Death Watch: R.I.P. Sabres

There's nothing worse than finishing 10th.

Wait, yes there is: finishing 10th year after year.

You don't get a shot at upsetting a top seed in the playoffs. You don't get a good draft pick. You don't even get to enjoy the last few games of the season, because you're already out of contention. There's nothing comically bad about your team, yet nothing inspiring either. It's a realm of mediocrity that's virtually inescapable.

Such is life with the Buffalo Sabres.

It's pretty easy to identify what's gone wrong with this team -- the team's core was allowed to walk, and the leftovers simply haven't been that great. To put it bluntly, the Sabres are an utterly average team in every part of their game. Their stars -- Miller, Vanek, Roy, Spacek -- are respectably good but nobody would mistake them for marquee players. As a result, the Sabres are the league-median team in both goals scored and goals against. They're too average.

The big question in Buffalo is whether this is a team that can build its way into competitiveness. None of the team's forwards are over 31, and the aging defensemen all seem replacable. A few savvy roster moves could make this the next team to ascend quickly to the division title. A couple of key injuries could make it a lottery team.

One thing's certain: the franchise can't afford another 10th-place finish next season.

Death Watch: R.I.P. Stars

Another bubble team bites the dust.



This year's Stars had more drama than a Gray's Anatomy DVD set. Here are the top 5 reasons they won't make it to April as a serious playoff contender:


5) Sean Avery - Let's just get this one out of the way early. Avery was the wrong man on the wrong team. His Stars teammates, coaches, and front office eventually revealed him as a pariah. But by the time they had the good sense to cut him loose, the Stars were wallowing near the bottom of the conference. In a tough Western bracket, there was no room for a slow start.


4) Inconsistency - Coach Dave Tippett deserves credit for keeping the team afloat through long losing streaks, and occasionally leading them to victories over heavily-favored opponents. But the Stars couldn't sustain their winning momentum for long, and disasterous losing streaks were a regular feature of their season.

3) Massive injury problems - Think your team's injury issues are bad? The Stars have lost a league-high 322 man-games to injury. The victims have included Sergei Zubov, Brad Richards, Jere Lehtinen and Brenden Morrow... and a plethora of minor injuries that shortened the bench nightly.

2) Horrible goaltending - The biggest question-mark for the Stars is whether Marty Turco needs to move on. Turco leads the NHL in minutes-played, an indicator of how desperately Dallas needed him to carry the team. It's clear that he wasn't up to the task this season, logging disastrous numbers and generating loads of media criticism. Turco's career might not recover from this season.

1) Post-deadline meltdown - In spite of everything working against them, Dallas was still precariously in playoff position at the trade deadline. In fact, they were as high as 6th in the West as recently as March. But just as it seemed that there was a light at the end of the tunnel, the Stars nose-dived -- since March 17 they are 0-5-2. The bottom line is that you simply have to find a way to win your games, and the Stars just couldn't do it when it counted.

It'll be a contentious offseason in Dallas, as the team begins in earnest to cut ties with the Modano/Zubov/Turco era. But all hope isn't lost -- the team's core is mostly under 30, and youngsters like James Neal and Loui Eriksson should have the Stars back in the playoffs in the next couple of years.

Death Watch: R.I.P. Kings

Western teams are finally starting to fall out of the playoff race as we round the final turn of the regular season. This week's victim is the Kings, whose chances were rendered trivial by their 2-0 loss to the Blues last night.

The postmortem on the Kings' season is pretty simple -- they didn't score enough to win.

The Kings set a new NHL record by being shut-out an astonishing 9 times (that's roughly 1/9th of the complete season schedule) so far this season. Furthermore, they scored only 1 goal in 14 more of their games, meaning that roughly once per 4 games they required a shutout to win.

Surprisingly, they actually pulled it off from time to time -- 5 shutouts and a solid debut by goalie Jonathan Quick kept them in the playoff race. But with only 9 games left, a 4-win deficit, and five teams to leapfrog in order to get to the final playoff spot, hopes of squeaking in the back door have faded.

