This NHL blog provides news updates and opinions on the most recent developments in the hockey world, including trade rumors, gossip, game reviews, and other news -- with a focus on the Boston Bruins.
All my hardcore fans who check this site 6-10 times per day* have probably noticed that I've been away for a few days. I've had slightly bigger fish to fry this week, with the world's newest hockey fan entering the world:
"Fuck the Habs!"
Indeed, little guy. Indeed.
Unfortunately this caused me to miss some juicy blogging material. Here's a quick summary of the past week in the Bruinsphere:
Thursday, 11/13: As a sign to mankind that the most badass hockey fan is being born unto the world, the Bruins pound the ever-living crap out of the Habs. This cathartic moment was sponsored by Milan Lucic's right fist.
Saturday, 11/15: The Bruins play a nearly complete game against the first-place Rangers, but blow a two-goal lead in the final minute and succumb in the shootout. Nevertheless, getting a point in New York after 3 games in 4 days against some of the league's best competition was no small feat.
Monday, 11/17: In a somewhat ugly affair, the Leafs can't quite rally and the Bruins pick up another 'W' to extend their division lead to 4 points. The Leafs are no laughing matter this season, and that Grabovski guy scored again. He's going to be a real pain.
Scattered thoughts from the weekend:
- This season's All-Star voting process has become a huge embarrassment to the league. There are so many things wrong I don't know where to start. Even after HabGate put a question mark on the validity of the vote totals, we are still looking at 6 Canadiens with leads of more than 100,000 votes, roughly double the total of their nearest competitor. I'm with Cornelius Hardenbergh on this one -- I see no point in continuing to feed traffic to the voting website. The write-in campaign for Tim Thomas is effectively a lost cause from the get-go, meaning it is now impossible for him to appear in the game, and I can't shake the feeling that the whole situation is a slap in the face to the players who actually deserve the honor. This may be the first time in 15 years that I don't feel motivated to tune in.
- On a more positive note, Milan Lucic leads the league in hits. Yes, the entire league. His legend is already starting to trickle into mainstream coverage, which is nothing but great news for the sport of hockey. We can only hope that thousands of squirt players buy Lucic jerseys and try to knock each other out of the rink this winter. Lucic = hockey.
- Manny Fernandez has quitely played some stellar games this season, ringing up an impressive 4-1-1 record. More importantly, he and Thomas are all smiles and there has been zero scuttlebutt about Fernandez moping or complaining. After stopping 59 of 61 shots against Buffalo and Montreal, he deserves a few more cracks at that starting job.
- Guys who need to step it up: Chara, Ryder, Bergeron, Krejci.
- Guys who deserve a gold star for effort: Savard, Wideman, Thornton, Kobasew.
- The Habs game and the Stars game have shown us something very valuable about this Bruins squad, something we haven't seen in a long time: These guys won't be fucked with. They give nobody an undue level of respect. Claude Julien has them melded together in a way you'd expect from a junior team, not a bunch of mercenary professionals. This will be valuable in the playoffs, which are suddenly no longer a question. I'm not positive about the division lead, but these guys are not going to implode and disappear like we all imagined they might.
- Elsewhere in the division: Buffalo is fading after a hot start (think fast: am I talking about the Bills or Sabres?), Montreal is playing inconsistently but will be back, the Leafs are talentless but are nobody's doormat, and the Sens are on the verge of Implosion: The Sequel.
* estimate based on internal polling and delusions of grandeur.
Observations from last night's 2-1 SO victory in Chicago:
- It's ridiculous that these teams don't play more often. I understand and support the desire to play more divisional games, but the season is long -- O6 teams need to play at least one game a season in each 06 city. Bruins/Hawks could be the NHL's answer to Celtics/Lakers in five years... if they actually see each other.
