Is there any hope for the Avalanche?

What a mess.

Ten years ago, anyone's list of the top general managers in the NHL would have included Colorado's Pierre Lacroix. At that time the Avs were one of the league's premier franchises, possessed perhaps the largest stockpile of raw talent ever assembled, and challenged Detroit for dominance of the Western Conference. The architect of their mini-dynasty was Lacroix, who was especially noted for his crafty trades and free-agency gambles.

My, how quickly time passes in the NHL.

Today the Avs are a humbled franchise -- their record streak of division titles is a distant memory, and their home sellout streak has followed suit. While attendance has dropped to Predator-like levels, franchise keystones such as Joe Sakic and Patrick Roy have shown no interest in being associated with the basement-dwelling years to come. Last month the Avalanche fired coach Tony Granato, but only after letting him twist in the wind for weeks while offering his job to former teammate Roy -- who politely turned them down.

How could this happen?

To get our heads around the scale of the Avs' regression, we have to look back at the roster moves made during their salad years. Take a peek, if you dare, at their first-round draft picks of the past 15 years:

95 - Marc Denis
96 - Peter Ratchuk
97 - Kevin Grimes
98 - Alex Tanguay, Martin Skoula, Robyn Regehr, Scott Parker
99 - Mikhail Kuleshov
00 - Vaclav Nedorost
01 - none
02 - Jonas Johansson
03 - none
04 - Wojtek Wolski
05 - none
06 - Chris Stewart
07 - Kevin Shattenkirk
08 - none
09 - Matt Duchene

What's worse -- having only two serviceable players to show for 15 first-round picks, or having missed the first round altogether 4 out of 9 times leading into a rebuild?

Digging a little deeper, it's clear to see that Lacroix (and his brief successor, Francois Giguere) handcuffed the organization with a pattern of win-now-pay-later trades during his time as GM. The Avs have two Cups to show for his efforts, and that is not to be marginalized, but look at the long-term effects that these trades had in the long run:

2/28/1999
To Colorado: Theo Fleury, Chris Dingman - Fleury had 33 good games in Colorado, then ditched them for New York. Dingman played a few seasons as a role player.
To Calgary: Robyn Regehr, Rene Corbet, Wade Belak - Regehr wears an "A" in Calgary and has a good shot at making Canada's Olympic roster. Belak is still a marginal player in the league.

3/6/2000
To Colorado: Ray Bourque, Dave Andreychuk - Short-term additions to a Cup run, but neither stayed in the organization for more than 18 months.
To Boston: Brian Rolston, Sammy Pahlsson, Martin Grenier, 1st round pick (Martin Samuelsson) - Both Rolston and Pahlsson are among the league's most versatile players, and both will likely be playing in the Olympics this February.

10/1/2002
To Colorado: Derek Morris, Dean McAmmond, Jeff Shantz - Morris was a standout for the Avs but was traded after only two seasons (see below); neither McAmmond nor Shantz played for Colorado the following season.
To Calgary: Chris Drury, Stephane Yelle - In Drury's prime he nearly hit 40 goals with Buffalo; Yelle still a fine defensive center at age 35.

3/9/2004
To Colorado: Chris Gratton, Ossi Vaananen, 2nd round pick (Paul Stastny) - Only the Stastny pick makes this trade palatable. Gratton and Vaananen scored a grand total of 4 goals for the Avalanche.
To Phoenix: Derek Morris, Keith Ballard - Morris played 4 solid seasons in Phoenix before being dealt to the Rangers for three roster players; Ballard helped the Coyotes acquire Olli Jokinen.

3/9/2004 (the same day!)
To Colorado: Tommy Salo and a 6th-round pick - Salo won all of 1 game for Colorado.
To Edmonton: Tom Gilbert - Broke Paul Coffey's team record for scoring by a rookie defenseman, and is considered one of the top young defensemen in the game.

3/8/2006
To Colorado: Jose Theodore - The former Hart winner flamed out in Roy's shadow, achieving career-worst numbers and eventually skipping town.
To Montreal: David Aebischer - A disappointment for the Habs, but that's only part of the story. Aebischer was only the first of a series of netminders to stagnate in Colorado, a trend which continued with their recent signing of Craig Anderson.

In sum, the Avalanche organization traded away the better part of a perennially competitive roster -- one which could have been built around Drury, Rolston, Regehr and Gilbert -- in order to establish a degree of insurance on their playoff runs of the early 2000s.

Lacroix was praised as a genius at the time, but his roster was based almost entirely on talent gifted to him from Quebec (Sakic, Forsberg, Foote) and Montreal (Roy, Keane). He was able to draft a mere 6 players who would go on to win the Stanley Cup with his organization, including duds such as Aebischer and Scott Parker, and they all came out of the three drafts between 1996 and 1998. Every other roster addition came at a price to the organization's future.

And it would appear those lessons are hard-learned in the Avs front office -- as recently as February 2008 they were trading top draft picks for over-the-hill veterans (Adam Foote) and paying top dollar for complementary players (Ryan Smyth).

