young team (finally) starts to pay dividends on years of hope and patience. But like any young team, the Yotes are wildly inconsistent. They've lost three straight by a combined score of 11-3, including dual shutouts. They may have to use their weak April schedule as a back door into the playoffs.

Stars - Is this team really in 6th place? Really? These guys? These guys? I guess the Avery suspension was the right move after all. Don't be fooled, though; Dallas' recent surge in the standings has been fuelled by wins over not-so-tough opponents. Aside from a couple of wins over the Wings, they've feasted on other bubble teams to pull themselves up the ladder one seed at a time. It's a great way to get into the playoff bracket, but don't expect much out of the Stars if they end up matched with the Sharks. Now, if they draw the Wings...

Blue Jackets - Ask me again next week, when we know a little more about Mason.

When does it become official?

Nothing shakes up a first-place team like the words "Goalie Controversy".

All season long, Claude Julien has artfully dodged the obvious conflict between having two starters. To watch or listen to Tim Thomas and Manny Fernandez, they're the best of friends and simply enjoying their experience as co-number-ones. Everyone's acted the consummate professional -- Julien has shown no preference for either goalie, both have played well and stayed polite, and the Bruins have surged into an uncontested first-place position.

Wasn't all of this supposed to get easier when the deadlock was broken, and the Bruins had a clear-cut #1 again?

When Manny succumbed to nagging back issues just before the All-Star break, Thomas stepped in for 8 consecutive starts, ringing up an impressive 5-1-2 record against stiff competition. According to the playbook, this is where Timmy was supposed to take full control of the #1 position, and Manny was supposed to assume the role of reliable backup for the stretch run. Manny might sulk a bit, but he would be gone either at the March trade deadline or during the summer. Meanwhile he could be counted on to take over if Thomas were injured or rattled during the playoffs.

Enter Tuukka Rask.

Rask, who outperformed every other goaltender during Bruins training camp last fall, is the Bruins' answer to Carey Price -- young, talented, fully developed and simply waiting for his destiny to arrive. He is the future, 13 years junior to both Fernandez and Thomas and already playing at their level. For the past two seasons the Bruins have promised him the starting position as soon as the Thomas/Fernandez dynamic is resolved.

Rask upped the ante during yesterday's matinee against the Rangers.. With Fernandez in the press box and Thomas exhausted from 8 straight starts, the rookie stopped 35 shots for a 1-0 victory in his first NHL appearance in over a year. It was more than a promise of things to come; it laid down a mandate to Bruins management to clear up their goaltending situation immediately. Suddenly, the future is now for a team stocked with young talent and a salary-cap bubble about to burst.

So, perhaps it's time to make it official: the Bruins have a goalie controversy. Tim Thomas is an All-Star, a Vezina candidate, and a fan favorite. Fernandez is a former Jennings winner and has been a top-10 netminder all season -- but is injured and a potential time bomb in the locker room. Rask is a would-be Calder candidate, a legitimate NHL starter and the future of the franchise. All three are circling around the starting position in Boston, but at least one will be the odd man out.

How does Peter Chiarelli break the deadlock? He has three options:
1) Trade or waive Fernandez before the March deadline, clearing $4 million in cap space that could be used to pursue a rental player. Move Rask into the backup spot for the rest of the season, and use Thomas as a "mentor" figure for the next couple of seasons as Rask takes on the starting role.
2) Reassign Rask to Providence, and risk the psychological fallout of sending a young goaltender back to the minors after 2 years of promises that he could play himself into the starting position in Boston. Continue to rotate Thomas and Fernandez during the stretch run, and let them hash it out in contract negotiations this summer to see who stays and who goes.
3) Reassign Rask to Providence, with the explicit promise that he will start next season. Let both Thomas and Fernandez walk in the offseason, and use the roughly $4 million savings to secure long-term contracts for RFAs Phil Kessel and David Krejci.

If you were Chiarelli for a day, which would you choose?