- I almost wish I had skipped the first two periods, which were just brutal to watch. Maybe it was good road strategy by the Bruins (bore the crowd after an emotional pep rally/number retirement ceremony), but it made terrible TV. As predicted, the Bruins were dominated in the first period to the tune of an 18-6 shot count, but held out long enough to get back in it.
- Chicago's got a great young core of players and will be very, very good in a couple of years. I hope they don't screw it up by making silly trades to try and win immediately, because a Blackhawks powerhouse would be very good for the NHL. With the right goalie, and maybe 2-3 more years to develop some of the fresh-faced kids into experienced role players, the Hawks will be better than the Roenick/Chelios/Belfour teams of the early 90s.
- Normally Center Ice shows the NESN broadcast, but last night they chose the Comcast feed with Eddie O. calling the game. They had Brent Seabrook wired, and it struck me that he seemed like a bit of a twat, constantly telling forwards their defensive mistakes. Seabrook is 23 years old. But on further review, at age 23 Seabrook already has more NHL experience than 10 of the Blackhawks' 13 active forwards. Defenseman Brent Sopel is the only skater on the roster who has twice as much experience as Seabrook. And Seabrook's 23.
Tonight the Bruins break a 4-day gameless streak when they visit the Blackhawks for their only matchup this season. Here are a few threads to keep an eye on.
Don't Get Caught Looking: The Bruins, who are playing 4 of the other 5 teams from the Original Six in the next week, have some huge matchups on the schedule. Tomorrow night's game against Montreal will essentially be a grudge match for the division title, and games against the Rangers and Sabres also have major conference implications. It's a textbook setup for the Bruins to come out flat on the road, and get torched by a team in the middle of an important homestand.
Evenly Matched: All the buzz around this game is that the Bruins and Hawks are doppelgangers. Both are young, emerging squads playing for the hearts of their respective cities. Both are focused squarely on the playoffs and developing a winning attitude... with secret hopes that they're witnessing the birth of a dynasty. Both are dealing with an embarrasment of riches in goal. Both come into the game on a hot streak with a division lead within sniffing distance. But their styles are almost entirely opposite -- the Blackhawks have a run-and-gun team stocked with top-shelf talent. The Bruins play tooth-loosening defense and get their offense through depth and tenacity.
Home Cookin': The Blackhawks have not lost a regulation game at home this season (6-0-2). Then again, Boston ended the Sabres' undefeated road record last time they played. It'll be tougher tonight as the Blackhawks are retiring the #3 worn by Pierre Pilote (overdue) and Keith Magnuson. Ideally this would be a distraction, but the Blackhawks have been drawing huge crowds this season and the fans will be expecting a big game.
Matchups: Since they have the advantage on line changes, the Blackhawks will presumably match up their top line of Kane-Toews-Versteeg against the Bruins' 4th line of Thornton-Yelle-Kobasew when possible. I would advise them to do otherwise -- the 4th line has probably been Boston's best at keeping possession of the puck lately. The combination of faceoff prowess, intelligence, speed and hulking body mass have kept the puck squarely in the offensive end of the ice while the Bruins wear down opposing goalscorers. This has been a key... nay, a vital element of their recent success. If I'm Joel Quenneville, I'm matching my scorers against Boston's weaker third line of Sturm-Krejci-Wheeler.
Change Is in the Air?: These teams have a combined Cup drought of 83 years.
The campaign has begun to elect Tim Thomas to his rightful place in the All-Star game (he was left off the ballot despite currently leading the league in GAA and Save %). Don't forget to go to http://fanballoting.nhl.com/ and vote for him. Blackhawks fans, we'd appreciate the support if you are going there to vote for your own guys... on the Eastern Conference section, just write in Timmy's name.
Hmmm... something seems familiar about this scene. It could easily be confused with this one:
Or this one: (at 2:50)
Or this one:
Or this one: (at 0:53)
Just for kicks, let's compare the severity of the injuries above to the level of punishment received by the offender.