But there is hope on the horizon: the Kings seem ready to compete over the long-term in the brutally physical Pacific Division. They have perhaps the league's most promising blueline, led by rookie standout Drew Doughty and youngsters Jack Johnson, Kyle Quincey and Matt Greene. Kopitar, Frolov and Brown could be the forward nucleus of a dynasty in LA, but only if they add enough goals to the roster to take the next step. The Kings will spend the summer trying to decide whether now is the time to make a move for an elite scorer (think Gaborik) or if the young talent needs another year to build.

Death Watch Update: Stretch Run Edition

This is going to be a much more frequent feature over the next two weeks. With only about 10 games to play per team, the playoff bubble is quickly shrinking.

DEAD

These teams are toast, and probably wishing they'd lost more often for draft purposes.

Islanders

Thrashers

Lightning

Senators

Leafs

Avalanche

Coyotes

RISEN ZOMBIE-LIKE FROM THE GRAVE

Blues - WTF? These guys were out of contention by training camp, and were pronounced "DEAD" on the very first Death Watch in January. Since then they've been winning 3 out of every 4 games, and are now only a single victory away from the 8th seed. Their 3-game series against Columbus will have the atmosphere of the tournament in "Bloodsport".

ON THE DEATH WATCH

Kings - They've been tenacious, but the clock is running out. Their next 4 games -- Blues, Stars, Preds, Stars -- are all must-wins. After that it's a home-and-home against Phoenix. That stretch will either make or break LA's season.


Sabres - It's been tough to watch this train wreck after such a spunky season from Buffalo. A 1-5-1 stretch in March is poison, especially when it involves two losses to Ottawa. This week's games against Florida and Montreal are a last-chance opportunity for the slumping Sabres.

Stars - Yeah, they're only 3 points out of the 8th seed. But the Stars have an unfavorable schedule and just lost Brad Richards. They're already staring up the bracket at 4 other bubble teams, so there is almost no room for error as this team tries to right its losing streak.

SOMEHOW STILL KICKING

Panthers - This might be one of the NHL's best stories of the season, but also its most under-reported. GM Jacques Martin made an incredibly ballsy move at the trade deadline by not dealing Bouwmeester, gambling that the Panthers could make the playoffs and possibly convince their stud defenseman to give it another year or three in Miami. Today the Cats are only a point behind Montreal for that precious 8th seed.

Predators - If the most under-reported story isn't the Panthers, maybe the Preds deserve that title. Quietly, they're on an 8-2-3 streak that's got them in the 8th seed... for now. Nashville, virtually devoid of marquee players and led by obscurities like JP Dumont and Pekka Rinne, has a brutal schedule down the stretch.

Ducks - It's time for someone to be a hero in Anaheim, which fights for its playoff life tomorrow night in Nashville. The Ducks are on a mini-streak (3-0-0) but are one of the league's least consistent teams. Anaheim has to avoid the too-predictable losing streak, or they're going to be done in short order.

Wild - Hobbled by injuries, the Wild are going to count on Marian Gaborik's return to spark them into the playoffs. An ill-timed road trip and a schedule full of desperate teams won't make it any easier for Minnesota, who will need a good push to overcome the other Western bubble teams.

Death Watch Update: R.I.P. Avs, Coyotes

Western Conference teams have proven surprisingly resilient this season, but eventually someone had to fall out of the playoff race. Say goodbye to the Avs and Coyotes, who fought bravely until the trade deadline but finally gave in to harsh reality. It's obituary time...

Colorado was actually hanging around the playoff bubble for much of the season, outperforming expectations with a better-than-.500 record as of early February. But beginning with a loss to the cellar-dwelling Blues, they ripped off a brutal stretch of 3 wins in 13 games... all of the losses in regulation.

In fact, the Avs are a case study in the absurdity of the charity-point system. On one hand, they have an impressive 9-1 record in the shootout and have won an additional 2 games in OT -- racking up 11 "bonus" points for clutch victories. On the other hand, they have a paltry 1 point due to SO losses, by far the fewest in the league (in fact all other teams but the Devils have at least 5). In the Western Conference, 1 charity point will send you golfing in early April. At least the Avs can play spoiler: 13 of their final 14 games are against teams still in the playoff race.