Where do they go from here?

Sakic's decision to step away from the organization after 20 years, and Roy's refusal to be seduced into the coaching position, marks a turning point for the Avalanche. The last vestiges of their dynasty years are falling by the wayside, and new leaders are entering the fold.

Denver's best hope is that #3-overall pick Matt Duchene will develop in the same mold as 2006's third-overall, Jonathan Toews. The Avalanche desperately need a dynamic player who can deliver leadership as well as production. They already have a young forward core in Stastny, Wolski and Stewart, but none of those players will be a blue-chip player in the NHL.

But the real damage to Colorado's future is in the defensive end of the ice. The loss of four good defensemen via trade has left the Avs with a patchwork identity on the blue line. Half of them are veterans are far beyond their prime; half are former prospects who failed to pan out as hoped; almost all are lucky to collect an NHL paycheck. And the tandem of Budaj and Anderson in net is merely a placekeeper until the Avs can find a true #1.

This summer we have seen the first steps toward a true rebuild in Colorado. A new GM (Greg Sherman) and a new head coach (Joe Sacco), neither of whom brings NHL experience in their position, will enjoy the lack of pressure to win immediately. More importantly, Sherman's first major trade is a clear break with their history: overpaid veteran Ryan Smyth was shipped to LA for a pair of NHL-ready defensive prospects. For once, long-term investments are coming into Denver instead of being sent away.

But unless their prospects make a shockingly quick adjustment to life in the NHL, Colorado will remain in the wilderness for some time to come. Though Avalanche fans will enjoy the emotional retirement of Joe Sakic's number at their home opener, it might be the last meaningful event at the Pepsi Center until the 2010 entry draft.

Great reads from around the blogosphere

It's the middle of the week, I've got work to do, so here are some quality links in place of actual thoughts:

• Best link of the day -- Jim Kelley showing us another side of Joe Sakic, one that isn't easily pimped on ESPN but is relevant nonetheless. The league is losing one of its best.



• Obama is taking a bit of heat from hockey bloggers, but here's an encouraging read from the Washington Post about the growth of the game in DC. Glove tap to On Frozen Blog for the find.



• Just as everyone is jumping on board the Blackhawks bandwagon, The Program has a little dose of reality. Could the Hawks, Pens and Bruins all be moving too quickly? A post for another day.



• Speaking of the Hawks, here's another look at their disasterous Summer of '08.



• Lions in Winter has been coming up with some great stuff this week. Namely, an in-depth look at coach killers and a rundown of Canadien prospects who are falling through the cracks. I have a sick fascination with obscure players and highly-touted busts, so this is a preview of guys I will be mocking in 5 years.



• Speaking of the Habs, here's an insightful look at Tomas Plekanec. Thankfully, not every player is a Dany Heatley.



• Red Light District is doing an Ultimate Playoffs tournament. It's nigh impossible to read this and not end up with strong opinions.



• The Sens need to give Heatley's "A" to... somebody. The fact that Kovalev is even a candidate boggles the mind.



• Oops! Looks like the Pronger deal counts as an over-35. The Bruins ran into this snafu with Tim Thomas... looks like GMs are asleep at the wheel when it comes to the fine print on this rule.

And in doesn't-merit-a-link news, LeTurtle is finally calling it quits. Good riddance to old rubbish.

Hockey South of the Border: The Man Behind Big Z's Slapshot

Mike McGrath knows what it takes to put the puck in the net.

Quick -- make a mental list of the top 5 most important places in hockey.

Ok, time's up. Chances are your list included Toronto, Montreal, and three states that start with "M". Maybe you threw in Moose Jaw, just for fun. But as Mike McGrath can tell you, you're not a real hockey insider unless your list includes Tijuana.

Yes, that Tijuana. It's the birthplace of nearly 60% of the NHL's composite sticks, the space-age technology that has altered the boundaries of possibility for players as diverse as Zdeno Chara and Joe Sakic. Composite sticks are perhaps the most revolutionary piece of hockey equipment since the goalie mask.

McGrath has spent the past 10 years as Pro Hockey Product Manager for Easton, the world's largest composite stick manufacturer. He spoke with me via telephone from Easton's plant in Tijuana, which turns out 7,000 sticks in a typical week -- including personalized sticks for some of the NHL's biggest stars.


HCTB: The audience might be surprised to find out that the majority of NHL sticks are made in Mexico.

MM: You know, it's funny. Back when it was wood sticks, they were all made in and around Quebec. But since we've moved to composite shafts, there's been a shift toward San Diego, and across the border in Mexico. There's now a slow migration toward China, but for now most composite sticks are made in this area.


HCTB: What's the state of the game in Tijuana... are the locals aware of ice hockey?

MM: Not really. I don't think they have any idea about how important the area is for us... there are no ice rinks in Tijuana, just a little roller hockey.