Kostopoulos on Van Ryn Injury: Concussion, broken nose, broken hand; will miss at least a month. Punishment: 3 games
Jones on Bergeron Injury: Grade III concussion, broken nose; missed 72 games Punishment: 2 games
Hollweg on Kostitsyn Injury: None Punishment: 1 game
Hollweg on Pietrangelo Injury: None Punishment: 3 games
Lemieux on Draper Injury: Concussion, broken jaw, cheekbone, and orbital bone; reconstructive surgery over the summer. Punishment: 2 games, $1,000 fine
Bottom line: In the NHL, you can check a player face-first into the boards and expect a 1-3 game suspension -- regardless of circumstance, resulting injury, time of year, time of game, personal reputation or the logo on your jersey.
Protecting Our Players
One to three games. That's all you get for jeapordizing the life and livelihood of other players. Let's compare that to the standard for other major violations:
Assault with Stick -- 25 games (Simon), 25 games (Boulerice), 23 games (McSorely)
Kicking -- 30 games (Simon), 8 games (Pronger) Abuse of official -- 13 games (Roy), 23 games (Dwyer), 20 games (Lysiak) Sucker Punch -- 12 games (Johnson), 20 games (Bertuzzi), 21 games (Hunter), 8 games (Domi)
Compare to Boarding – 2 games (Lemieux), 3 games (Hollweg), 1 game (Hollweg), 3 games (Kostopoulos)
The rationale behind the NHL’s suspension policy
Clearly, even the most egregious incidents of boarding – regardless of circumstance – are considered less serious by the league than even the most mild kicking incident. Chris Pronger received 4 times as severe a penalty for a questionable kick than Claude Lemieux received for a very intentional boarding foul.
The rationale for these standards should be familiar to anyone who has followed hockey in the Bettman Era – it’s all a matter of premeditation. The ruling philosophy is that violations which arise from a split-second decision (such as boarding) are naturally less serious than those which require some forethought (such as sucker-punching Ulf Samuelsson).
A second principle at work is that violations arising from in-game play (a crosscheck from behind while battling in the corners) are more serious than those which occur outside the normal scope of the game (a crosscheck to the face 10 seconds after the whistle).
Taking these two principles together, the league concludes that it is both more important and more practical to levy serious suspensions toward premeditated, non-hockey-related suspensions than to police grey-area matters such as boarding. And that is where the NHL loses its credibility.
Is it possible to affect a player’s split-second decisions?
Professional hockey players are quite possibly the most skilled athletes in the world. Despite its frantic appearance, very little of what happens in an NHL game is random or uncontrollable. Players routinely anticipate a bodycheck fractions of a second in advance -- so far ahead of the event that they are able to control the timing and direction of the impact. Asking them to change their thinking in split-second situations is not only practical, it has been done several times in the past decade.
The crease rule… the obstruction crackdown… the goalie trapezoid… in every case, the NHL has identified a significant problem in the game and mandated that players change their quick-decision mentality. In 1999 it was typical for a power forward to time his approach to the net so that his toes entered the goal crease a split-second after the puck – because his job depended on it (this is less of an issue under current rules). In 2006, players had to learn that they could not reach out and grab another player to slow his progress – and if they planned to stay in the league, they adjusted. Today we routinely see goalies reflexively avoiding the puck if it’s bouncing near the edge of the trapezoid – because it’s part of their job to do so. They’re professional athletes. They can handle it.
The best goalies, the ones who thrive at the highest level of play, have become expert at waiting until the puck was just at the line before touching it. The worst, those who don’t belong in the league, will simply avoid it altogether – and eventually be replaced by someone more skilled.
The same part of the human brain that controls these reflexive actions is also in control of the decision whether to check from behind. If a player can slow his glide to the net in order to arrive at the crease three-tenths of a second behind the puck, then he has the ability to pull up on a hit from behind, rather than following through with a forearm to the back of the head.
Is it possible to affect management behavior?