Only a point ahead of the Avs are the woeful Coyotes, who were at one point the darlings of the league. After a home victory against Detroit on January 20th, Gretzky's squad was 24-19-5 and dreaming of home-ice in the first round of the playoffs.

Then the bottom fell out. Phoenix won only 1 of the next 10 games, abruptly falling out of the playoff race and finding themselves as sellers at the deadline. It's been eight games since they last scored more than 2 goals in a game, and losing Olli Jokinen didn't help in the scoring department. The Coyotes are now a loss away from the conference cellar, and it's difficult to imagine where the franchise will go from here.

Death Watch: R.I.P Leafs

They managed to hold out till February, but it's time to add the Maple Leafs to the "Dead" list.

Wednesday's brutal 5-0 whipping by the Sabres was the last nail in the coffin for Toronto, who now sit 11 points out of the playoffs with 30 games to play. The Leafs would need to go 22-8 over that stretch in order to reach 91 points, the bare-minimum threshold for making the playoffs since the introduction of the shootout. Considering they only have 19 wins to date, that seems like too tall an order for this gang.

The season won't get any easier for Brian Burke, who is poised to be a seller at the trade deadline. Leading scorer Nik Antropov and top defenseman Tomas Kaberle are the most frequently-cited items on the trading block, though it's hard to imagine any of the Leafs are truly untouchable. Dark days ahead for a franchise that is lacking in leadership and direction.

Perhaps the worst part of their demise is the anitclimax of Curtis Joseph's career. Vesa Toskala has been arguably the worst #1 goaltender in the league, with a .883 save percentage, and young Justin Pogge has been shelled behind an uninspired defense. Yet the once-mighty CuJo will still be the odd man out in Toronto, watching from the press box as his career dies a slow and silent death.

Updated Dead List:
Maple Leafs
Senators
Blues
Lightning
Islanders
Thrashers

Death Watch Update

The Death Watch has been strangely quiet these past few weeks, as several teams are pulling a mid-season David Blaine act. Here's a look at how things have shaken out since the All-Star Game:

DEAD
Nothing to see here. Move along.

Islanders
Thrashers
Lightning
Blues
Senators

ON THE DEATH WATCH
It would take a Herculean effort for these teams to make the playoffs... but that's why they play the games!

Maple Leafs - On 1/14 I laid down an ultimatum: the Maple Leafs must win 4 of their 8 remaining games in January or be declared "dead". True to form, they racked up a record of 3-2-2, the equivalent of 4 wins but somehow less impressive. Nevertheless, they picked up 8 critical points and will play meaningful games for at least another couple of weeks.

Kings - It's a little unsettling that the Kings are still in the playoff hunt this late in the season. They're 6 points out of the final Western seed, with a logjam of teams ahead of them. Three consecutive wins against conference competition has kept the young Kings alive, but they dropped the first of 5 games on their eastern road trip. Keep an eye on them this week for signs of flameout.

Predators - The Preds nearly coughed up their shot at the playoffs last month, finishing January with an ugly 1-4-0 streak. A key win over Edmonton has temporarily lifted their spirits, but their next 4 games are against key playoff-position competitors. This could make or break the Preds.

Avalanche - How are these guys not dead yet? Despite the second-worst record in the West and having lost 7 of 8, Colorado is a mere 6 points out of the playoffs. It's unfathomable that this crew could actually pull it off, but for the time being they still have a fighting chance at making the postseason cut. Missing both Sakic and Forsberg will hurt them on the ice, but at least they won't have to listen to those stories about the '96 Finals again.

STILL KICKING
Your playoff dark-horses, scrapping and clawing for a shot at Stanley.

Canucks - Oof. Losing 10 of 11, mostly against playoff competitors, has really taken a toll on the spirit of this franchise. They have a ton of road games left, but to be honest it might be better not to play in front of home crowds for a while. Though a single win could slingshot the Nuckleheads from 11th all the way up to 6th, you get the sense that this is a 2007 Senators situation. As you read Sundin's stat line (9gp, 2-1-3, -6) lower your head and quietly remember: "There but for the grace of Mike Gillis..."

