Death Watch Update

The Death Watch has been strangely quiet these past few weeks, as several teams are pulling a mid-season David Blaine act. Here's a look at how things have shaken out since the All-Star Game:

DEAD
Nothing to see here. Move along.

Islanders
Thrashers
Lightning
Blues
Senators

ON THE DEATH WATCH
It would take a Herculean effort for these teams to make the playoffs... but that's why they play the games!

Maple Leafs - On 1/14 I laid down an ultimatum: the Maple Leafs must win 4 of their 8 remaining games in January or be declared "dead". True to form, they racked up a record of 3-2-2, the equivalent of 4 wins but somehow less impressive. Nevertheless, they picked up 8 critical points and will play meaningful games for at least another couple of weeks.

Kings - It's a little unsettling that the Kings are still in the playoff hunt this late in the season. They're 6 points out of the final Western seed, with a logjam of teams ahead of them. Three consecutive wins against conference competition has kept the young Kings alive, but they dropped the first of 5 games on their eastern road trip. Keep an eye on them this week for signs of flameout.

Predators - The Preds nearly coughed up their shot at the playoffs last month, finishing January with an ugly 1-4-0 streak. A key win over Edmonton has temporarily lifted their spirits, but their next 4 games are against key playoff-position competitors. This could make or break the Preds.

Avalanche - How are these guys not dead yet? Despite the second-worst record in the West and having lost 7 of 8, Colorado is a mere 6 points out of the playoffs. It's unfathomable that this crew could actually pull it off, but for the time being they still have a fighting chance at making the postseason cut. Missing both Sakic and Forsberg will hurt them on the ice, but at least they won't have to listen to those stories about the '96 Finals again.

STILL KICKING
Your playoff dark-horses, scrapping and clawing for a shot at Stanley.

Canucks - Oof. Losing 10 of 11, mostly against playoff competitors, has really taken a toll on the spirit of this franchise. They have a ton of road games left, but to be honest it might be better not to play in front of home crowds for a while. Though a single win could slingshot the Nuckleheads from 11th all the way up to 6th, you get the sense that this is a 2007 Senators situation. As you read Sundin's stat line (9gp, 2-1-3, -6) lower your head and quietly remember: "There but for the grace of Mike Gillis..."

Panthers - Now, this is more like it! Riding a 7-season playoff drought, having not won a series since the '96 Finals (ask Joe Sakic, I hear he has some time on his... um... hand.), playing before crowds of literally hundreds of fans, and on the brink of losing their franchise cornerstone defenseman... the Panthers are thriving. They rang up an 8-game undefeated streak (counting SOLs as ties, old-school style) in January and have recently beaten the Flyers and Habs. Sitting only a point out of 8th place, the Panthers might literally be playing for the future of their franchise.

Pens - Oy vey. Back in the dumps again. The Pens seem fatally flawed, the victims of a little too much roster movement and a key injury to the league's most underrated defenseman. Still, they have a rare duo of world-class forwards who can singlehandedly carry a team. That's usually enough to be competitive... unless of course you're the Lightning or Senators or Penguins.

Coyotes - Just when you thought Gretzky was going to end up coaching the Winnipeg Coyotes, this young team (finally) starts to pay dividends on years of hope and patience. But like any young team, the Yotes are wildly inconsistent. They've lost three straight by a combined score of 11-3, including dual shutouts. They may have to use their weak April schedule as a back door into the playoffs.

Stars - Is this team really in 6th place? Really? These guys? These guys? I guess the Avery suspension was the right move after all. Don't be fooled, though; Dallas' recent surge in the standings has been fuelled by wins over not-so-tough opponents. Aside from a couple of wins over the Wings, they've feasted on other bubble teams to pull themselves up the ladder one seed at a time. It's a great way to get into the playoff bracket, but don't expect much out of the Stars if they end up matched with the Sharks. Now, if they draw the Wings...

Blue Jackets - Ask me again next week, when we know a little more about Mason.

When does it become official?

Nothing shakes up a first-place team like the words "Goalie Controversy".

All season long, Claude Julien has artfully dodged the obvious conflict between having two starters. To watch or listen to Tim Thomas and Manny Fernandez, they're the best of friends and simply enjoying their experience as co-number-ones. Everyone's acted the consummate professional -- Julien has shown no preference for either goalie, both have played well and stayed polite, and the Bruins have surged into an uncontested first-place position.

Wasn't all of this supposed to get easier when the deadlock was broken, and the Bruins had a clear-cut #1 again?