In the 1992 season, the last before Gary Bettman and the instigator rule combined to eliminate the “goon” from the NHL, there were 8 players who broke the 300-PIM barrier. Those 8 players combined for 40 goals (an average of only 5 per goon), a sure sign that they were contributing little more than pure violence to the league.
In the past 5 seasons combined, only one player has broken 300 PIM – Daniel Carcillo finished last season an astonishing 98 PIM ahead of runner-up Jared Boll. Carcillo scored 13 goals, nearly triple the rate that one would have expected from a goon 15 years ago. Regardless of how we might perceive the instigator penalty, it had one clear and unquestionable effect: it made the traditional goon obsolete, and replaced him with a less violent, more skilled enforcer in the mold of Georges Laraque.
But that revolutionary change in the game involved more than just players and referees; general managers were the true agents of change. Some chose to retain goons, mostly for sentimental reasons (Rob Ray managed to hang on in Buffalo for a whole decade of the Bettman Era). But the majority of GMs quickly figured out that high-PIM/low-scoring players were a drag on the team, and within 5 years only a handful of old-school goons could find work in the NHL.
We’re seeing a similar, more subtle filtering of talent today as the new obstruction rules have become a fixture. Hulking blueliners like Derian Hatcher and Dan McGillis, who thrived in a clutch-and-grab environment, are being replaced with smaller, more versatile defensemen. Ultimately it’s the coaches and GMs, not referees or league officials, who make the decision to change the way the game is played… because it’s the coaches and GMs who award roster spots.
So any solution to the cheap-shot problem must take into account that it’s managers who institute real change … not players, not referees. Currently, the league’s disciplinary policy punishes GMs with minor headaches when a player is suspended for dangerous play – a small fine, a player unavailable for most of a week, perhaps an embarrassed press conference. There is a fundamental need for suspensions to strongly affect a GM by significantly damaging his team’s chance at success during the duration of the penalty.
Finding the right formula for change
So, here is what I recommend:
1) Starting immediately, the NHL should establish a system of automatic, progressive suspensions for major penalties. This should apply specifically to boarding, elbowing and charging penalties – those most likely to cause life-threatening injury. In order to provide a “benefit of the doubt” for irregular offenders, the first offense should carry only a one-game suspension. For each subsequent violation, there should be a five-game, ten-game, fifteen-game, thirty-game, and finally a one-season penalty. 2) In order to deter GMs from signing players with a proclivity toward cheapshots, the suspended player should count toward the roster total during the duration of the suspension as long as he is listed as an active player. GMs can avoid this penalty by assigning the player to the minors or putting him on IR, but during that time he is considered inactive and the countdown stops. If it’s not worth the roster penalty to get a player back in the lineup promptly, that player is obsolete and could always find work in Europe. The balance of the suspension would expire one calendar year from the date of the offense, to appease the NHLPA and provide some opportunity for reform. 3) The commissioner’s office must retain strong oversight over the process and have an active role in deciding when to alter the automatic penalties according to circumstance. Clearly, a serious incident would require more than a one-game suspension even if it was a first offense. The automatic-penalty system should not be a means for the league to wash its hands of responsibility.
This system would guarantee that boarding, and the players who make a habit of it, would become obsolete within a single season. It would ensure that ticketholders would get their money’s worth by keeping skilled players healthy and eliminating talentless thugs. It would increase the sense of accountability among GMs and coaches, and eventually lead to a culture of self-policing. And to a certain extent it would further open up the game along the boards by allowing puck carriers an extra split-second to operate in a vulnerable position before being checked.
Case Studies
Let’s say, hypothetically, that this system had been in place for Chris Pronger’s entire career. For the sake of argument, I’ll pretend that it applies to stick fouls as well as boarding and charging penalties. Take a look at the difference it would have made:
10/29/95 Incident: Slashes Pat Peake in the throat. Actual Penalty: Four games Hypothetical Penalty: One game, with possible supplement
12/17/98 Incident: Slashes Jeremy Roenick on the helmet Actual Penalty: Four games Hypothetical Penalty: Five games 4/3/02 Incident: Cross-checks Brenden Morrow Actual Penalty: Two games Hypothetical Penalty: Ten games. At this point one would expect him to stop.
