Our Crazy Division (aka, WTF happened while I was gone???)

Free-agent frenzies are always a spectacle, but my experience of the past week has been truly surreal.


Six days ago, my wife and I left the Port of New Orleans to celebrate our 10th anniversary with a Carribbean cruise. During our time abroad, I had literally no connection to the outside world -- cell coverage was nonexistent, internet was outrageously expensive, and sitting around watching TV was out of the question.


Yesterday we arrived back in port. With dry land came a cell signal, and the first opportunity to read through five bizarre days of Northeast Division mayhem. I was taken aback by what I saw:

Mike Komisarek is a Maple Leaf. What the.... really??? How do things like this happen? I don't know who has the bigger balls, Komisarek for signing a contract with the Leafs or Brian Burke for offering it. This will of course make the Leafs a little better and give Komisarek some welcome relief from being over his head as a top-pairing defenseman. But more importantly, the Boston/Montreal/Toronto drama just got bumped up another notch.

Better get used to it, Mike.

Alex Kovalev is a Sen. A signing so bad I want to laugh and cringe at the same time. The Sens have chemistry problems, depth problems, locker room problems and a star winger holding out and refusing trades at the same time. So what do they do? Acquire a coach-killing prima donna who's notorious for his inconsistency. Yeah, that really helps. And from Kovalev's point of view... why??? So he can be mocked in the twilight of his career? Yeesh.

Scott Gomez, Mike Cammalleri, Brian Gionta, Jaro Spacek and Hal Gill are Canadiens, but Saku Koivu is not. Bob Gainey must be on the clock to produce a winning team; there is no other explanation for this McRebuild. The Habs add a little bit of character to replace the disgraceful "leadership" of last season, but at what cost? With the exception of Cammalleri, this is a list of guys who were supposed to be stars by now and have become second-liners instead. Gomez is a coach killer and Gill is a pylon. This experiment will not last long.



Colton Orr is a Leaf. Go ahead and open Youtube in your browser the next time the Leafs and Bruins play. That way, you'll be the first on the scene for the Lucic/Orr footage.



Steve Montador is a Sabre. Good riddance, ya bum. Buffalo is going to rue the day they let Spacek go and signed this turnover machine.



Steve Begin is a Bruin. I'm trying to get excited about this, but really... it's a dumb signing. Presumably this means Stephane Yelle will not be returning, which is a shame because he's better than Begin. It also means the Bruins have made their logjam at the center position even more complicated, while ignoring the wings again.

Um, ok... I guess we needed this guy for some reason. Maybe.

Nik Antropov is a Thrasher. Good for him. Antropov is one of those pseudo-stars who will thrive with low expectations and good linemates. He's a legit top-6, and the Thrashers need as many as they can get.


Chris Higgins is a Ranger. They found the cash to sign Mathieu Darche, but couldn't keep a heart-and-soul guy like Higgins?


Martin St. Pierre is a Sen, Jeremy Reich is an Isle, and Shane Hnidy is a Wild. Three signings that will affect your fantasy pool in no way whatsoever.



So where does the dust settle?

Toronto is trending up.
Ottawa is trending down.
Buffalo is trending down.
Montreal is holding even for now, but will be down in the long run.
Boston is holding even.

Could the Bruins pursue Heatley?

Just an undigested idea that crossed my mind when I saw this article.

Dany Heatley - Cap hit $7.5 million

Phil Kessel - Asking $5 million in contract renegotiations
PJ Axelsson - Cap hit $1.8 million, contract ends 7/1/09.

Blockbuster trades between division rivals are unusual, but still... allowing Axelsson to walk and then sign-and-trading Kessel to Ottawa would solve a lot of problems for both the Bruins and Sens. The wing-for-wing swap would ensure roster stability, Boston gets a reliable 40-50 goal scorer and the Sens get a silver lining for their rebuild. Ottawa gets a bit of wiggle room under the cap and the Bruins spend slightly more for a much better winger.

A complimentary deal would likely need to be made, since this would leave the Bs weak at RW. Perhaps moving Sturm or Bergeron for a less-expensive winger would help fill that gap and restore some cap space.

Before you write it off, think: Heatley-Savard-Ryder. It would be pretty, if not gritty.

The Blogosphere's Most Daring Northeast Division Preview

Much like Top 10 lists and Youtube tributes, season previews are the kind of stuff that bloggers use to justify their existence during the long, hockeyless summer. Since all the predictions go out the window as soon as the first puck is dropped, I see no reason to play a conservative game with these things.