When Manny succumbed to nagging back issues just before the All-Star break, Thomas stepped in for 8 consecutive starts, ringing up an impressive 5-1-2 record against stiff competition. According to the playbook, this is where Timmy was supposed to take full control of the #1 position, and Manny was supposed to assume the role of reliable backup for the stretch run. Manny might sulk a bit, but he would be gone either at the March trade deadline or during the summer. Meanwhile he could be counted on to take over if Thomas were injured or rattled during the playoffs.

Enter Tuukka Rask.

Rask, who outperformed every other goaltender during Bruins training camp last fall, is the Bruins' answer to Carey Price -- young, talented, fully developed and simply waiting for his destiny to arrive. He is the future, 13 years junior to both Fernandez and Thomas and already playing at their level. For the past two seasons the Bruins have promised him the starting position as soon as the Thomas/Fernandez dynamic is resolved.

Rask upped the ante during yesterday's matinee against the Rangers.. With Fernandez in the press box and Thomas exhausted from 8 straight starts, the rookie stopped 35 shots for a 1-0 victory in his first NHL appearance in over a year. It was more than a promise of things to come; it laid down a mandate to Bruins management to clear up their goaltending situation immediately. Suddenly, the future is now for a team stocked with young talent and a salary-cap bubble about to burst.

So, perhaps it's time to make it official: the Bruins have a goalie controversy. Tim Thomas is an All-Star, a Vezina candidate, and a fan favorite. Fernandez is a former Jennings winner and has been a top-10 netminder all season -- but is injured and a potential time bomb in the locker room. Rask is a would-be Calder candidate, a legitimate NHL starter and the future of the franchise. All three are circling around the starting position in Boston, but at least one will be the odd man out.

How does Peter Chiarelli break the deadlock? He has three options:
1) Trade or waive Fernandez before the March deadline, clearing $4 million in cap space that could be used to pursue a rental player. Move Rask into the backup spot for the rest of the season, and use Thomas as a "mentor" figure for the next couple of seasons as Rask takes on the starting role.
2) Reassign Rask to Providence, and risk the psychological fallout of sending a young goaltender back to the minors after 2 years of promises that he could play himself into the starting position in Boston. Continue to rotate Thomas and Fernandez during the stretch run, and let them hash it out in contract negotiations this summer to see who stays and who goes.
3) Reassign Rask to Providence, with the explicit promise that he will start next season. Let both Thomas and Fernandez walk in the offseason, and use the roughly $4 million savings to secure long-term contracts for RFAs Phil Kessel and David Krejci.

If you were Chiarelli for a day, which would you choose?

Bruins vs. Rangers: Stuff To Look Out For

Too damn early: These afternoon matinees are great for young families, terrible for bloggers. I woke up at 9 CST (10 EST) this morning and realized that the Bruins game was less than three hours away. Great for hangovers, terrible for game previews.

Mini-playoffs: The Rangers jumped out to an early lead in the Eastern Conference, largely as a result of playing 3-5 more games than anyone else but have been gradually losing ground ever since. They're walking a fine line between "contender" and "first-round fodder", so expect them to treat this as -- say it with me -- a measuring stick game. The peril of playing every Eastern contender in the space of a week is that the pressure never lets up. It's like the playoffs; every other night you face a team with that "I've waited all season to beat YOU" look in their eyes.

So far the Bruins are 1-0-1 in their mini-playoffs. That gives me reason for cautious optimism in this game, as the Bruins and Rangers always go to a shootout and therefore a charity-point is usually in play.

Fernandez chatter: Here is comes again -- without doing anything at all, Manny Fernandez is becoming a distraction. Hub Hockey reports that Fernandez' "general soreness" in his back is related to the knee injury that cost him all of last season. If this is true, it might torpedo any plans to swap Manny at the trade deadline, while simultaneously making him a giant question-mark for the late season and playoffs. Meanwhile, Stanley Cup of Chowder calls for Tuukka Rask to start this game, to see what the kid's got to offer and give Tim Thomas a day of relief. If Manny's going to be unreliable from now on, I'd like to see Rask getting one out of every five starts... just in case.

Which Rangers will it be?: So far this month, the Blueshirts have been torched twice by the Pens, crushed by the Habs and lost squeakers to the Caps and Sabres. They've also picked up victories against opponents from all over the spectrum of difficulty: Islanders, Ottawa, Pittsburgh, Carolina, Anaheim, Chicago. Pressure is starting to build on King Henrik, who was awful in the third period of their previous game (after being abused in the All-Star game). I'm thinking Tom Renney's neckties are starting to feel a little tighter every night.

