Showing posts with label Stanley Cup Finals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stanley Cup Finals. Show all posts

Friday, June 12, 2009

A John Buccigross masterpiece

Check out J.B.'s love-letter to Game 7 on espn.com.

Game 7 equals...

Cinnamon French toast and a side of home fries. Served by Megan Fox. In a Winnipeg Jets sweater.

A 9-year-old boy with his hat on backward shooting a flawless, roof-daddy wrist shot in his shorts on a warm June night at a tattered, rusty net. And, remember, Game 7 is not on a school night. Rejoice, Sparky.

The selfless soul of hockey, best defined by Bobby Orr's soul. If deity is selfless, thoughtful, humble and sensitive toward others, then we should be, too.


Yes. Nobody in the hockey world understands the soul of the game better than Bucci.


My contribution:

Game 7 equals a baby boy born in the season that everything seems to go right:

The Bruins run the table in first place and sweep the Habs...
60-goals becomes an achievable dream...
Cal Clutterbuck becomes a household name...
Tim Thomas finally gets his moment in the sun...
Sean Avery is kicked out of the league, and then let back in again...
The Winter Classic is at Wrigley, and Chicago is back as a hockey town...
The best goalie ever becomes the greatest goalie ever...
A team might move from south to north, for once...
The Richard Trophy winner is also top-10 in hits...
The Norris Trophy winner wears black and gold (pending)...
The Blues pull it off, against all odds...
Rick Nash makes it to the postseason...
Five of the Original Six teams make the playoffs, and the Leafs get a new lease on life...
Ryan Getzlaf arrives...
Sidney meets Alex in a 7th game...
Three of the top four scorers play in the Finals...
The two best teams in the league play all seven games for the Cup.

We win.

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Thursday, June 11, 2009

Pens' chances are better than they seem

Today's Mainstream Media statistics du jour:
- The home team has won 12 of 14 Finals Game 7s.
- The home team has won the last 6 straight Finals Game 7s.
- The last road team to pull off the upset was Ken Dryden's 1971 Canadiens.
Obvious conclusion: The Pens are up against monumentally poor odds of winning Game 7 on the road.

"The odds of surviving a road game in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals are approximately 14 to 2!"

Or are they? Let's take a closer look at those numbers before we clear a spot in the Joe for another Cup banner.

Here are the six matchups in question since 1971:

May 30, 1987 -Edmonton (#1 Smythe) beats Philly (#1 Patrick)
June 14, 1994 - Rangers (#1 East) beat Vancouver (#7 West)
June 9, 2001 - Colorado (#1 West) beats New Jersey (#1 East)
June 9, 2003 - New Jersey (#2 East) beats Anaheim (#7 West)
June 7, 2004 - Tampa Bay (#1 East) beats Calgary (#6 West)
June 19, 2006 - Carolina (#2 East) beats Edmonton (#8 West)


In 4 of the 6 occasions, the road team was not merely an underdog but a Cinderella story -- a plucky but inferior team facing off against a heavily-loaded #1 or #2 seed. The 2-0 record in #1-vs-#1 games is relevant, but not intimidating.

Now, there's no doubt that home ice is an advantage in a one-game playoff. The home team controls line changes, faceoffs, and gets an emotional lift from the friendly crowd.

But it also helps when the home team is a star-studded juggernaut and the road team is a doormat who happened to hit a hot streak in April and May.


"Never tell me the odds!"

So, Pens fans, don't despair when the folks at NBC run the 12-2 graphic and keep talking about the 6-game streak. You're facing nothing more than a 1-2 streak over the past 38 years for legitimate contenders playing a 7th game on the road.

For a shot at immortality, those are pretty good odds.

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Monday, June 8, 2009

How should a team react to a blowout?

First of all -- damn, there are a LOT of Star-Wars-lovin' hockey fans out there. Who knew?

Watching the Pens lose badly on Saturday put a cramp in the theory that they're playing the role of plucky underdog. They simply looked overwhelmed, overmatched, and extremely frustrated. Kinda like Chicago after 4 games of playing the Wings.


But the goonery at the end of Game 5 brought up an interesting philosophical point: how should a team react to being blown out in the playoffs?



Hockey, of course, usually features evenly-played matches at this point in the season. We're so used to quadruple-overtime marathons that we almost look forward them (almost). Usually a Finals team plays every minute of the series under extreme pressure to perform, because there's a legitimate hope that they could turn the game around with a single play. But when that possibility is reduced to nil, as when the Pens had to skate onto the ice for a third period trailing 5-0, some interesting decisions have to be made by the coaching staff.

As Billy Shakespeare might have put it, had he been an NBC color commentator:

To goon, or not to goon: that is the question:
Whether 'tis nobler in the third period to suffer
Twenty minutes of left-wing lock
Or to take arms against a sea of Swedes,
And send a friggin' message to those #$%*!

Of course, the rule of thumb is that the Finals are no place for thuggery. But I would argue the opposite -- if the Pens lose tomorrow, their season is over. They have literally nothing to lose by roughing up the Wings, so long as nobody gets suspended.


The greater question, then: is it the right decision?


The historic record would suggest that there actually is some advantage to late-game goonery. In the past 20 years, over the course of 99 Finals games, Saturday's was only the 10th time in which a team won by more than 3 goals. In three of the previous nine, the losing team decided to get rough in the closing period -- and have gone 2-1 so far in the next game. Those who chose not to push the limits have gone 2-3.


