Gaborik to Boston -- In Three Easy (And Highly Unlikely) Steps!

Since this rumor won't go away, let's address it head-on.

DISCLAIMER: I think it's quite farfetched that the Bruins would pursue Gaborik at this time. Hopefully they have learned from the cautionary tales of teams which threw the proverbial kitchen sink at a handful of individuals rather than building a deep, well-rounded team. Furthermore, it seems to me that the B's are at least 1-2 full seasons away from making a major free-agent acquisition toward a Cup run, and by that time they will probably have developed at least a couple of reliable 40-goal scorers from within. But for now I will accept the hypothesis that Pete Chiarelli considers Gaborik the next step toward Stanley Cup glory.



Step #1: Trade or waive Manny Fernandez

This is the toughest part of the equation, because there is no "ideal" option for making it happen. Fernandez carries very little trade value due to his injury history and less-than-insipring comeback effort so far this season. The Bruins would be well-served to wait until he strings together a few decent games and shop him for some kind of return in futures -- either a 2nd or 3rd round draft pick or a prospect from some desperate team. But that risks the possibility that he could be re-injured or simply melt down before the trigger is pulled... or that nobody would take the bait, in which case the only option would be the waiver wire. I believe that if Fernandez were waived he would be snatched up by the Avs, who have the cap space and the need for a decent puckstopper. In this case the Bruins would lose a $4.3 million, former #1 goaltender and get nothing in return.



Step #2: Offer either Phil Kessel or Blake Wheeler for Gaborik

Another tough decision, as Kessel and Wheeler are both excellent long-term projects for the Bruins and appear to be making large strides this season. But these are the only two players on the roster who would be suitable returns for Gaborik, carry a large enough salary ($2m+) to clear significant cap room, AND would not be considered a crippling loss to the Bruins franchise.



Step #3: Negotiate a $7m-ish/year contract

This is the biggest risk of all for Boston. The truth is that Gaborik is worth between 7 and 8 million on the open market, yet he has reportedly turned down a long-term offer from the Wild in the range of $10m/year. Conventional wisdom says that he's stonewalling the Wild regardless of their offer sheets and will take less money to play elsewhere. But as Pittsburgh found out this summer, conventional wisdom is often misguided. It's entirely possible that Gaborik, upon being traded to the Bruins, would stonewall Chiarelli as well and simply leave town as a free agent. In that case the Bruins would have traded a quasi-#1 goaltender and a future star forward for half a season of Gaborik. Bottom line: Gaborik MUST be receptive to a $7-8 million multi-year contract with Boston before any move is made.


Of course, this would have a massive long-term impact on the Bruins roster and cap situation. Gaborik and Chara would combine for a cap impact of $15m/year, and the Bruins would be squeezed against the ceiling for the forseeable future. Not to mention that if Gaborik is injured, underperforms or simply leaves town the Bruins will have lost significant futures in either Kessel or Wheeler.

The upside, of course, would be the addition of the first 50-goal threat since Cam Neely. It's much more difficult to win a Cup without at least one top-level scoring threat, so the addition of Gaborik would at least superficially signal a serious commitment to building a top-quality team.

Overall quality of this trade for the Bruins: 7 on a scale of 10
Likelihood of it actually happening: 4 on a scale of 10

Good Signs of Things to Come

When Tim Thomas woke up in a waterbed covered in whisky and urine this morning, these were the fuzzy memories that cycled through his head:

- Blake Wheeler laying Darcy Tucker flat on his ass, then scoring his first career goal in his first career game.
- Marc Savard making a nifty (almost)no-look pass to Michael Ryder, who buried it like a guy who can score 30 goals.
- Patrice Bergeron being stoned on three brilliant opportunities, yet still managing a 2-point game.
- Phil Kessel whirling around the ice like a dynamo, or a guy trying not to be traded.
- David Krejci not missing a beat since last season.
- Aaron Ward shattering the glass with a slapshot.
- Zdeno Chara taking one decent slapshot all night, and ringing it right off Savard and into the net.
- Chuck Kobasew being an X factor, and picking up 2 assists.
- Dennis Wideman scoring a +3.
- Chara blocking 6 shots.
- Andrew Ference getting 6 takeaways.
- Milan Lucic throwing 5 hits in 13 minutes.
- Despite all of that, Thomas having to make 35 shots to preserve a crazy win... the first time the Bruins have won an opener since Steve Shields was the #1 goalie.
- Some twat from Def Leppard inverting the Stanley Cup, possibly with Satanic significance.