Therefore, here are a few predictions that you're probably already thinking but would never say out loud:

- Barring an unexpected change in personnel, the Boston Bruins are the favorite to win the Northeast Division this season. Mark it.
- The Canadiens, in addition to being the Eastern Conference equivalent to the Sharks, are the most overrated team in the league.
- Mats Sundin is not going to be worth all the trouble.

Don't like my predictions? Get your own friggin' blog.

(Teams are listed in order of predicted finish)

Boston

Key change - Patrice Bergeron's return is going to grab all the headlines in Boston, but more significant to the Bruins' fortunes is the performance of Michael Ryder. Conventional wisdom says he should get much better ice time under Claude Julien, bond with setup artists Bergeron and Marc Savard, and return to the 30-goal level. But if he fails to find his game, the Bruins will be without a legit top-line RW and could be in for a season of deflecting media pressure around Ryder.

Biggest obstacle - The Bruins simply don't have a superstar player capable of putting the puck in the net more than 40 times per season. Therefore the pressure to score goals often falls to guys like Savard and Milan Lucic, who frankly aren't capable of carrying that kind of burden.

Daring prediction - Boston sports fans, without Tom Brady as their object of fanboi obsession, realize that the local hockey club has two starting goalies, a studly defense and two lines' worth of talented young forwards. By May the Celtics will be the second team in Boston to win a 2009 division title.

Montreal

Key change - The Habs quietly allowed Mark Streit to sign with the minor-league Islanders this offseason. An injury to Andrei Markov would leave the Canadiens without a reliable 10-goal scorer on the blue line. Across the course of 82 games that might turn out to be a pretty bad gamble.

Biggest obstacle - Carey Price was the darling of the league through much of last season, but the Roy/Dryden comparisons might be a tad premature. "Sacre bleu! Price has won at every level of hockey! He's a winner!", say ze Habs fans from behind their rouge-colored glasses. Remember, we were saying that about Chris Drury several years ago... until he was expected to carry a team alone and fell right off the map. If Price crumbles under pressure, the backup is Marc Denis. That's like having only one reliable 10-goal scoring defenseman.

Daring prediction - True to form, it's an off year for Kovalev and Koivu. The Habs come to regret putting all their faith in Markov and Price, and find that losing 7-6 sucks just as much as losing 2-1. The Montreal media eats this young team alive, and a 5th-place finish is poor consolation for a season of wasted dreams.

Ottawa

Key change - Never has a team relied so heavily on addition by subtraction. The exodus of talent out of Ottawa - Emery, Redden, Meszaros, Commodore, Stillman - has left the Sens with fewer distractions but a schizophrenic identity. With some of the league's top-end talent juxtaposed against bottom-feeders like Brad Isbister and Jarkko Ruutu, the Senators have little choice but to break up their fearsome first line of Heatley/Spezza/Alfredsson.

Biggest obstacle - Let's not mince words. The Senators have positively the worst goaltending in the league. Martin Gerber is this generation's Damian Rhodes, and Alex Auld is a minor-leaguer at heart. Barring a stunning reversal in one of these guys' career, or a blockbuster deal (likely), the Sens are going to have a hard time keeping pucks out of the net even if they overachieve on defense.

Daring prediction - Reports of the Senators' demise are a tad premature. They still have top-flight talent and an underrated blueline. By the end of the season this team will undergo a total personality makeover, swing a deal for Khabibulin and make the playoffs.

Buffalo

Key change - Buffalo will be without the services of Brian Campbell and Dmitri Kalinin this season, and made only a small addition to the blueline (Rivet) to try and mitigate the damage. Like the Habs, they will be perilously thin at the point; unlike the Habs they don't have Andrei Markov. Sabres fans think they have already moved on from Campbell's departure, but wait until they get a load of their power play this season.

Biggest obstacle - This might be a problem year for Ryan Miller. He had the good fortune to join the Sabres at the same time they hit their peak, and was the darling of Buffalo in advance of his 5-year, "face of the franchise" contract. But this season he will truly be under the gun to rescue a struggling squad which is looking more and more like a lottery team. Frustrated goalies are rarely good goalies.

Daring prediction - By April, Lindy Ruff is no longer the coach of the Buffalo Sabres.

Toronto

Key change - The Leafs have finally made the transition into a true rebuilding mode, shipping out more baggage than Air Canada over the summer. If Mats Sundin decides to head for greener pastures, it's a given that his departure becomes the biggest change from last season... but in any case the team has ditched its old identity and begun to take steps toward a new era.

Biggest obstacle - Oh, just pick anything.

Daring prediction - Sundin has not made a decision by November 1st, becoming a Forsberg-esque distraction to the entire league. He then re-signs with the Leafs for less than he made last season, just to piss everyone off.