"Maintenance Day"?: Hub Hockey also reports that David Krejci skipped practice for what Claude Julien called a "maintanance day". Just when you thought the Bruins were finished with injuries to their top-5 forwards...

Key matchup: Scott Gomez vs. Marc Savard. Gomez is one of the few stable things about the Rangers roster, reliably scoring points while making things difficult on opposing centers. Savard will be trying to get pucks to both Phil Kessel and Milan Lucic, both of whom are trying to rediscover their touch after returning from injury. If Gomez can make life difficult for Savard, he might be able to take a big bite out of the Bruins offense.

Fight I want to see: A matchup between Colton Orr and Shawn Thornton? Yes, please!

Other Previews:
Stanley Cup of Chowder
The Hockey Blog Adventure
Wicked Bruins Fan
The Big Bad Bruins
The New York Rangers Blog
Rangers Report

Bruins vs. Devils: Stuff To Look Out For

Another awesome matchup of Cup contenders who are red-hot and getting healthier. New Jersey has won 7 straight and are hardly missing Martin Brodeur. Boston is 6-1-1 lately and returning several key players from injury. They're #1 and #3 in the conference, so expect a tightly-played classic tonight.

Running The Gauntlet: Back in October, one little section of the schedule stuck out so much that I called it "The Gauntlet" in the season preview. We are now entering that beastly stretch, which I characterized in terms of the February road trip but actually began on Tuesday against Washington. Here's our schedule for the next three weeks, with opponents' records and conference rankings:

1/27 - Washington 30-15-4, #2 (win)
1/29 - New Jersey 30-15-3, #3
1/31 - Rangers 29-17-4, #4
2/1 - @ Montreal 27-14-6, #5
2/4 - @ Philadelphia 25-13-9, #6 (yes, we are playing the entire top 6 in order)
2/5 - @ Ottawa 16-22-7, #13
2/7 - Philadelphia 25-13-9, #6
2/10 - San Jose 35-6-5, #1 in West
2/13 - @ New Jersey 30-15-3, #3
2/14 - @ Nashville 21-23-3, #14 in West
2/17 - @ Carolina 23-21-5, #10
2/21 - @ Florida 22-17-8, #8
2/22 - @ Tampa Bay 17-21-10, #11

Those last few games wouldn't be so bad, except that they're all road games and 4 out of 5 involve back-to-back nights in different cities. An 8-5 record would be outstanding during this stretch, and would pretty much clinch the #1 seed.

Kessel Cleared: You read it right, Phil Kessel is back after less than three weeks' absence with mono. The only major question-mark for tonight's game will be Michael Ryder, who is practicing with the team after coming down with the flu last week. [update: Ryder will be returning to the lineup tonight, meaning the roster is as complete as it's likely to get until next season.]

Expected Starters: At the beginning of the season, would have you guessed that a January 29 matchup between Tim Thomas and Scott Clemmensen would have been characterized as a "goalie showdown and possible Eastern Finals preview"? Thomas continues to maintain a Vezina-like level of play, but Clemmensen has been even hotter (winning 5 straight, allowing only 5 goals in the past 4 games) and has carried the Devils in the absence of the Living Legend. Last time around, it was a 1-0 decision -- don't be surprised if fewer than 3 goals are scored in this game, even with a rejuvenated Bruins offense.

[update: Looks like Manny Fernandez's "general soreness" is indeed a reoccurrence of the back spasms that cost him a few games earlier this month. Euphemistic language aside, general soreness in the back is not a minor injury for a pro goaltender.]

Chia Pet: God, did I really just make that pun? Anyway... KPD reports that Bruins GM Peter Chiarelli has earned himself a contract extension, which is now being sorted out with management. Most of Chiarelli's decisions have been solid and he's shown a clear sense of how to build a team over time -- let's hope for at least a 3-year deal.

What Does This Game Mean For Boston?: To put it plainly, time is on our side. There are only 32 games left in the season, and we lead the rest of the conference by 11 points. The Devils are one of two teams (the other being the Caps) who have a realistic shot of catching up, and it's a longshot indeed. If Boston wins this game in regulation, they are 14 points ahead of New Jersey with 31 games left and the head-to-head tiebreaker. That is, more or less, a death-blow to the Devils' chance of stealing the #1 seed. Also, this is a good measuring-stick game against a team we're very likely to see in the playoffs.