5/15/07 Incident: Boarding/elbowing on Tomas Holmstrom Actual Penalty: One playoff game Hypothetical Penalty: 15 games… but even Pronger’s not dumb enough to do this knowing he would receive a 15-game suspension during the playoffs.
6/2/07 Incident: Elbow to the head of Dean McAmmond Actual Penalty: One Finals game Hypothetical Penalty: He’d still be suspended from the previous incident.
3/12/08 Incident: Skate stomp on Ryan Kesler Actual Penalty: Eight games Hypothetical Penalty: Considering he was suspended almost the entire playoffs, one would hope he wouldn’t be this stupid. See what I’m getting at?
For what it’s worth, under this system Ryan Hollweg would still have 4 games left to serve on his 10-game suspension from the October 13th incident… if the Leafs bothered to keep him on the roster, that is. As it stands he’s played six games since then, logging all of one assist and a -3.
Meanwhile, Mike Van Ryn has six weeks to go on IR.
With last night's win over Buffalo, the Bruins are (at least temporarily) the banner team in the Northeast Division -- a tough feat, considering the division includes 3 of the Eastern Conference's top 4 teams. While it's still far too early to talk about being in first place in April, the division lead is a testament to the team's resilience in the face of a tough early schedule... and a sign that they are a force to be reckoned with as they play a favorable schedule in November.
What's behind the sudden success (6 wins in 7 games) of a team that many pundits predicted would miss the playoffs? It boils down to a few key factors tilting in Boston's favor:
Hot Goaltending - This is the #1 factor in the Bruins' current streak. In the past 7 games, Tim Thomas has allowed only 5 goals on 168 shots, and Manny Fernandez has won both of his starts by stopping 60 of 65. More importantly, both goaltenders have played their best at key moments, allowing only 4 third-period goals during the streak.
Breakout Games - Milan Lucic had scored only one goal entering the Oct 25th matchup against the Thrashers, when he broke out with a hat trick. Blake Wheeler doubled his scoring total with a hat trick against Toronto on Nov 6th. Marco Sturm scored twice against Dallas after scoring only once in 11 previous games. Last night, Chuck Kobasew tallied a goal and an assist after missing a month with injury. Though Savard is the only player consistently producing at a point-per-game level, it seems that each night brings a new breakout game from a different player.
Depth Players - One of the best-kept secrets in the Eastern Conference is the outstanding play of Boston's 4th line. Shawn Thornton, Stephane Yelle, and a revolving right wing (at times filled by Sobotka, Nokelainen, and Kobasew) consistently dominate their ice time with hard-nosed cycling in the corners. They only pot the occasional goal, but more importantly they sap the ability of opponents' top players to take advantage of their matchups -- an especially important advantage on the road.
Blueline Scoring - In the first 8 games of the season, Boston defensemen accounted for only 1 goal. Since then, they have scored 5. This hardly makes them a threatening bunch of goal scorers, but it's enough to create some extra room for Boston's forwards. Still, one goal from Zdeno Chara (a fluky, bouncing shot that surprised Toskala) is not enough -- look for defensemen scoring to increase as the season goes on.
- Of course, the big story of the night was Blake Wheeler. Wearing new digits (#26, instead of the #42) he pumped in 3 goals to double his season total and tie Mikhail Grabovski for the rookie lead. Oddly, Grabovski scored one of his own to keep pace.
- The Leafs did not look as strong as I expected. In the first 40 minutes the Bruins thoroughly dominated the pace of the game, and only let up in the third period with a 3-0 lead. Apparently this has been happening quite often to the Leafs who have built a reputation for furious comebacks against teams who start to relax with a large lead. It's a credit to Ron Wilson that they are hanging in till the last minute.