Panthers - Now, this is more like it! Riding a 7-season playoff drought, having not won a series since the '96 Finals (ask Joe Sakic, I hear he has some time on his... um... hand.), playing before crowds of literally hundreds of fans, and on the brink of losing their franchise cornerstone defenseman... the Panthers are thriving. They rang up an 8-game undefeated streak (counting SOLs as ties, old-school style) in January and have recently beaten the Flyers and Habs. Sitting only a point out of 8th place, the Panthers might literally be playing for the future of their franchise.

Pens - Oy vey. Back in the dumps again. The Pens seem fatally flawed, the victims of a little too much roster movement and a key injury to the league's most underrated defenseman. Still, they have a rare duo of world-class forwards who can singlehandedly carry a team. That's usually enough to be competitive... unless of course you're the Lightning or Senators or Penguins.

Coyotes - Just when you thought Gretzky was going to end up coaching the Winnipeg Coyotes, this young team (finally) starts to pay dividends on years of hope and patience. But like any young team, the Yotes are wildly inconsistent. They've lost three straight by a combined score of 11-3, including dual shutouts. They may have to use their weak April schedule as a back door into the playoffs.

Stars - Is this team really in 6th place? Really? These guys? These guys? I guess the Avery suspension was the right move after all. Don't be fooled, though; Dallas' recent surge in the standings has been fuelled by wins over not-so-tough opponents. Aside from a couple of wins over the Wings, they've feasted on other bubble teams to pull themselves up the ladder one seed at a time. It's a great way to get into the playoff bracket, but don't expect much out of the Stars if they end up matched with the Sharks. Now, if they draw the Wings...

Blue Jackets - Ask me again next week, when we know a little more about Mason.

Wednesday Morning Miscellany

Because "miscellany" is one of the best words out there.

Bruins love, Pt. 1: Of TSN's Top 10 Plays of the first half, three involve the Bruins -- the Lucic glass-shattering hit, Thomas' save against the Devils, and Wheeler's sick 1-on-5 goal.

Death Watch Update: Down Goes Brown is waving the white flag on the Maple Leafs' season. He makes a strong case, given their most unseemly implosion over the past ten games, for moving them to the "Dead" portion of our Death Watch. Toronto is now nine points out of a playoff berth (38 points), trailing Pittsburgh (46), Florida (46), Carolina and Buffalo (47). Before the end of January, they play the Pens, the Bruins, the Thrashers, and the Canes twice (plus a couple of interconference games). This makes a playoff run unlikely, but not out of the realm of possibility.

Ultimatum -- Toronto must win at least four of these games or be moved to "Dead" status.

Bruins love, Pt. 2: Puck Daddy gives out three stars each day. After last night's game, the Bruins took stars #1 AND #2. Jumbo Joe got #3, making it a sort-of-but-not-really trifecta despite several other important games going on.

Should I Stay Or Should I Go?: Blueland Outsider came up with this nifty little conversation-starter, which is probably more engaging when nearly every member of your franchise is on the "go" list. Never afraid to steal someone else's idea, I offer this sample of Bruins conundrums:

Sturm - Go. Everyone loves Das German, but let's be real. $3.5m for 25 or fewer goals a season is wasted cap space. It's harsh, but... if he wasn't having injury problems it might be different. With so many RFAs coming up this summer, it's salary-dump time.

Bergeron - Stay. At least long enough to see whether he's still got it.

More to come.

Bruins love, Pt. 3: Last night's game is the front-page story on nhl.com, espn.com's NHL section, and a double-item on Puck Daddy. Habs fans continue to whine about a three-minute power play that "decided the game" in the second period, which pretty much proves we're in their heads. Sweet.

Drinking Game: View From The Cheap Seats has a nice little Caps/Pens drinking game. If the Pens get their shit together and make the playoffs, they'll almost certainly be somewhere in the 6-8 seed range -- if they draw the Caps, there's a possibility you could have 7 drinking games in a two-week period! There MUST be an equivalent to this for Bruins/Habs.