He's pretty confused about that last memory, which might have had something to do with the crusted blood on his nose, but Timmy Tom will sleep easy tonight knowing it's turning out to be a damned fine road trip already.

Bruins Training Camp: Top 5 Storylines

1) Two's company, three's a crowd
Coming into camp, we knew that Tim Thomas and Manny Fernandez would be fighting for the starting spot in goal. What we didn't know was that Tuukka Rask would emerge as the leading contender.

As if it's not complicated enough already, the Bruins are now operating with a 1A/1B/1C goalie tandem. Thomas and Fernandez have both looked rusty at times, while Rask appears cool and confident against big-league snipers. It's unlikely that the Finn will find himself in the driver's seat before the New Year, but he's giving Bruins management a good reason to take a Habs-like approach to their goaltending controversy.

2) Trade coming down the tracks
Hubhockey.com quotes Pete Chiarelli as saying there is a "better than 50 percent" chance that the Bruins will make a salary-clearing trade in the next few days. Phil Kessel's name is being floated as a possible piece of trade bait, though I suspect there would be a minor revolt in the fanbase if Kessel were traded so early in his development. Peter Schaefer, on the other hand, is probably keeping a packed suitcase handy -- if Chiarelli can't find a trade parter, waiving Schaefer wouldn't be out of the question.

[update: The Boston Herald has dropped Marc Savard's name as a possible casualty in a blockbuster trade. This would be not only shocking, but senseless for a host of reasons -- Savard nearly led the league in assists last season on a defensive-minded team, Patrice Bergeron is still a question mark as #1 center, the Ryder/Savard combo would be gone, and frankly it just doesn't make sense for the Bruins to make a blockbuster trade right now.]

3) Lucic struggles
Milan Lucic is all the rage in Boston these days, with Cam Neely comparisons being thrown about quite liberally among the fans and media. So the big winger's lack of production in the preseason might be a damper on the hype -- perhaps it wasn't such a good idea to assume that the 19-year-old would enjoy a Hall of Fame career before being crippled by Ulf Samuelsson.

In 4 preseason games, including an 8-3 thrashing of the Habs, Lucic has one secondary assist. That's not exactly top-line production, and suggests that extra defensive attention might become a factor in the dreaded sophomore season. Keep an eye on Looch's development, because it will figure into expectations not only for this season, but the Bruins' long-term outlook as well. The Bruins Hockey Blog suggests we might still be a year or two away from seeing the "real" Lucic.

4) Wheeler rolling
A counterbalance to Lucic's struggles is the encouraging play of Blake Wheeler. The young winger, who ditched the Coyotes organization to play in Boston, has been turning heads with a goal and three assists so far in the preseason. By all appearances, Wheeler has earned at least a brief opportunity to impress at the NHL level, probably displacing Jeremy Reich as a 4th-line winger. As a #5 overall pick in 2004 (just behind some guys named Ovechkin, Malkin, Barker and Ladd) Wheeler was expected to be a future All-Star -- perhaps we're seeing a turning point in Bruins history. The Bear Cave details Wheeler's chances of snagging a roster spot.

5) Ghosts of Injuries Past
Like the goaltending issue, this storyline has been played to death in the media already. Nevertheless, B's fans will be on the injury watch for the first several weeks of the season to ensure that several key players are able to recover from the injury-riddled 07-08 campaign. The Bruins Hockey Blog reports that Zdeno Chara is expected to suit up tonight in Montreal, testing his injured shoulder for the first time this preseason. In the same game, Manny Fernandez will continue to work on his recovery from IR, and of course Patrice Bergeron will be on the watch list all season to ensure he's not the next Lindros.

Fortunately, the Bruins don't face the Flyers until February.

Big Bad Bruins... reborn?

NHL.com's front-page article on Bruins prospect Brad Marchand features the tagline "Getting His Act Together". The gist of the article is that Marchand has plenty of talent but also has a history of disciplinary issues (including being benched by Ted Nolan in juniors). The juicy question: does this guy have enough character to succeed in the NHL?

This has become a familiar refrain in the Bruins front office under Pete Chiarelli's reign. For pretty much every acquisition of the past 2 years you can add the general comment: "He's got character issues but loads of talent -- let's hope he's worth the risk!". In addition to Marchand, the Bruins have rolled the dice on:

Phil Kessel - Allan Muir recently wrote an S.I. article calling him the "NHL version of T.O.". Nuff said.
Blake Wheeler - Gave the stiff-arm to the 'Yotes after underwhelming as a college player.
Carl Soderberg - See previous thread. Arrrrr.