*Easton isn't the only brand which has moved its operations outside of US and Canadian borders. Warrior also produces its sticks in Tijuana. Nike/Bauer and RBK/CCM make their composite sticks in China. *


HCTB: For youth and amateur players, composite sticks can be cost-prohibitive. Do you forsee a future in which they can be produced cheaply, and made more widely available?

MM: We're always striving to bring price points down. You kinda get stuck in providing the highest performing product, because that's where we get the most demand. But the retail side encourages our engineers to get passionate about providing products in the $29.99 range. Everyone's trying to pace themselves down so that we don't cannibalize our higher end products. Eventually you have to start using cheaper and cheaper materials. The challenge is to design less expensive equipment that can still perform.

*In this year's playoffs, several Bruins used Easton sticks: Zdeno Chara, Michael Ryder, Dennis Wideman, Aaron Ward, PJ Axelsson, Steve Montador, and Vlad Sobotka. They combined for 28 points in 11 games. *


HCTB: If you're in a pro shop, what do you look for in a stick?

MM: I look at two things: durability and performance. You're going to get more mileage out of certain models. The size of the player and the style of play, even at the amateur level... some kids are so big nowadays that they have to get more durability out of a stick. The size of the players and the force of the impact really affects the durability.

Z, you might want to send Mike McGrath a Christmas card this year.

HCTB: At the All-Star Game back in February, the Bruins' Zdeno Chara broke the longstanding slapshot record using an Easton S15. What was going through your head when you saw that?

MM: We [at Easton] had done well on accuracy and skating already, so when we saw it was down to Souray, Shea [Weber] and Z, we got pretty excited because they all use our sticks. I was at the game with the general manager and when Z broke the record we were all very excited, to put it mildly.

Chara's stick is unique because of the length -- we have to engineer it for the full 60 inches. Basically the stick we build for him is two times as stiff as for any other player. We provided him with 20 sticks, with 3 flex models that he can change according to how he feels. So he uses a different stick at the beginning of the season, or when he's injured because his body feels a little different.

*The top 3 shooters in the Hardest Shot competition used McGrath's sticks. So did 5th-place Mark Streit. *


HCTB: Without revealing trade secrets, what is Easton doing to improve the quality of its sticks?

MM: There's a different stiffness to each model. We make a particular region of the shaft stiffer and softer to have a smoother and nicer feel. Each has a unique profile, and we always work back to a profile that the players like.


HCTB: Broken sticks have been a growing issue in the NHL. How do you respond to criticism that sticks are breaking too frequently?

MM: We had a horrible run in 2004 with the Wild, where a lot of shafts were breaking, and that traced to a materials issue. After that the NHL actually implemented a drop-test that the sticks now have to pass before they can be used.

I wouldn't agree that breakage has increased. When you see a stick breaking on a pass, something like that, you know it had to have been compromised already, and that was just the last straw. And right now the challenge is to provide lighter products, not necessarily more durability. That's what teams are demanding today.

"You know it had to have been compromised already." Either that or AO has really been working on his torque.

HCTB: Will we get to a point at which NHL players choose their stick based on the game situation, similar to the way a golfer chooses his clubs? For example, choosing a longer and sturdier stick during a penalty kill.

MM: We currently do make some situational sticks. I can't go into detail, but we're already doing it. There are more than 10 guys in the league right now using them. I hope it spreads because we have the facility to do it as a competitve advantage. It keeps us in the lead because we can go that extra mile. The higher level of customization I can provide my players, the more difficult it is for other companies to go after them.


HCTB: How do you feel about propositions to end the "illegal curve" rule in order to increase scoring?

MM: Ovechkin has what I consider one of the bigger curves. It really adds to the velocity that a stick can propel the puck. But Sid has a pretty flat blade and you see what he can do.

The thing that will keep it in check is when the owner sees a guy missing pucks, he'll go down and start asking questions. He'll want to know why a guy is missing passes, not able to make certain plays. I've seen it done. There are so many things you have to do in a game, you just can't get away with it [having an extreme curve].


HCTB: Which player has the most unusual stick configuration?

MM: Out of 370 players, probably 50 have a special designed blade or shaft. Joe Sakic has a special soft blade and a specially designed shaft. The only players who use it need to get special permission to use his pattern. Right now there are only 3 guys in the league who have done it.

*Note: Caps defenseman Mike Green used a Stealth S17 modelled after Joe Sakic's pattern... until it was discontinued during the playoffs. After scoring 31 goals in 68 games during the regular season, he tallied only once in 14 playoff games. *


HCTB: Finally, we're down to the Final Four. Who are you cheering for?

MM: You know, I'm really just cheering for the sport.... we get these millionaire guys on the ice, but when he scores a goal and you see his face up close, he looks like a 10-year-old kid on an ice pond. You don't really see that in other sports, not in the same way. These guys have a passion that is just different than anything you've ever seen. I really believe the speed and power and grace of this game will hook anyone if they can see it in person... that's why I cheer for the sport.