A little perspective: At this point we've got a nice cushion for the #1 seed in the East -- but the season's only half over. Ask Ottawa what half a season of good hockey gets you.

Starting yesterday, we began the single most important part of our season schedule. In our next 13 games, we face four powder-puff opponents: the Isles on Thursday, the Blues and Leafs next week, and Ottawa on 2/5.

The other nine opponents are, in order: Caps, Caps, Devils, Rangers, Habs, Flyers, Flyers, Sharks, Devils. That would be all five teams chasing us in the standings and all significant Eastern playoff contenders, plus the Western favorite. Our record against this group will decide whether we need to defend our playoff positioning in March, and send a very loud signal to the rest of the league as to whether we're prepared to actually win a round this spring.

And we get to do it all without Kessel.

Death Watch

Mirtle has released his annual playoff push standings, which gives us a simplified window into each team's playoff chances as we head toward the finish line.

The great thing about these standings is that it allows us to officially begin a Death Watch for the teams who aren't going to make the cut. On the flip side it can give us a pretty good idea who has already unofficially clinched a berth -- though last year's Sens proved that home-ice seeds can't be predicted until at least March.

Based on Mirtle's standings, here's how the Death Watch shakes out so far*:

DEAD
Islanders - Expect the Fishsticks to go into firesale mode during the month of Feburary. They're done and have nothing to compete for except Tavares.
Thrashers - Nothing has gone right for this franchise since the lockout, and this will simply be another wasted season. They have no chance at winning 2/3rds of their games from here on.
Lightning - One would think that a team stocked with high-end talent and lots of veteran grinders would have a shot at the 8th seed. Not the case with this dysfunctional group.
Blues - They were a darkhorse to begin with, and didn't get a break all year. Without Kariya they don't stand a chance.
Senators - The Sens' current 8-game road trip has only added nails to their coffin. They're 1-for-6 with games still to play in Buffalo and Boston... and their final 6 games of the season are all against playoff qualifiers plus a season-closer at rival Toronto.

ON THE DEATH WATCH
Kings - Here's where things get interesting. Los Angeles would have to put together a 26-18 finish in order to reach 90 points, which is a bare-minimum threshold for playoff qualifiers. That's a tall order, but the Kings roster is stuffed with great young talent -- they lack only a hot goalie to have a chance at a playoff run. We should know whether they belong on the "dead" list in about two weeks.
Stars - They've been better since Avery's suspension, but Dallas is still inconsistent and lacks a playoff mojo. Having to play three games each against Detroit and San Jose could seal their season.
Blue Jackets - The time is now for Columbus, which plays ill-timed games in Detroit and Washington this week. Currently, they're only a point out of 8th place. They have a favorable late-season schedule, but are a flawed team and will need a lot of help if they don't pick up a few major upsets.
Maple Leafs - The Team That Wouldn't Die is somehow still in contention for a playoff seed. Could they go 27-18 down the stretch? Not unless they make a major trade for a true #1 goalie. Would you put it past Brian Burke?

STILL KICKING
Panthers - Believe it, this motley crew could actually make the playoffs. Don't forget their hot run at the end of last season that briefly resurrected hopes of postseason hockey in Miami. They've already ripped off a similar streak this season, and since the New Year have demolished the Pens and tied the Habs.
Avalanche - Colorado has just enough top-end talent to keep pace and wait for someone else to slip. The Avs beat the Wings twice in December, and also served up victories over Vancouver, Nashville and Minnesota. If they can consistently win games against other bubble teams, they'll stay in the playoff equation until the final weeks.
Predators - The Other Team That Wouldn't Die has a tough road to travel, but they could be the club that inexplicably sneaks in the back door. Trotz gets 100% out of his spartan roster, and the Preds still have three homestands of 4+ games left to play. A 26-17-1 finish is not out of the question. However, their current losing streak has to be reversed immediately for them to have a chance.

* Based not only on standings and Mirtle's calculations, but also their darkhorse potential as measured by upcoming opponents, likelihood of a firesale at the trade deadline, injury problems, team history and quality of coaching.