In a best-case scenario these players could be the forward core of a dynasty. In a worst-case scenario it's a lineup of suspects in the murder of a franchise.

But let's not forget that in the Bruins' glory days of the mid-'70s they carried a little swagger to go along with their talent. Phil Esposito, Brad Park, Derek Sanderson, Wayne Cashman... these guys weren't exactly of the Sakic/Yzerman/Bourque school of quiet excellence. All of them brought character risks to the table, and the combination turned out to be one of the most effective in league history. They were the "Bad Boys" of pro sports when Isiah Thomas and Dennis Rodman were shooting on an 8-foot basket.

Whether the Bruins develop a dynastic chip-on-the-shoulder mentality, or implode like so many other ill-conceived adventures in team-building, is going to fall largely in the lap of coach Claude Julien. At the same time that he's managing the team's veteran players (tag-team goalies, mind-melding Ryder and Savard, coaxing a rebound season out of Axelsson), Julien must channel the youthful energy of the prospects into a vision for long-term success.

Of course, Phil Esposito once said the Big Bad Bruins could've won 5 Cups in a row if they'd been a little more focused.

Bruins Prospect Preview (or, the legend of the one-eyed Swede)

If you have made it all the way to this corner of the interweb, chances are you are already familiar with Hockey's Future, the best online resource available for researching prospects. Considering I rely pretty heavily on them for scouting notes on young players, I thought I ought to go ahead and give them a shameless promo up front.

But we're not here to talk about the possibility of my getting reimbursed for that comment. We're here to talk about new talent in the Bruins organization.

One of the most positive developments that the B's have pulled off in the Pete Chiarelli Era is the shift away from using veterans as key roster pieces (compare to the veteran-laden rebuilding effort in Toronto, which might go on for another 10 years) and the quick development of young talent to replace them. This season we should see a major shift forward as several youngsters are on the verge of losing the "prospect" label and becoming full-time contributors in the big league. In particular, Milan Lucic and David Krejci will be expected to take some of the ice time freed up by Glen Murray's departure.

Looking deeper in the organization, this is what's coming down the pipeline:

G Tuukka Rask - The Bruins have done the right thing with Rask, signing veterans Tim Thomas and Manny Fernandez to keep the ship stable while Rask develops in the AHL. All indicators suggest that Rask will be the next elite goaltender to break into the NHL, and frankly we can afford to wait as long as necessary to be sure that he's truly ready when the time arrives. But there is no question that Rask is the heir-apparent to the starting spot in Boston, so if either of the Bruins' goalies go down with injury or are otherwise unserviceable, don't be suprised to see Chiarelli "cheat" a little in hopes of finding instant success.

RW Blake Wheeler - A steal from the Coyotes organization, Wheeler has the size and skills to be a long-term contributor in the NHL. There are persistent questions about his character, though, and that might be the biggest obstacle to his development. He'll likely start the season in Providence, but I expect he'll be playing regular minutes in Boston by the end of the season. Certainly the best winger prospect in the Bruins system right now.

D Matt Lashoff - Having done pretty much everything expected of him in the AHL, Lashoff should be ready to break through this season. Like Wheeler he'll probably start the season in Providence, but as soon as a defenseman is injured in Boston he's the obvious choice for a callup. At this point he would seem like a good third-pairing prospect, and might get some PK time given his defensive skill.

C Vladimir Sobotka - The list of centermen in Boston is a bit crowded, and Sobotka may end up being the odd man out. He played 48 games with the Big B's last season and scored only once... not much of a recommendation for a smallish forward with average speed. Winning only 48.6% of his faceoffs doesn't help. He'll get another shot this year, but consider him trade bait if he doesn't improve quickly. At best he might develop into a second-rate agitator.

C Zach Hamill - Another center most likely to spend the majority of the season in Providence. Hamill seems to have a little more upside than Sobotka and I don't get the sense that he's as vulnerable to being traded. Someone to keep an eye on in a couple of years.

C Carl Soderberg - The white elephant of the Bruins organization. Folks on the other side of the pond say he's got the skill to be a contributor at the NHL level, perhaps even a potential All-Star, but an eye injury and general lack of interest in playing in North America put a damper on that enthusiasm. Apparently he has agreed to play in the Bruins system this season, but teams have been known to wrongfully hitch their wagons to a moody European scorer in the past.