What Does This Game Mean For New Jersey?: A lot more than it does for Boston. The Devils are locked in a tooth-and-nail struggle for the Atlantic Division crown, holding marginal leads over the Rangers and Flyers with games-in-hand being an issue for both. A win would catapault the Devils into the #2 seed, but a loss could potentially drop them to #5 by the weekend. That's the difference between a home-ice series against the Sabres, and a road-ice series against Montreal.

Who To Watch: Kessel, to see if he's got his step back. Both goalies, who will probably have phenomenal games. Patrice Bergeron, who is making it look very easy to return from a concussion. Zach Parise, who is fast becoming a star power forward. Jamie Langenbrunner, who had a huge game against the Sens on Tuesday and carries a hot stick. Brendan Shanahan, because you'll miss him when he's gone.

Other Previews:
Kynch's Bruins Korner - Good thing he's not a Kings fan... I'm just sayin'...
The Bear Cave - Picks up on the Jay Leach connection.
Stanley Cup of Chowder - Noke is "questionable" with a mysterious injury. If it's mono... well, that would be gross.
The Bruins Report - Did we mention that Kessel's back?

Bruins vs. Caps: Stuff To Look Out For

You seriously need me to tell you anything about this game that you don't already know?

#1 Bruins vs. #2 Caps: essentially a 2-game standings boost in favor of the winner.

Ovechkin vs. Thomas: Three days ago they combined to win the All-Star game shootout. Thomas stopped Ovechkin in the Elimination shootout, but AO8 won the trick-shot competition.

Here comes the cavalry: Patrice Bergeron, Milan Lucic and Andrew Ference are all back tonight. Other than rust, this should be pretty close to a full-strength game for the Bruins (who are still going to miss Kessel for a while). It's the closest thing to an even matchup that we've seen between these teams so far, as injuries were a major factor in the first two matchups.

Rask in the house: Manny Fernandez's "general soreness" is turning into "general unavailability", so Tuukka Rask is on the bench for the Bruins. If, for whatever reason, he ends up playing in this game it has the potential to be a watershed moment for the franchise.

Super sophomores: Nicklas Backstrom and David Krecji are probably the two best second-year players in the league at present. They might actually be matched up against each other, so keep an eye on that one.

Don't get attached: Kevin Paul Dupont reports that Chiarelli will be making at least a move or two before the trade deadline. Last season, that would have sounded like typical rumor-mongering by the press. This season, it's practically a stone-cold guarantee as the Bruins look prepared for a multi-round playoff run. The Bruins are practically obligated to ditch any remaining spare parts and make a try for firesale items (Nik Antropov's name has surfaced repeatedly).

The most important thing to watch: The absolutely amazing hockey that these teams are playing. Matchups this awesome are fairly rare in the regular season -- enjoy!

This Could Get Ugly

Of the many showcase events going on this weekend, one of the most compelling is the Gatorade NHL Elimination Shootout (nice name... not). The rules are simple -- miss your shot, and you're out. The shooters keep going until only one guy is left.

Thrashers 411 brings us the first-round lineup for each of the 4 participating goaltenders, including this gem for Tim Thomas:

(4) Tim Thomas (BOS)
Eric Staal (CAR)
Mark Streit (NYI)
Brian Campbell (CHI)
Jay Bouwmeester (FLA)
Mike Modano (DAL)
Ryan Getzlaf (ANA)
Evgeni Malkin (PIT)
Alex Ovechkin (WSH)
Alex Kovalev (MTL)

Ummmm... is it me, or does that last trio of shooters look a little difficult?

Weekend Links

If you aren't TOO pumped up about this weekend, here's some extra reading material:

Battle of Alberta - Baseball standings! In hockey, unlike baseball, a 6-game lead is solid... really solid.

PlayoffStatus.com - How solid, you ask? Try 80% solid.

Melrose Rocks - Kevin is downright giddy at the revelation of "Flyers Sign Guy"'s true identity.

Russo's Rants - The Players' Union passed on its opportunity to reopen CBA negotiations, guaranteeing labor stability until 2011.

The Good Point - A passionate anti-fighting argument. It fails to note that a ban on fighting would take away these precious moments.

Brodeur Is A Fraud - Dismantling Marty's legacy, one post at a time. Gotta love this blog's persistence.

Bird Watchers Anonymous - Thoughts on attendance-rigging in Nashville, and what it might mean for the Thrashers.

The Red Skate - Ovechkin gets pwned by some guy in a hotel restaurant.