- Tim Thomas delivered another virtuoso performance, stopping all but two of 36 shots. The goals scored were both on strange miscues in front of the net. Astoundingly, this represented a below-average night statistically for the league's biggest All-Star snub.
- Chara finally found the net on a weird bouncing slapshot. That makes 1 goal in 31 shots over 13 games. Hopefully he'll be the next in a line of Bruins who are breaking out of brutal slumps.
- I want to take a moment to plug Michael Ryder, who is not getting his due on the stat sheet and will probably be a target of "overpaid players" commentary before too long. Ryder can't score to save his life, but he's doing the little things to make his team better. Last night he threw several well-timed hits on the forecheck that gave the Bruins extra offensive chances.
- Entering the game, the Boston defensemen combined for 16 points on the season. They combined for 2 goals and 3 assists last night, including 2 points each from Wideman and Ference.
- The Bruins continue to struggle on faceoffs, a lurking problem which could become a game-changer in tough contests.
The Bruins take on the Maple Leafs tomorrow night, ending a 4-day break. Here are a few plotlines to follow:
Statement Game: The two teams are basically neck-and-neck in the conference and divisional races; a Leafs win would vault them past Boston into an unexpected 2nd place. Two weeks ago, Toronto surprised the Bruins by playing a pretty solid game and scoring 4 straight goals. The secret is out -- they might not be a dynasty in the making, but the Leafs regularly exceed expectations and are not a doormat. In this game there will be no surprises, so it will basically be a benchmark to see whether Toronto is for real.
Rest or Rust?: The Bruins began their season with a frantic schedule including two long road trips, so the Powers-That-Be rewarded them with a few days off after Saturday's victory over Dallas. Under normal circumstances I'd be worried that they'd come out and stink up the Gahden for at least 20 minutes, but that might not be the case this time around. The team was supercharged after the emotional, fight-filled win over Dallas and has had 4 days to let that energy stew. I would not want to be the Leafs in this situation.
Playing to Their Strengths: The Leafs are solid on offense (12th) but one of the worst defensive teams in the NHL (27th). The Bruins are pretty much the opposite (25th and 12th, respectively). That's pretty much all you need to know about how they'll approach this game. Daring prediction: the Leafs will try to score a lot.
Manny?: No word yet on starting goalies, but this is the sort of game you'd expect Julien to hand over to Manny Fernandez. Tim Thomas has been smoking hot of late, but Manny needs reps if he's going to actually compete for the #1 position... though that ship appears to have sailed already. [update: Boston.com predicts that Thomas will start his fifth straight game tonight. This pretty much puts a fork in the notion that he and Fernandez will be a platoon -- hope that bench seat's comfy, Manny.]
Clean Bill of Health: Chuck Kobasew is expected to return to the Bruins lineup after nearly a month, which makes the Bruins officially a healthy team with nobody on IR (of course there are always murmurs about unreported injuries, particularly about Chara's health). Likewise, the Leafs have no injuries at present. [update: Looks like I spoke too soon on this one. Kobasew will not play until at least Saturday, and the Bruins will be missing the services of Shane Hnidy with the mysterious "lower body injury". Mark Stuart is day-to-day with the flu; no word as to whether he skates tonight.]
Hunwick In, Sobotka Out: Fan favorite Vladimir Sobotka was sent back to Providence, presumably to make room for Kobasew's return. Word on the street is that Shane Hnidy will sit out the game after giving his fists a nice workout on Saturday, and will be replaced by rookie Matt Hunwick. Hunwick played a solid game against the Habs in his only other appearance, so it will be interesting to see what he does with this opportunity.
Shootouts: Combined, the teams are 1-6 in the skills contest. Let's hope it doesn't come to that.
"Fuck the Habs!"