The psychology behind these decisions is simple: you're at the climax of 8 months of grueling effort. You have only one or two games left at most. The other team sees you as weak, relenting, ready to break. If you choose to hang your head and skate away, you've got a much lesser chance of stunning those guys in the next matchup. They already know they can beat you, and that you'll let them.


So the Pens may have been wise to let the primal rage flow for a few moments. Kinda like Luke in Empire Strikes Ba... awww, never mind.



Here's how the previous matchups played out:


2006 Game 2: Carolina def. Edmonton 5-0
Ethan Moreau punched Glen Wesley in the face; Georges Laraque got thrown out for hitting from behind. Ugly stuff. But Edmonton won the next game, and eventually overcame a 2-0 series deficit before falling in 7.
2006 Game 6: Edmonton def. Carolina 4-0
The Canes went down quietly, but came back to win the 7th game.


2001 Game 1: Colorado def. New Jersey 5-0
Ignoring the Avs' hot power play, the Devils gooned it up in the third. The penalty parade was led by Ken Daneyko and Sean O'Donnell, who was kicked out for instigating. Jersey bounced back to win the next game, and eventually led the series 3-2.
2001 Game 6: Colorado def. New Jersey 4-0
The Devils racked up two fights, a high-sticking and a roughing penalty in the final two minutes of the game. That didn't stop the Avs from winning Game 7.


2000 Game 1: New Jersey def. Dallas 7-3
Dallas took the loss more or less in stride, and won the next game 2-1. They lost the series in 6.

1997 Game 3: Detroit def. Philadelphia 6-1
Lindros and Co. looked shell-shocked throughout this game. They didn't put up much of a fight in this game, or when the sweep was completed two nights later.

1996 Game 2: Colorado def. Florida 8-1
The final 40 minutes of this game were a snoozer as the Panthers simply skated the time away. They lost in an extremely unmemorable sweep. (It's no coincidence that Claude Lemieux didn't play in this game)

1991 Game 6: Pittsburgh def. Minnesota 8-0
The Pens won the Cup in this game, making "messages" a non-issue.


1990 Game 2: Edmonton def. Boston 7-1
Boston was stunned not only by the overwhelming Oilers, but also to a horrific series of injuries and poor defensive plays. As with the Panthers 6 years later, they simply skated out the clock and fell in a one-sided series.

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Thursday, June 4, 2009

A Star Wars guide to the Stanley Cup Finals

***WARNING***
Nerdiness Levels In This Entry May Be Hazardous To Children And The Elderly.
Do not read if you are pregnant, on medication, or recovering from a WoW addiction.

Galactic Empire = Detroit

A fading empire, ruthless and hopelessly corrupt, concerned only with hoarding power and influence, yet unable to adjust when challenged by smaller, smarter opponents. And that's just GM.



Rebel Alliance = Pittsburgh



All great rebellions begin in the hinterlands, in places so desperate that lonesome farmboys turn to religion and violence as a relief from their boredom. Western Pennsylvania sounds about right.

Princess Leia = Stanley Cup


Ooh, purty! Losta guys are gonna fight over this little lady, and more than a few are going to sneak a kiss before it's all over. Careful boys, she's been for a few skates around the rink already...

Luke Skywalker = Sidney Crosby


The Messiah, the Anointed One, the whiny brat who thinks he's a great leader at age 20.

Darth Vader = Henrik Zetterberg

Don't fuck with this guy. He will own you.


Han Solo = Evgeni Malkin


He might not get all the publicity, but he's the guy you really wanted to be when you grew up. At the end of the day, you can thank this cool cat for blasting Vader's ass and gifting the Golden Child his moment of glory.

Admiral Ackbar = Dan Bylsma


We're never offered a good explanation for putting this guy in such a position of authority. His primary role is to stand by the sidelines and figure out a way to beat the trap.


The Emperor = Mike Babcock




Don't bother adjusting your matchups or changing your strategy. He's already foreseen your moves and countered them in advance. Now he's going to make you watch as he destroys your pitiful band of rebels.

Jabba the Hutt = Gary Bettman


"Soon, you will learn to appreciate me..."

C-3P0 = Pierre McGuire


Go away, nobody likes you.


Mike Milbury = Gamorrean Guard


He doesn't let his lack of intelligence or speaking ability get in the way of his duties. Best not to leave him in charge of anything really important, such as guarding a prisoner or running an NHL franchise.


Bib Fortuna = Mike Emrick



Spends most of his time avoiding criticism of the boss-man. Is anyone else distracted by the shape of his head?



Chewbacca = Hal Gill


Raaaawwwrrrrr!!!

Lando Calrissian = Bill Guerin

Bet you forgot this guy was alive, didn't ya? Instead of retiring quietly to obscurity, he's back for one last shot at redemption.

Boba Fett = Marian Hossa

The bounty hunter knows no allegiances.

Obi Wan Kenobi = Mario Lemieux

A legend in his own time, he now gazes from above and offers quiet words of wisdom to his protegee'.

R2-D2 = Chris Osgood

Somehow, you have a faint inkling that the story is really not about the Golden Boy at all, but about this little spare part who always seems to show up at the right moment and save the superstars' asses.

Darth Maul = Johan Franzen

As if the Empire needed this guy on top of everything else they've got going for them. It's not even fair.


The NBC broadcast team interviews Gary Bettman.


Porkins = Eric Godard

You knew as soon as you saw this guy that he wouldn't be around for long.

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